1/4 - France, Suisse, Italie, Espagne et Portugal: sont-ils les derniers bastions de calme sur le front #COVID19?
L'étau pandémique se resserre.
La très forte activité épidémique à l'est et au centre de l'Europe semble désormais percoler vers l'ouest (DE,AU,DK, NL, BE, UK, IRL).
2/4 - Les semaines à venir pourraient sceller l'évolution de la pandémie en Europe cet hiver:
Les nations très vaccinées qui ont conservé passe sanitaire et port du masque résisteront-elles mieux et plus longtemps que celles qui ne misent que sur leur forte couverture vaccinale?
3/4 - On constate que là où la couverture vaccinale est inférieure à 50%, les pays (Russie, Roumanie) rencontrent de grandes difficultés à juguler la vague de mortalité et l'engorgement de leurs hôpitaux. Ceux qui dépassent 70%, sans mesures associées (UK, IRL), souffrent aussi.
4/4 - La Suisse, l'Italie, la France qui maintiennent l'usage du passe sanitaire et le port du masque parviendront-elles à mieux limiter le rebond automno-hivernal qui se profile, que la Norvège, la Suède, et le Danemark qui ont levé la plupart de leurs mesures intérieures ?

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More from @FLAHAULT

17 Oct
1/6 - La situation épidémioliogique #COVID19 se tend à nouveau dans toute l'Europe.
En France, le rebond survient alors que la décrue (4234 cas le 6 octobre) n'avait pas atteint le niveau du 25 juin (1900 cas).
2/6 - Ainsi, si le rebond devait se confirmer les semaines à venir, l'accalmie (moins de 5000 cas /j) entre la 4ème et la 5ème vague pourrait n'avoir duré que 23 jours (du 26 septembre au 18 octobre), alors qu'elle avait duré 33 jours du 8 juin au 10 juillet dernier.
3/6 - Le Danemark connaît un rebond très analogue, après avoir connu une accalmie (moins de 433 cas/j) de 19 jours (du 12 septembre au 30 septembre). Or le Danemark a levé le Coronapass (équivalent du passe sanitaire) et les obligations de port du masque dès le 10 septembre.
Read 6 tweets
17 Oct
1/9 - Oct 17 to Oct 23 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Europe -
#COVID19 epidemiological tension is growing in NW:
- Green only in Spain and Italy;
- Red (R-eff>0.9) everywhere else:
FL=1.10; FR=1.07; DE=1.06; BE=1.05; PT=1.01; SE=0.98; NO=0.95; CH=0.93 moving away from their safe zones;
DK=1.16; NL=1.23, IRL=1.15 rising. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe are experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality:
Romania (R-eff=1.12, 32.4% 1 dose); Latvia=1.20 (52.4); BG=1.18 (37.5); CZ=1.26 (57.6);SLK=1.14 (45.5);RU=1.09 (34.4);UKR=1.17 (17.9);PL=1.26 (52.7). ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
17 Oct
1/5 - By Oct 23, France is foreseen to reach 5,433 new #COVID19 cases, with 20 deaths/days, if the trend remains at same pace (R-eff=1.07); 75.8% 1 dose.

Thread: regional forecast for Oct 17 to Oct 20.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/5 - Three Régions only remain in their #COVID19 safety zones, with very low [medium] levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Normandie;
Réunion;
[Mayotte].
3/5 - Ten Régions are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones, with low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Bourg-Fr-C=1.01;
Bretagne=1.08;
Centre-Val-de-L=1.04;
Corse=1.0;
Grand-Est=1.04;
Hauts-de-Fr=1.07;
Ile-de-Fr=1.07;
Nouv-Aquit=1.10;
Occit=1.0;
Pays-de-L=1.03;
Read 7 tweets
16 Oct
1/14 - “The UK’s weekly death rate stands at 12 per million, three times the level of other major European nations, while hospitalisations have risen to eight #COVID19-related admissions a week per 100,000 people, six times the rate on the continent.”
ft.com/content/345825…
2/14 - “Scientists have urged the UK government to impose fresh coronavirus restrictions in England over winter, as high hospital admission and fatality rates outstrip the rest of western Europe.”
3/14 - “The decision to end compulsory mask-wearing and to pause plans for vaccine passports in England has made the British government an outlier for its management of the pandemic and could account for the worsening trends, according to scientific experts.”
Read 14 tweets
16 Oct
1/9 - Oct 16 to Oct 22 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing: ALB; CH; NO.
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.08; PT=1.06, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.26; DK=1.18; NL=1.21, IRL=1.14 are rising again. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe are experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.12, 32.4% 1 dose); Latvia=1.21(51.1%); Bulgaria=1.17 (37.4%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.7%); Russia=1.09 (34.3%);
Slovakia=1.14 (45.5%) ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
16 Oct
1/5 - On Oct 16, France is leaving its safety threshold of new #COVID19 cases (5,016), with 19 deaths/days. foreseen by Oct 22, R-eff=1.08, red; 75.7% 1 dose.

Thread: regional forecast for Oct 16 to Oct 19.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/5 - Six Régions are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:
Bretagne=1.05;
Corse=1.03;
Hauts-de-France=1.06;
Ile-de-France=1.06;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.07;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.05;
3/5 - Five Régions are slowly landing [landing] towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

[Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes=0.90;
Guadeloupe=0.81]
Grand-Est=0.96;
Normandie=0.97;
Occitanie=0.94;
Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur=0.93.
Read 7 tweets

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