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Molson Hart Profile picture
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15 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Our department of transportation secretary has been on leave since mid august 🤯

Amidst the greatest supply chain crisis this nation has ever seen Mayor Pete was on leave.

I thought that this was fake, that he was being scapegoated but it looks real.
Mystery solved @Bannedforself Image

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More from @Molson_Hart

Molson Hart Profile picture
17 Oct
Prediction: the US is going to economic war with China

Short thread on my thinking re: this video

tiktok.com/@financeyujie/…
1. She mentions that power has been cut in Guangdong and Jiangsu in Autumn, which is past peak power usage (for southern Jiangsu anyways) as Guangdong is pretty warm, they spend more power on A/C than heating. AFAIK power has not been cut in Shandong and north.
2. To me that indicates that it has nothing to do with a shortage. And in fact she says it has nothing do with a shortage (this woman who is pretty hot imo does not strike me as being unaffiliated with the government). She says it is 3 things:
Read 12 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
13 Oct
Can a country become sustainably rich without a sizable manufacturing base?

Ways to get rich:

- resource extraction
- tourism
- financial services
- service outsourcing
- software
- manufacturing
- something else I’m missing?

1/n
There’s something special about manufacturing. It taps into all of your human capital. Compare it to tourism. Your people oriented people work the hotels and restaurants. You get a small construction industry, a bit of marketing but that’s it.

2/n
Whereas for manufacturing, your people oriented people do sales, some people can work the plants, you can have designers, managers (yes you get these with tourism too), software, and construction. All your human capital gets tapped.

3/n
Read 6 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
12 Oct
Huge bear market in office RE (adjusted for inflation and covered land plays) coming.

It’s not even arguable otherwise. Let’s move on. We’re done.

What is interesting is the follow on effects!

1/2
- less commuting will hurt non-destinational retail eg “never mind picking that up on the way back from work.”
- what happens to downtown office cores?
- what do we do with these buildings?
- do homes need to be redesigned bigger?

What else? It’s pretty interesting!

2/3
Just so we’re clear, I am not saying no one will go to an office. I am saying a many fewer people will. I don’t know what the percentage is but the fewer people go to the office the less of a benefit you get from going yourself so WFH has a negative network effect.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
8 Oct
The worst experience I've ever had on Twitter!

A lot of people have been asking me what happened, so here's a 🧵of how fucked up Twitter can get, not only for you, but for your family.
It all started at dinner when I decided to calculate the living expenses of someone I know.

I was amazed at how high they were considering how poorly he lived for what he was spending.

I thought to myself, "hmm this is interesting, I'll tweet it."

It went viral.

Most people didn't understand my point (which was not well articulated) and thought that I was suggesting that spending over $1mm/year was not extravagant.

And the guillotines came out.
Read 20 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
7 Oct
Economies and diseconomies of scale in management.

0 Employees.

With no one to manage, there is no one with whom to communicate. You will never be more efficient.

1/n
1 employee.

You now must communicate what, how, and why to the employee you manage. Efficiency falls from this communication. However, accountability is high because everything that happens in the department can be attributed to the one person.

2/n
2 employees.

Huge dropoff in efficiency, because, not only do the two employees need to communicate between themselves and you, but you need to know who is responsible for what. You must observe closely to reward fairly or no one will work hard.

3/n
Read 7 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
3 Oct
I tweeted about how much it costs to live in Manhattan and in between threats to guillotine me (someone even suggested a wood-chipper!) someone posted an interesting graph from the Fed showing wealth by percentile group.

It's pretty wild.

1/n
federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/da…
1989's Top 1% Share of Wealth: 23.6%
2021: 32.3%

1989's 90-99% Percentile Share of Wealth: 37.3%
2021: 37.7%

1989's 50-90% Percentile Share of Wealth: 35.5%
2021: 27.8%

1989's 0-50% Percentile Share of Wealth: 3.7%
2021: 2.3%

2/n
The most commonly cited solution to this problem is to "tax the rich" but since 1989 we've done that while the wealth share got worse.

Top tax rate went from 28% to 37%.

Not an apples to apples comparison because of inflation but rates also went down for low earners.

3/n
Read 7 tweets

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