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😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

14 Oct

So Ireland has had 4 waves of PCR positives. The first three waves look wave shaped. The latest looks like it has been artificially constrained somehow... this could be testing capacity, biased sampling, etc. Need not be deliberate either... but doesn't look like the prior waves

If I look at the shapes of the prior waves, the current wave lost its shape around July 22nd... this is the point at which approx 50% of the population were fully stabbed, 58% had two stabs and needed to wait a week while 67% had had their first stab

Now the thing to note about Ireland is that the official government advice is that fully stabbed people do not need to get tested if they are a close contact of a confirmed case, unless they develop symptoms www2.hse.ie/conditions/cov…

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😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

11 Oct

@OS51388957

Oh my.... Just got an email from my scraper bot... looks like the IMoH datadashboard is offline @OS51388957 @MatanHolzer @daridor @RanIsraeli @YaffaRaz

Oh dear: Due to maintenance activity, the site is currently unavailable. We apologize we make every effort to enable its availability as soon as possible Thank you for your patience.

datadashboard.health.gov.il is the site I’m talking about…

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😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

11 Oct

Getting very interesting reports from Israel about the lack of differences between the case rates vs vax status in situations where everyone is tested irrespective of vax status. Would seem to indicate no difference in infection levels, only severity of symptoms.

Of course this would confirm a bias of mine in that I have long suspected that the difference in case rates for vax vs non-vax has just been an artifact of reduced symptoms and perception of superpowers resulting from the use of a term (vaccination) outside of traditional context

But then you hear that just after the analysis was published and the IMoH coincidentally decided to publish a massive retrospective update of the data in question! Anyway I’ll post more when I have more…

Read 12 tweets

😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

9 Oct

Question: why do the Moderna and Pfizer jabs have to be kept at such low temperatures?
My understanding is that these are RNA strands encased in vesicles and at higher temperatures for too long they can escape the vesicles. Injected free RNA gets swept up so would be ineffective

Question: what is the difference between the Moderna and Pfizer jabs?
My understanding is that there may be some subtle differences in the exact RNA sequences, but the main difference is that the Moderna has 3-5x more RNA than the Pfizer

What if the lower concentrations on RNA in the jab means when administered outside of the well controlled trials a lot more of it is ineffective due to poor handling? Would Pfizer be less likely to actually deliver the RNA? Would side-effects be more in Moderna? So many question!

Read 4 tweets

😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

24 Sep

@waukema

So @waukema stumbled onto this. Seems there’s a H1N1 wave kicking off in Europe right now. That would indicate that Covid is a spent force as it’s stopped suppressing flu wdyt @FatEmperor @MLevitt_NP2013 source apps.who.int

@waukema

And @waukema found more at flunewseurope.org now 60 samples is not a wave *yet* but we’ve seen nothing all year… is that because all test capacity was diverted to Covid or was it because one ILI suppresses the others until@it is a spent force… I guess we’ll find out soon

Here’s a normal year graph for comparison. Note this graph starts at week 47 whereas we are just at week 37 so while 60 is small compared to the 13,000 at week 7, waves grow from small starts

Read 9 tweets

😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

21 Sep

https://twitter.com/connolly_s/status/1440242913854701569

Let's look at some data. 50% of the Irish population are day 60+. 10% day 120+. 4.3% day 180+. We currently have 13.5% of the population unvaccinated (including all 0-11yo). Consider medrxiv.org/content/10.110… even with is bias issues

https://twitter.com/connolly_s/status/1440242913854701569

The 4.3% vaccinated for more than 180 days -best case- have the same viral load as the 13.5% unvaccinated. That leaves 5.7% on days 120-180 with a Ct increase of 0.3 which corresponds to a viral load reduction of 19%. Then 40% on days 60-120 Ct increase of 0.7 or 39% lower load

Take a group of 20 people chosen at random (including 0-11yo). About 3 will be unvaxed. 1 will be 180+ days (same risk as unvax), 1 will be 120-180 days (81% risk), 8 will be 60-120 days (61% risk) so the 60+ days fully vax represent (1+0.81+8*0.61)/3=2.2x risk of unvaxed

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