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Andreas Backhaus Profile picture
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23 Jul, 4 tweets, 4 min read
💡Now published in the European Economic Review: "The effect of grandchildren on grandparental labor supply: Evidence from Europe" by @mBarslund and yours truly. Employment of👩‍🦳falls when grandchildren arrive, no significant effect on👨‍🦳.
Full text: sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Without going through the full paper, a good way to get a bit more out of your IV-LATE is to do a complier characterization. This allows us to consider aggregate implications for gender gaps at late working age due to intergenerational care arrangements. @TertiltMichele @mdoepke ImageImage
Interesting trade-offs: Grandmothers leaving employment to care for grandchildren probably allow their daughters to remain employed, basically shifting the gender gap to later age, with potential effects on pension inequality. Childcare outside of the family as potential fix.
The paper uses @SHARE_MEA data; I presented the first version at the @Netspar Pension Workshop in 2019, where I received very constructive feedback. A working paper was disseminated by @EconPolEurope. #FACTAGE funding from @jpimybl @belspo. @bib_bund @PopulationEU @HIVA_KULeuven

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More from @AndreasShrugged

Andreas Backhaus Profile picture
19 Jul
Let's assume there is a population of 1000 where 90% are fully vaccinated, vaccine efficacy against hospitalization is 85%, and the hospitalization rate if not vaccinated is 10% (the rate isn't important here bc it's about relative terms). Then...
...100x0.1=10 unvaccinated are hospitalized. And 900×0.1×(1-0.85)=13.5 vaccinated are hospitalized, make that 14. Then of all 24 hospitalized, the vaccinated account for 14/24=0.58=58%. Which gets us very close to the 60% reported by the article, in the simplest of all examples.
Why did I choose 90% vaccination rate even though the overall UK rate is lower than that? Because compared to the highly vaccinated older age groups, the young ones produce way fewer hospitalizations whether vaccinated or not, so they don't affect the totals that much.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Backhaus Profile picture
12 Jul
Call me pedantic, but I insist that journalists need to know the difference between case fatality rate, infection fatality rate, and mortality rate when making big statements about Covid. @dwallacewells mixes these up, resulting in an unsupported claim. @NYMag @intelligencer
So the first part is correct, as provided by the source: COVID-19 IFR for children aged 5-9 not higher than 0.001%. Note the same is not true for the younger children aged 0-4 and older ones aged 10-14.
nature.com/articles/s4158…
So what "about one-tenth the risk of flu in that age group"? The source claims a COVID-19 "mortality rate" of 0.009% in Florida and a flu "mortality rate" of 0.01% for the age group 14 and younger. It also says/quotes that 0.009% is "far below" 0.01%(???).
healthleadersmedia.com/covid-19/true-…
Read 10 tweets
Andreas Backhaus Profile picture
9 Jul
1) Kleiner Thread, warum ich skeptisch auf die Schätzung aus #Israel blicke, dass #Biontech wegen #Delta nur noch zu 64% effektiv gegen Infektion und symptomatische Erkrankung sei. Nur ein Indiz in den Daten, (noch) kein Gegenbeweis:
tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/…
2) Die Effektivität der Impfung wurde hier nicht mehr in einer randomisierten Studie gemessen, was inzwischen auf die meisten kursierenden Zahlen zutrifft. D.h. man vergleicht zwar weiterhin Geimpfte u. Ungeimpfte, aber die beiden Gruppen sind nicht von vornherein vergleichbar.
3) Sehr viele Faktoren können die Vergleichbarkeit u. damit die Validität der geschätzten Effektivität beeinflussen: Verhalten, unterschiedl. Beschränkungen u. Tests für G u. UnG, Demografie, u. bei kleinen Fallzahlen auch einfach zufällige, nicht gleichverteilte Ereignisse.
Read 10 tweets
Andreas Backhaus Profile picture
8 Jul
1) Now that #Israel's Ministry of Health has released more info and data on the 64% estimate of #BionTech #Pfizer effectiveness against infection and symptomatic illness from #delta, my scepticism about this estimate remains fairly intact. Why?
2) With #delta spreading, I would expect an uptick in infections and symptomatic illness also among the unvaccinated. But this hasn't happened, essentially. Vaccination rate was fairly stable in IL during this period, so no change in group sizes. Previously infected are excluded.
3) In relative terms, infections have increased 6-fold among the vaccinated but decreased by 17% among the unvaccinated. This seems very counterintuitive during the spread of a more infectious variant - if all other variables had been held constant and they probably haven't been.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Backhaus Profile picture
5 Jun
A fun drinking game would be to sip whenever you can google actual Covid19 restrictions that were issued around the same time that @BretWeinstein and @HeatherEHeying suggest Ivermectin started having an effect. To begin, Czechia went into hard lockdown. 🍻
cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemie_…
For Slovakia, their death curve seems wrong, by the way, as there actually was another uptick in deaths after April 1. Sometimes it's useful to check the materials you get from other people before using them.
Anyway, of course, also Slovakia tightened Covid19 measures near the peak in cases, which was reached on March 10 in that wave. 🥂
usnews.com/news/world/art…
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Backhaus Profile picture
27 Apr
Journalismus und Wissenschaft haben durch Corona eine seltsame Beziehung zueinander entwickelt. Die funktioniert in etwa so: Ein Wissenschaftler schreibt am Wochenende ein Dokument über Corona. Er übertreibt seine Ergebnisse maßlos, speichert ein PDF und läd es hoch. 1/n
Weder muss er Meinung und wissenschaftliche Befunde strikt trennen, noch unterliegt sein Dokument irgendeiner Qualitätskontrolle. Er ahnt allerdings, dass es ein dankbares Publikum für seine meinungsstarken wenngleich wissenschaftlich belanglosen oder falschen Worte gibt. 2/n
So muss er nur noch darauf warten, dass dieses Publikum sein Dokument entdeckt, oder er hilft ggf etwas nach. Sobald sein Geschreibsel in einem Tweet auf "Studie findet: Lockdowns..." vermarket wurde, ist er aus dem Schneider: confirmation bias macht alles zum Selbstläufer. 3/n
Read 6 tweets

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