Updated the Punks model.
* fixed how we decay bids over time
* Hoodies & Beanies with better prices (median around 300Ξ)
* About 300 Punks in that 250-400Ξ ranges
* Bottom value 100.7Ξ, median 113.6Ξ -- has been steady
* Market cap 1.69mΞ ~ 6.5B USD
deepnftvalue.com/punks/attribut…
* fixed how we decay bids over time
* Hoodies & Beanies with better prices (median around 300Ξ)
* About 300 Punks in that 250-400Ξ ranges
* Bottom value 100.7Ξ, median 113.6Ξ -- has been steady
* Market cap 1.69mΞ ~ 6.5B USD
deepnftvalue.com/punks/attribut…
In the model, we obviously want to fit to bids (as minimum) and offers (as max) as well as predicting tomorrow's sale.
Realistically, this means decaying the weight on bids over time. Say a bid for past 3 day is 100%... do you still care about a bid (or sale) from month ago? Yes
Realistically, this means decaying the weight on bids over time. Say a bid for past 3 day is 100%... do you still care about a bid (or sale) from month ago? Yes
The question: hows quick to decay the data.
We now keep bids around for up to 120 days (!) -- seems high, but no Beanie has sold for two months.
No evidence that prices have dropped -- many relative to median/floor but not in absolute terms.
deepnftvalue.com/punks/attribut…
We now keep bids around for up to 120 days (!) -- seems high, but no Beanie has sold for two months.
No evidence that prices have dropped -- many relative to median/floor but not in absolute terms.
deepnftvalue.com/punks/attribut…
Obviously recent bids still have higher weight. We decay the weight quickly... then slowly. Larger bids (relative to median sale, as usual) also stay around longer. All smoothly with no cliffs.
Pretty small change -- a few lines of code and a lot of validation.
Bigger update to drop soon. And once this evolution wraps up, we'll start displaying a lot more historical values and graphs. Looking forward to that myself!
Bigger update to drop soon. And once this evolution wraps up, we'll start displaying a lot more historical values and graphs. Looking forward to that myself!
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