The @EU_Commission @MarosSefcovic package create a big headache for @BorisJohnson & @DavidGHFrost - because they go further than both were expecting
But senior sources say UKG is still not resolved on compromise or conflict - & see risks & opportunities in both 1/
But senior sources say UKG is still not resolved on compromise or conflict - & see risks & opportunities in both 1/
Without such a significant offer, UK ministers believe Johnson would have triggered Article 16, probably by end-November, to suspend all or (more likely) part of protocol. But UKG now has no choice but to seriously engage in talks - not just go through the motions 2/
Johnson’s allies think movement on ECJ will be needed to tip balance in favour of peace vs war, but this is something EU will find VERY difficult to do. How can Bxl offer ECJ concessions on SM/goods to 3rd country while insisting on court's writ with member states (ie Poland)? 3/
Still, at some point, aides around @BorisJohnson recognise PM will reach a “fork in the road” & have to decide whether to settle for a deal or invoke Article 16. Those AGAINST compromise are arguing several things 4/
First, that it will make Johnson look weak after talking tough (even if he claims victory as he certainly will). Second, that compromise cd destabilise politics in Northern Ireland: as @duponline has threatened to collapse power-sharing executive unless Protocol is replaced 5/
Third, that compromise would create internal Tory party problems by rallying hardline backbench Brexiteers against @10DowningStreet. Fourth, that it would also undermine Johnson’s hopes of keeping Brexit alive as an issue until next election 6/
It's true some ministers think “banging on about Europe” cd give voters impression Johnson didn't get “Brexit done” & cite @YouGov poll showing 61% of Brits saying Govt is handling Brexit badly. But fact is many of PM's aides believe Brussels-bashing plays well in red wall 7/
Those URGING compromise worry about @POTUS @JoeBiden & UKG ambition & ability to replicate AUKUS with other countries if there's a rift with US. Implications for “Global Britain” etc. They think @BorisJohnson would have to consider geopolitical context when making his decision 8/
A trade war with EU - even if not immediate - would also aggravate domestic dislocations/supply chain problems in UK. The “official line” is to describe these issues as global but of course that would be more diff if further problems were clearly linked to new Brexit standoff 9/
Lastly, a prolonged trade dispute with EU would worsen UKG strained relationship with business, which is peeved about rises in corporate tax & NI contributions & Johnson’s suggestion it should increase wages for UK workers & end its “addiction” to cheap EU labour 10/
As it's poss to see, the debate in UKG has little/nothing do with NI. Will BJ opt for conflict or compromise? Who knows. Especially as I doubt Johnson & Frost know either. As with all things Brexit & this Govt, it's going to be a v close call - what some wd call a coin toss 11/
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