Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Oct 16 to Oct 22 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing: ALB; CH; NO.
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.08; PT=1.06, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.26; DK=1.18; NL=1.21, IRL=1.14 are rising again.

3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe are experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.12, 32.4% 1 dose); Latvia=1.21(51.1%); Bulgaria=1.17 (37.4%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.7%); Russia=1.09 (34.3%);
Slovakia=1.14 (45.5%)

4/9 - Africa -
Libya (R-eff=0.93) is slowly landing (red), high mortality (21.0% received 1 dose).
Increase in #COVID19 cases in Gabon=1.09 (5.6% received 1 dose); and Botswana=1.08 (22.9%).
Underreporting in many countries.

5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.07, 37.8% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Israel (72.8%) is landing towards its safety zone, with medium mortality.
Iran=0.97 [Irak=0.96] are plateauing, with remaining high [low] mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.13) and Mongolia=1.11 are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low [and very high] mortality, while Thailand=0.96; Philippines; and Malaysia are landing, with medium to high mortality, for 7 more days.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
Singapore (R-eff=1.04, 81.5% received 1 dose) is plateauing at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with med mort, for 7 more d.

Australia=1.02, plateau (71.4%), low mort.

China; Taiwan;NZ=1.26,62-76 cases/d; SK; Japan, Vietnam: safe zone.

8/9 - North America -
Canada is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, med mort, 78.8% 1 dose: Red in 6 prov/terr, green in Ontario, Orange in Alberta; BC.
The USA are slowly landing towards their safe zone, (66.2%), green in Florida, orange 15, red 34 states, high mort.

9/9 - Latin America
Chile=1.12; Uruguay=1.12; Dominic Repub=1.07 are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones.
El Salvador=0.97/Belize=1.01: plateau, medium/alarming mortality;
Cuba; Costa-Rica; Mexico: landing, high mort.
Brazil, Argentina; Colombia; Peru: safe.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0