After apparently "eliminating" covid for nearly one year, Singapore is now reporting one of the highest case rates on Earth, bested only by the nations of the Caribbean and Balkans:
Singapore had been following a "zero covid" strategy but opted to begin re-opening once the vast majority of the population had been fully vaccinated.

Unfortunately, having 9 of 10 adults fully vaccinated has not prevented an "exponential" rise in transmission:
More disturbingly, a spike in fatalities has followed cases in Singapore, despite astronomical vaccination uptake:
In fact, the CFR in Singapore has worsened post-vax compared to the first wave in 2020 with 83% of all covid deaths landing after the vast majority of the population had been vaccinated:
However, the cumulative CFR in Singapore is only 0.1% (about the same as the annual flu) and total deaths remain miniscule:
The low fatality rate in Singapore is most likely due to the lack of obesity and large numbers of young, healthy migrant workers as well as, perhaps, prior immunity to similar viruses.
Despite the rising cases and fatalities, Singapore appears to have fully abandoned "zero covid" and now accepts that the only path forward is to live with the virus.

After all, with nearly everyone vaccinated, what other choice do they have?

Apparently, public health officials and nearly 1/4 of the population would prefer to remain hiding, indefinitely, but the government has recognized that despite the vaccines failing to prevent the spread of covid, they must reopen the country.…
The dramatic growth in cases & deaths in Singapore has not resulted from mass gatherings or people throwing off their masks. In fact, mask mandates remain and even outdoors more than 90% are masked.

The city itself remains eerily quiet:

Thankfully, despite the protests of those in public health, Singapore appears committed to reopening - borders are no longer closed.

Oddly, despite the vax clearly not halting spread w/i Singapore, they are only allowing entry to those fully vaccinated.…
One reason they've given up on an elimination strategy could have something to do with this;…
I'm sure the decision has nothing to do with the lives of migrant workers who have been sentenced to an unimaginable living hell for 18 months:…
In the end, closing borders, imprisoning populations, mandating masks, and vaccinating nearly every adult has not stopped covid from coming to Singapore, just as it will come for us all.

All they have accomplished is delaying the inevitable while immiserating their people.

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More from @Humble_Analysis

13 Oct
The flu is back (multiple strains) - the Indian subcontinent from Pakistan through Bangladesh has seen the return of influenza alongside the rapid disappearance of covid-19. Image
Nearly 1/4 of the Earth's population reside within these four nations, each reporting high seroprevelance from natural infection and low rates of vaccination.

The evidence appears to indicate that natural infection can end a pandemic - but not vaccination (see Singapore). Image
None of these nations have fully vaccinated even 25% of their population and yet Covid is disappearing and the flu has returned.

It seems that the only way past a pandemic is through it - by natural infection. Image
Read 10 tweets
1 Oct
Lockdown going swimmingly in Australia...
Two MONTHS of lockdown. Police beating people in the streets. Every aspect of your life micromanaged by the world's dumbest people.

Luckily, it was all pointless.…
How long until Australia admits that zero covid was doomed to fail from the beginning? That destroying your society was all pain and no gain? Will the public health tyrants ever apologize and be held to account?…
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
In the USA, the end of summer wave is receding rapidly in the South and West. Unfortunately, the autumn wave has now begun in the upper midwest.

These are the same states which experienced an autumn wave in 2020.

Oddly, the SEC states have cases falling fastest...
From Michigan to Montana, cases are rising in concert, just as they did in these same states this time last year.

In every one of these states, cases are higher this year than last year, despite widespread vaccination.
Hospitalizations are rising in each of these states, as well with the least vaccinated states are faster acceleration than the most vaccinated.

But, in all of these states, hospitalizations are higher this year than on this date in 2020:
Read 5 tweets
23 Sep reports weekly "excess" mortality in 23 European nations; through Week 36 of 2021, there has been no significant excess for those under 45 years of age:
For those over 75, deaths were dramatically below normal in 2019 leading to excess deaths in 2020.

For those over 85, deaths in 2021 YTD are now below normal (compare to 2017/2018).

The ~30% of covid deaths driven by those >85 seems to have not created any excess mortality.
For those 45-74 in Europe, 2021 has seen significantly more excess deaths than 2020 (through Week 36), despite widespread vaccination campaigns.

This is especially true for 45-64, where 2020 deaths were on par with 2018.

Why is this year worse than last year for these cohorts?
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
Six months ago, Vietnam had supposedly "handled" covid via masks, border controls, and contact tracing.

They were held up as a model for the world.…
Today, they have been in lockdown for over a month; streets are barricaded; people are confined to their homes.

"It is like living in a jail," 72-year-old Hanoi resident Ho Thi Anh said.…
The army has been called in to enforce the lockdown.

People are being sentenced to 5 year prison terms for breaking quarantine.…
Read 5 tweets
9 Sep
Nepal: seroprevelance survey in Jul-Aug indicates at least 68.6% of population has already recovered from Covid.

Given reported deaths of 11K, this indicates an infection fatality rate of 0.06% in Nepal.…
Nepal had two waves of Covid infection; cases peaked and began a rapid descent at a time when only 1% of the population had been vaccinated.

Currently, with cases continuing to decline rapidly, less than 20% of the nation has been vaccinated.
Daily deaths in Nepal have declined 92% off peak, driven either by seasonality or by immunity from natural infection.

Given that >70% of the nation has been infected and recovered, natural immunity may now play a larger role in suppression than seasonality.
Read 5 tweets

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