1) A new podcast episode with virologist @c_drosten dropped this week (in German). I'll translate some excerpts that could be summarized as "Path to Endemic Covid-19". Starts at around 1:09:30. All errors in the following are my own. Full episode:
2) "After we had realized we will have the vaccine, it became clear what the vaccine can do: The vaccine helps society to make the step towards the endemic situation – learning to live with the virus after vaccinations have achieved a population-level of protection."
3) "Then the virus won’t be gone – it was clear from the beginning that the virus will continue to circulate, otherwise we wouldn’t have talked about it becoming endemic."
4) "The use of the term `herd immunity’ in public debate has been sloppy – some have understood it as a situation of eradication of the virus. But this was never the goal."
5) "Without the vaccine, we couldn’t tolerate the step towards endemicity just like that. [In Germany] we can’t take this step this Fall either given our low vaccination rate – the death toll is too high."
6) "We need to lower the deadliness so that the virus can spread subtly in the population. We want SARS2 to become a common cold – that’s the endemic situation. Achieving that depends on us and on the vaccination rate."
7) "The window for the step towards endemicity narrows with waning vaccine effects. We could say, `OK let’s boost’, but actually, it’s not the aim to vaccinate again and again. I think the majority of infectious disease biologists and physicians currently says the endemicity..."
8) "...is a common cold situation – but then we’re also in a situation where the `booster shot’ doesn’t happen here [via injection] but via recurring contacts with the virus, so that population immunity will become more and more resilient. This will generate longer-lasting,..."
9) "...more robust mucosal immunity. How I would like to become immune: I want to have a vaccine-induced immunity and on top of that, I want to have my first generic infection, and the second, and the third. Then I know I will have long-lasting immunity and I will only..."
10) "...encounter the virus every few years like I encounter the other coronaviruses. I can take responsibility for that as a healthy adult–other groups can’t and I can only do that because I’ve been vaccinated twice. Population-wide, we can't do that [in Germany] at the moment."
11) "Because many people can't shoulder this individual responsibility. You see that in [unvaccinated] people who come down with severe Covid saying in hindsight: 'If only someone had properly explained it to me, then I would had chosen my individual responsibility differently.'"
12) Unsurprisingly, the title of the episode is "We need to vaccinate our way out of the pandemic". It's very rich, also covering boosters, vaccinations for children, and how we could approach the school situation in Fall. I hope to get a full transcript translated next week.
13) An addition: Drosten says he personally would take a booster shot if offered and that booster shots generally are working great. Just personally(!), he would forgo it right now for the sake of deliveries to developing countries.

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More from @AndreasShrugged

30 Aug
1,5 Jahre Corona und sowohl Medien als auch Akademiker verwechseln immer noch die verschiedenen Sterblichkeitsmaße, was zu irreführenden Meldungen wie dieser hier führt, @WDRinvestigativ @WDRaktuell @OnkelPunk. Kurze Erklärung:
Nicht 0,03% der infizierten Kinder sind gestorben, sondern 0,03% der bestätigten Fälle unter Kindern. Dh hier handelt es sich um eine Fallsterblichkeitsrate (Case Fatality Rate CFR), nicht um eine Infektionssterblichkeitsrate (IFR). Das steht auch im verlinkten Dokument der AAP. Image
Warum wichtig? Wegen Dunkelziffer: Fälle<<Infektionen. Dh dividiert man die selbe Anzahl an Toten durch Fälle erhält man eine größere Rate als bei Division durch Infektionen. Deshalb CFR>IFR. Die CFR wirkt dramatischer, aber die IFR basiert auf wirklichem Infektionsgeschehen.
Read 6 tweets
23 Jul
💡Now published in the European Economic Review: "The effect of grandchildren on grandparental labor supply: Evidence from Europe" by @mBarslund and yours truly. Employment of👩‍🦳falls when grandchildren arrive, no significant effect on👨‍🦳.
Full text: sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Without going through the full paper, a good way to get a bit more out of your IV-LATE is to do a complier characterization. This allows us to consider aggregate implications for gender gaps at late working age due to intergenerational care arrangements. @TertiltMichele @mdoepke ImageImage
Interesting trade-offs: Grandmothers leaving employment to care for grandchildren probably allow their daughters to remain employed, basically shifting the gender gap to later age, with potential effects on pension inequality. Childcare outside of the family as potential fix.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
Let's assume there is a population of 1000 where 90% are fully vaccinated, vaccine efficacy against hospitalization is 85%, and the hospitalization rate if not vaccinated is 10% (the rate isn't important here bc it's about relative terms). Then...
...100x0.1=10 unvaccinated are hospitalized. And 900×0.1×(1-0.85)=13.5 vaccinated are hospitalized, make that 14. Then of all 24 hospitalized, the vaccinated account for 14/24=0.58=58%. Which gets us very close to the 60% reported by the article, in the simplest of all examples.
Why did I choose 90% vaccination rate even though the overall UK rate is lower than that? Because compared to the highly vaccinated older age groups, the young ones produce way fewer hospitalizations whether vaccinated or not, so they don't affect the totals that much.
Read 5 tweets
12 Jul
Call me pedantic, but I insist that journalists need to know the difference between case fatality rate, infection fatality rate, and mortality rate when making big statements about Covid. @dwallacewells mixes these up, resulting in an unsupported claim. @NYMag @intelligencer
So the first part is correct, as provided by the source: COVID-19 IFR for children aged 5-9 not higher than 0.001%. Note the same is not true for the younger children aged 0-4 and older ones aged 10-14.
nature.com/articles/s4158…
So what "about one-tenth the risk of flu in that age group"? The source claims a COVID-19 "mortality rate" of 0.009% in Florida and a flu "mortality rate" of 0.01% for the age group 14 and younger. It also says/quotes that 0.009% is "far below" 0.01%(???).
healthleadersmedia.com/covid-19/true-…
Read 10 tweets
9 Jul
1) Kleiner Thread, warum ich skeptisch auf die Schätzung aus #Israel blicke, dass #Biontech wegen #Delta nur noch zu 64% effektiv gegen Infektion und symptomatische Erkrankung sei. Nur ein Indiz in den Daten, (noch) kein Gegenbeweis:
tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/…
2) Die Effektivität der Impfung wurde hier nicht mehr in einer randomisierten Studie gemessen, was inzwischen auf die meisten kursierenden Zahlen zutrifft. D.h. man vergleicht zwar weiterhin Geimpfte u. Ungeimpfte, aber die beiden Gruppen sind nicht von vornherein vergleichbar.
3) Sehr viele Faktoren können die Vergleichbarkeit u. damit die Validität der geschätzten Effektivität beeinflussen: Verhalten, unterschiedl. Beschränkungen u. Tests für G u. UnG, Demografie, u. bei kleinen Fallzahlen auch einfach zufällige, nicht gleichverteilte Ereignisse.
Read 10 tweets
8 Jul
1) Now that #Israel's Ministry of Health has released more info and data on the 64% estimate of #BionTech #Pfizer effectiveness against infection and symptomatic illness from #delta, my scepticism about this estimate remains fairly intact. Why?
2) With #delta spreading, I would expect an uptick in infections and symptomatic illness also among the unvaccinated. But this hasn't happened, essentially. Vaccination rate was fairly stable in IL during this period, so no change in group sizes. Previously infected are excluded.
3) In relative terms, infections have increased 6-fold among the vaccinated but decreased by 17% among the unvaccinated. This seems very counterintuitive during the spread of a more infectious variant - if all other variables had been held constant and they probably haven't been.
Read 5 tweets

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