Mit 10% ist der Anteil der Geimpften an allen Corona-Intensivpatienten in Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich übrigens immer noch niedrig. Dafür kommen mehrere Ursachen in Frage. (1/n)…
Die Älteren sind in Deutschland bekanntlich nicht so gut durchgeimpft wie in manch anderen Staaten. Da die Älteren häufiger schwer erkranken, können einige %punkte Unterschied das Verhältnis auf den Intensivstationen sehr leicht u. deutlich hin zu den Ungeimpften verlagern. (2/n)
Das wäre eine ernüchternde Interpretation. Optimistischer gedacht wäre die Möglichkeit, dass die Dominanz von BioNTech unter den Älteren und die relativ langen Impfabstände in D. die Impfeffektivität immer noch sehr hoch halten. Und immerhin schon 1 Mio. Booster verimpft. (3/n)
Es kann aber auch viele weitere Faktoren geben, die das aktuelle Risiko einer schweren Erkrankung für Geimpfte bzw. Ungeimpfte beeinflussen, bspw. räumliche Cluster von Corona, die nicht unbedingt beständig sein müssen. (4/n)

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More from @AndreasShrugged

26 Sep
Germany is voting today. Time to give the major parties a persuasion granding for the respective campaigns they have run. #Germanyvotes #btw21
CDU/CSU: F - Low-energy vibe of Laschet, everything online is an embarassement, the party officials lack rhetorical skills, late and stale fear persuasion against (possible) far-left coalition. Merz, who was there to active conservative and economically liberal voters, was a dud.
SPD: A - Cleverly installed their rather blank candidate as legitimate Merkel successor, shook off Scholz' past mistakes, occupied the calm space between CDU/CSU and Greens, made ridiculous pension guarantees without blushing.
Read 7 tweets
15 Sep
Interesting background on the (many) "inventors" of the mRNA vaccines. Almost every researcher involved seems to have faced the chance of failing forever at least once.…
From what's written there, it seems at least plausible that Robert Malone got sidelined by his not-so-nice advisor, getting only little credit for his early steps, and more importantly, not getting the chance to continue. So, very possible he simply got the shit end of the stick.
Still, his grand-standing as "the" inventor seems overblown. And the dubious things he's been spreading nowadays have a vibe of "If I don't get credit, I'll rather burn it down!" Not sure what peace of mind this will earn him.
Read 4 tweets
5 Sep
1) A new podcast episode with virologist @c_drosten dropped this week (in German). I'll translate some excerpts that could be summarized as "Path to Endemic Covid-19". Starts at around 1:09:30. All errors in the following are my own. Full episode:
2) "After we had realized we will have the vaccine, it became clear what the vaccine can do: The vaccine helps society to make the step towards the endemic situation – learning to live with the virus after vaccinations have achieved a population-level of protection."
3) "Then the virus won’t be gone – it was clear from the beginning that the virus will continue to circulate, otherwise we wouldn’t have talked about it becoming endemic."
Read 13 tweets
30 Aug
1,5 Jahre Corona und sowohl Medien als auch Akademiker verwechseln immer noch die verschiedenen Sterblichkeitsmaße, was zu irreführenden Meldungen wie dieser hier führt, @WDRinvestigativ @WDRaktuell @OnkelPunk. Kurze Erklärung:
Nicht 0,03% der infizierten Kinder sind gestorben, sondern 0,03% der bestätigten Fälle unter Kindern. Dh hier handelt es sich um eine Fallsterblichkeitsrate (Case Fatality Rate CFR), nicht um eine Infektionssterblichkeitsrate (IFR). Das steht auch im verlinkten Dokument der AAP. Image
Warum wichtig? Wegen Dunkelziffer: Fälle<<Infektionen. Dh dividiert man die selbe Anzahl an Toten durch Fälle erhält man eine größere Rate als bei Division durch Infektionen. Deshalb CFR>IFR. Die CFR wirkt dramatischer, aber die IFR basiert auf wirklichem Infektionsgeschehen.
Read 6 tweets
23 Jul
💡Now published in the European Economic Review: "The effect of grandchildren on grandparental labor supply: Evidence from Europe" by @mBarslund and yours truly. Employment of👩‍🦳falls when grandchildren arrive, no significant effect on👨‍🦳.
Full text:… Image
Without going through the full paper, a good way to get a bit more out of your IV-LATE is to do a complier characterization. This allows us to consider aggregate implications for gender gaps at late working age due to intergenerational care arrangements. @TertiltMichele @mdoepke ImageImage
Interesting trade-offs: Grandmothers leaving employment to care for grandchildren probably allow their daughters to remain employed, basically shifting the gender gap to later age, with potential effects on pension inequality. Childcare outside of the family as potential fix.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
Let's assume there is a population of 1000 where 90% are fully vaccinated, vaccine efficacy against hospitalization is 85%, and the hospitalization rate if not vaccinated is 10% (the rate isn't important here bc it's about relative terms). Then...
...100x0.1=10 unvaccinated are hospitalized. And 900×0.1×(1-0.85)=13.5 vaccinated are hospitalized, make that 14. Then of all 24 hospitalized, the vaccinated account for 14/24=0.58=58%. Which gets us very close to the 60% reported by the article, in the simplest of all examples.
Why did I choose 90% vaccination rate even though the overall UK rate is lower than that? Because compared to the highly vaccinated older age groups, the young ones produce way fewer hospitalizations whether vaccinated or not, so they don't affect the totals that much.
Read 5 tweets

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