1/It's time to take stock of where we are w/#COVID19 in Maine from an epidemiological perspective.
Let's start with the big picture. The PCR positivity rate is now 5.3%. One incubation period ago, it was at 4.5%.
2/A portion of that increase is attributable to less PCR testing.
Right now, the current daily PCR testing volume stands at 471/100K people. That's 13% lower than one incubation period ago, leading to a higher positivity rate.
3/Hospitalizations are thankfully lower, but still high. Right now, 166 people are in the hospital in #Maine w/#COVID19. 60 of them are in the ICU and 31 are on ventilators.
Two weeks ago, there were 211 people hospitalized, with 67 in the ICU, though 27 on a ventilator.
4/Vaccinations are continuing, with Maine administering 3849 doses/day right now. That's a 20% increase over the past 2 weeks.
About 56% of the vaccines being administered are 3rd doses.
5/What does all this mean?
Simply stated, we're still in this. It's too early to tell to what degree (if any) things are easing in #Maine.
Some metrics have improved, to be sure, but will we remain at a high plateau like the UK?
That is, of course, up to us.
6/Sadly, @MEPublicHealth reported five additional deaths today, including one in an individual <20 years of age.
We offer the friends, families, and communities of those who have passed our deepest condolences.
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1/It's important to consider the full picture when interpreting data on things like the % of people fully vaccinated who are hospitalized with #COVID19, or the fact that 74% of the cases in the P-town outbreak were fully vaccinated.
2/I have seen folks express concern upon learning, for example, that 45% of people hospitalized w/COVID19 are vaccinated.
"But I thought the vaccine keeps you out of the hospital? Is this evidence that vaccines aren't working?" No, it is not.
I'll walk through why here.
3/First, some basic assumptions. There are two Worlds, each with 1M people. And we'll consider the same infectious disease affecting each World, with the parameters below.
There is also a vaccine, with the effectiveness parameters noted below. These could all be changed.
2/"After the governor’s executive order, COVID-19 incidence decreased (mean decrease of 0.08 cases per 100,000 per day; net decrease of 6%) among counties with a mask mandate but continued to increase (mean increase of 0.11 cases per 100,000 per day; net increase of 100%)..."
3/"...among counties without a mask mandate (nonmandated counties)."