1/14 - “The UK’s weekly death rate stands at 12 per million, three times the level of other major European nations, while hospitalisations have risen to eight #COVID19-related admissions a week per 100,000 people, six times the rate on the continent.”
ft.com/content/345825…
2/14 - “Scientists have urged the UK government to impose fresh coronavirus restrictions in England over winter, as high hospital admission and fatality rates outstrip the rest of western Europe.”
3/14 - “The decision to end compulsory mask-wearing and to pause plans for vaccine passports in England has made the British government an outlier for its management of the pandemic and could account for the worsening trends, according to scientific experts.”
4/14 - “By contrast, Western European countries such as France, Italy and, in particular, Spain have brought down infection rates to their lowest level since the summer of 2020.”
5/14 - “@martinmckee, prof of public health at the LSHTM, said the better picture on the continent showed England “should immediately be activating” its winter “Plan B” of work from home orders, vaccine mandates and legally-enforced mask-wearing indoors.”
6/14 - “These small measures like mask-wearing, distancing, ventilation and an emphasis on homeworking are greater than the sum of their parts,” McKee said. “It really doesn’t take an awful lot to bring this down, as France, Italy and others have shown.”
7/14 - “In Spain, which as recently as July endured the highest infection rate in mainland Europe, case rates have come down 17-fold in the past three months to among the lowest in the continent, even as infections in the UK stay stubbornly high.”
8/14 - “Professor Ravi Gupta, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), called on the government to “learn lessons” from European countries that were “more cautious in their opening up”.
9/14 -“We’re just far too reliant on our relatively modest vaccination coverage as our only line of defence,” said Gupta, who added that faster teen vaccination rollouts and more restrictions in classrooms had contributed to other countries’ success in containing an autumn wave.”
10/14 - “In Spain and Italy, for instance, obligatory wearing of masks has remained in schools and both countries have been more cautious in reopening nightclubs than England.”
11/14 - “About 15 per cent of UK adults now say they never wear a mask in public spaces, according to a YouGov poll from mid-October. The figure compares with below 2 per cent in Spain and Italy, and about 4 per cent in France.”
12/14 - “The UK’s greater reliance on the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine could also be a factor in higher infection rates, adding urgency to the need for booster shots, according to Prof Neil Ferguson, a leading epidemiologist at Imperial College London.”
13/14 - “The UK has used a lot more AstraZeneca, which particularly against [the] Delta [variant] is much less effective at blocking infect and reducing transmiss than the mRNA vacc. On that functional level of immunity we’re a considerable way behind many western Eur countries.”
14/14 - “François Balloux, director of the University College London Genetics Institute, said a high infection rate over autumn could stand the UK in better stead for winter when hospitals are under even greater strain.”

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More from @FLAHAULT

17 Oct
1/6 - La situation épidémioliogique #COVID19 se tend à nouveau dans toute l'Europe.
En France, le rebond survient alors que la décrue (4234 cas le 6 octobre) n'avait pas atteint le niveau du 25 juin (1900 cas).
2/6 - Ainsi, si le rebond devait se confirmer les semaines à venir, l'accalmie (moins de 5000 cas /j) entre la 4ème et la 5ème vague pourrait n'avoir duré que 23 jours (du 26 septembre au 18 octobre), alors qu'elle avait duré 33 jours du 8 juin au 10 juillet dernier.
3/6 - Le Danemark connaît un rebond très analogue, après avoir connu une accalmie (moins de 433 cas/j) de 19 jours (du 12 septembre au 30 septembre). Or le Danemark a levé le Coronapass (équivalent du passe sanitaire) et les obligations de port du masque dès le 10 septembre.
Read 6 tweets
17 Oct
1/9 - Oct 17 to Oct 23 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Europe -
#COVID19 epidemiological tension is growing in NW:
- Green only in Spain and Italy;
- Red (R-eff>0.9) everywhere else:
FL=1.10; FR=1.07; DE=1.06; BE=1.05; PT=1.01; SE=0.98; NO=0.95; CH=0.93 moving away from their safe zones;
DK=1.16; NL=1.23, IRL=1.15 rising.
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe are experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality:
Romania (R-eff=1.12, 32.4% 1 dose); Latvia=1.20 (52.4); BG=1.18 (37.5); CZ=1.26 (57.6);SLK=1.14 (45.5);RU=1.09 (34.4);UKR=1.17 (17.9);PL=1.26 (52.7).
Read 11 tweets
17 Oct
1/5 - By Oct 23, France is foreseen to reach 5,433 new #COVID19 cases, with 20 deaths/days, if the trend remains at same pace (R-eff=1.07); 75.8% 1 dose.

Thread: regional forecast for Oct 17 to Oct 20.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Three Régions only remain in their #COVID19 safety zones, with very low [medium] levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Normandie;
Réunion;
[Mayotte].
3/5 - Ten Régions are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones, with low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Bourg-Fr-C=1.01;
Bretagne=1.08;
Centre-Val-de-L=1.04;
Corse=1.0;
Grand-Est=1.04;
Hauts-de-Fr=1.07;
Ile-de-Fr=1.07;
Nouv-Aquit=1.10;
Occit=1.0;
Pays-de-L=1.03;
Read 7 tweets
16 Oct
1/9 - Oct 16 to Oct 22 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing: ALB; CH; NO.
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.08; PT=1.06, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.26; DK=1.18; NL=1.21, IRL=1.14 are rising again.
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe are experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.12, 32.4% 1 dose); Latvia=1.21(51.1%); Bulgaria=1.17 (37.4%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.7%); Russia=1.09 (34.3%);
Slovakia=1.14 (45.5%)
Read 11 tweets
16 Oct
1/5 - On Oct 16, France is leaving its safety threshold of new #COVID19 cases (5,016), with 19 deaths/days. foreseen by Oct 22, R-eff=1.08, red; 75.7% 1 dose.

Thread: regional forecast for Oct 16 to Oct 19.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Six Régions are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:
Bretagne=1.05;
Corse=1.03;
Hauts-de-France=1.06;
Ile-de-France=1.06;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.07;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.05;
3/5 - Five Régions are slowly landing [landing] towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

[Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes=0.90;
Guadeloupe=0.81]
Grand-Est=0.96;
Normandie=0.97;
Occitanie=0.94;
Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur=0.93.
Read 7 tweets
15 Oct
1/4 - France, Suisse, Italie, Espagne et Portugal: sont-ils les derniers bastions de calme sur le front #COVID19?
L'étau pandémique se resserre.
La très forte activité épidémique à l'est et au centre de l'Europe semble désormais percoler vers l'ouest (DE,AU,DK, NL, BE, UK, IRL).
2/4 - Les semaines à venir pourraient sceller l'évolution de la pandémie en Europe cet hiver:
Les nations très vaccinées qui ont conservé passe sanitaire et port du masque résisteront-elles mieux et plus longtemps que celles qui ne misent que sur leur forte couverture vaccinale?
3/4 - On constate que là où la couverture vaccinale est inférieure à 50%, les pays (Russie, Roumanie) rencontrent de grandes difficultés à juguler la vague de mortalité et l'engorgement de leurs hôpitaux. Ceux qui dépassent 70%, sans mesures associées (UK, IRL), souffrent aussi.
Read 4 tweets

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