So today, @WHO unveiled a new team of scientists from around the world that will guide the search for the origins of #covid19 but also work on future outbreaks and more generally on emerging pathogens.
That might be criticised by some, @angie_rasmussen told me. But: "I think it is important for continuity and to assert that the first mission wasn’t a total wash"
@WHO@alexandraphelan@angie_rasmussen 11 of the 26 members are women, which is a good start, though, as @alexandraphelan told me,
"especially given historical inequities, international expert groups like this really should be aiming for more than 42% women"
Well, the terms of reference for SAGO (Scientific Advisory Group on the Origins of Novel Pathogens) as it’s officially known suggests they won’t get bored.
- help develop a “global framework to define and guide studies into the origins of emerging and re-emerging pathogens of epidemic and pandemic potential”
- advise on prioritizing those studies and field investigations
@WHO@alexandraphelan@angie_rasmussen The hope is that such a framework will make future investigations less contentious.
As @DrTedros and colleagues write today in Science: “Each time, scientists at the WHO and elsewhere faced challenges—not only scientific, but also logistical and political” science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
“If I didn’t think that, I wouldn’t have agreed to be a part of this”, @MarionKoopmans told me. Though she also acknowledged that the sheer size of the group won’ make things easier.
@WHO@alexandraphelan@angie_rasmussen@DrTedros@MarionKoopmans And for future outbreaks?
“Setting up a group like SAGO is a sensible idea,” @Leendertz_Lab says. “But it is important that this should not deter independent groups who can be on the ground very fast once an outbreak is detected from doing their own work to investigate origins.”
It’s easy to criticize groups like this being set up, but to me it seems a smart move both in the short and the long term and I’m curious to see what this group of scientists from around the globe do.
As @DrMikeRyan said today: “All of the scientists joining this process understand those external pressures and the scrutiny, and the visibility of the process”
So let’s give them a chance to do their work and let’s see…
@DrMikeRyan And to be clear: These names have been put forward, but there is now a two-week window for any concerns about these members to be raised etc.
That is as it should be.
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"The number of weekly reported deaths from #covid19 continues to decline and is now at the lowest level in almost a year”, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser.
"But it’s still an unacceptably high level: almost 50,000 deaths a week, and the real number is certainly higher."
@DrTedros@WHO "Deaths are declining in every region except Europe, where several countries are facing fresh waves of cases and deaths”, says @drtedros.
@DrTedros@WHO “Of course, deaths are highest in the countries and populations with the least access to #covid19 vaccines”, says @DrTedros.
"We ask once again for the countries and companies that control the global supply of #covid19 vaccines to prioritize supply to COVAX and to AVAT now"
WHO’s expert group on immunization (SAGE) met last week to review evidence and is now recommending an additional #covid19 vaccine dose for two groups of people: 1. Anyone who is moderately or severely immunocompromised no matter which vaccine they received
2. Anyone 60 or over who received two doses of the inactivated vaccines from Sinopharm or Sinovac. (The evidence this is based on comes mostly from Latin American countries, where these have been used widely)
In both cases @WHO considers the additional dose to be part of the primary immunization series, so separate from the discussion about booster shots to shore up waning immunity.
“The development and approval of vaccines in record time took us to the summit of scientific achievement”, says @DrTedros in #covid19 presser.
“Now, we stand on the precipice of failure. If we don't make the benefits of science available to all people in all countries right now."
@DrTedros “High and upper middle income countries have used 75% of all vaccines produced so far, low income countries have received less than half of 1% of the world's vaccines”, says @DrTedros calling it a “horrifying inequity".
“In Africa, less than 5% of people are fully vaccinated."
@DrTedros "Today, WHO is launching the strategy to achieve global #COVID19 vaccination by mid-2022”, says @drtedros. Goal is 40% coverage in all countries by the end of this year, 70% by middle of next year.
"This is not a supply problem. It is an allocation problem"
A new preprint by @PeterDaszak, @nycbat and others attempts to show where the next coronavirus pandemic is most likely to begin and argues that there may be 400,000 hidden infections with SARSr-CoVs every year.
@PeterDaszak@nycbat First of all:
Yes, that is a really big number. And yes there is HUGE uncertainty in that.
The confidence interval goes all the way down to a single case and all the way up to more than 35 million!
We’ll get to that.
But let’s take a quick look at what the researchers did.
@PeterDaszak@nycbat They created a detailed map of the habitats of 23 bat species known to harbor SARSr-CoVs, then overlaid it with data on where humans live to create a map showing where the risk of spillover is highest: southern China, Vietnam, Cambodia, and on Java and other islands in Indonesia
Only 2 African countries have vaccinated more than 40% of their population, says @DrTedros at #Covid19 presser.
“That's not because African countries don't have the capacity or the experience to roll out vaccines. It's because they have been left behind by the rest of the world."
@DrTedros “More than 5.7 billion doses have been administered globally, but only 2% of those have been administered in Africa”, says @drtedros
"This leaves people at high risk of disease and death exposed to a deadly virus against which many other people around the world enjoy protection."
@DrTedros "This does not only hurt the people of Africa. It hurts all of us”, says @drtedros.
"The longer vaccine inequity persists, the more the virus will keep circulating and changing, the longer the social and economic disruption will continue."
Last week I met Jeremy Farrar in Berlin and since then I’ve kept going over some of what he said, since it seems pretty crucial for the next phase of the pandemic in Europe. So a quick thread
(You can also hear him say some of this in our new @pandemiapodcast episode)
@pandemiapodcast At least in Europe, "what you're witnessing, I think at the moment is the shift from epidemic/pandemic state into an endemic state”, Farrar said.
“And none of us are really quite sure what that endemic state is going to look like.”
@pandemiapodcast The argument is simple: #SARSCoV2 is clearly not going away any time soon. As vaccines blunt some of the impact of the virus at the societal level, #covid19 may still be terrible and still cause disease and death but maybe at a level society can or will or has to accept.