#Nasrallah believes the US is forcing two options on #Lebanon: Starvation or disarmament of #Hezbollah. #Nasrallah assertively chooses war rather than succumbing to pressure - a unilateral choice in a divided society. Implications:
(1/6)
(1/6)
Social fragmentation and deeper divides will weaken the state and allow militia/party groups to thrive. Anti-#Hezbollah sentiment will be massaged by political opponents and the international community.
(2/6)
(2/6)
Long stalemate ahead unlikely to lead to civil conflict for a number of reasons: #Hezbollah's advanced intelligence & security apparatus will prevent it, 2008 (May 8) conflict has revoked any direct confrontation with #Hezbollah, & Sunni groups in #Lebanon remain moderate
(3/6)
(3/6)
#Nasrallah's economic alternatives (trade with #Iran and #China) are questionable (but a good negotiation tool). However, #Hezbollah doesn't control political decision-making and opponents are likely to reject such propositions, making exit strategies more difficult.
(4/6)
(4/6)
#Hezbollah's power & support base are likely to remain intact. #Hezbollah has expanded global economic reach and has sufficient $ to finance activities. Members & loyalists view resistance as an ideology & a belief system that has demonstrated efficacy.
(5/6)
(5/6)
Only a unified political front can produce constructive negotiations with the international community. Otherwise, it is a no-win game (esp. for Lebanese citizens) and the solution will remain at the mercy of regional actors and contingent on US-Iran relations.
(6/6)
(6/6)
