Yeah - I think this is the most important point.
We're used to thinking about unemployment primarily with respect to business cycle/involuntary employment.
But this is point at something that is pretty different. Basically that there are some people at the margin where a small change in their incentives will drive them into or out of the labor force.
And that implies that this population was sort of ambivalent in the first place. ie, a parent weighing whether it makes financial sense to work and send the kids to daycare, or stay home with them.
That is, we're talking about people who are optimizing, and changing the incentives changes their behavior.
I think this might be a bit clearer if we think about "domestic production" vs "firm production" instead of employment/unemployment.
If we are subsidizing "firm production" some workers will move towards that. If we take it away, some will move back.
But they are making choices about what spheres to work in, given the existing trade-offs.

They aren't going to see their well being drastically reduced - we know they are optimizing!

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More from @besttrousers

12 Oct
Feels like we are all discussing what pieces of the Reconciliation Bill can be cut. But, especially after last Friday's job report, Congress should be looking for ways to put UI back in. Me at @NiskanenCenter:…
With the enhanced UI ending last month, a lot of people were hoping that we'd see a big jump in September's employment numbers. We didn't.
Between this and the evidence that accumulated over the summer, it's getting hard to argue that the enhanced UI benefits were the main problem holding the job market back.
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8 Oct
Quick pause in the jobs day discourse! Yesterday, a paper from the Becker Friedman Institute came out, with new estimated effects of the CTC on employment (🔼) and poverty (🔽). I've got a response at @niskanencenter here:…
First - this isn't a methodological critique. See for that, and I'm sure other folks are looking at the paper now.

But how should we interpret the findings as given?
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4 Oct
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@EconHembre A plausible defense of the EITC is something like:

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Basically, a lot of ideas sound good at a surface level, but the actually administrative infrastructure to deliver them might completely change how they are actually delivered.
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24 Sep
"Remember the Return-to-Work bonuses that states announced to great fanfare last spring?

In most states, very few people have actually managed to get the bonus.…
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4,269 people received the bonus, while UI continuing claims dropped by 79,055.
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Lots of discussion about the role of objectivity in research, jumping off of @Lauren_Farre11's blog post.

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This is just a nice example of the tensions that are often in play here. When we were designing the posters, we initially just did a mail merge with the administrative data to get the name for each house.

But no one actually uses the "official" name for those complexes.
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