Weekly French vaccination thread.
A slower week for needles in arms - 242,303 1st jabs a day, substantially down on last week. France is, however, still on course to hit 50m 1st shots by the month's end. The Fr total of 1st jabs is now just over 46m –only 1.1m behind the UK.
1/12
Protests against the health pass will continue across France today for a 5th Saturday. The government expects the number of marchers to grow slightly from last week’s 237,000. Those (like me) who predicted that the protests would shrivel in August have been proved wrong.
2/12
It’s difficult to say what will happen to such a bizarre alliance of the thoughtful, the dotty, the sincere and the cynical - far-left, far-right, anarchists, fundamentalist Cathos, anti-semites, conspiracy nuts and apolitical opponents to limits on personal freedoms. 3/12
I note, however, that the anti-pass movement appears to be strongest in an arc around the Med coast and into Aquitaine – coinciding with some of the lowest rates of vaccination in France. It also takes in some of the areas with the highest levels of 4th Covid wave infection.
4/12
It is also worth repeating that the 4th wave pandemic is slowing earlier than expected in most of Metropolitam France (68.4% 1st vaxxed; 57.4% fully vaxxed) but raging in the Dom-Toms, especially Guadelpoupe ( 25% 1st vaxxed and 19% fully vaxxed). 5/12
As President Macron said last week, low-vax rates in overseas France (caused by deep cultural resistance) have become a grim proof that VACCINATION WORKS. One in 5 people in Guadeloupe is now infected. The incidence rate is zooming. In France as a whole it’s flattening. 6/12
But look also at the worst- afflicted départements in European France. Holiday crowds may partly be responsible for high infection rates in the South and SW but Bouches-du Rhone, Var, Hérault etc are also relatively low-vax places and hot-spots of anti-vax/anti-pass feeling. 7/12
Highest incidence rates (cases per 100,000 people/7 days): Guadeloupe 2,130.4, Martinique 1,164, Bouches-du-Rhône 689.9, Corse-du-Sud 620.6, Hérault 602.1, Alpes-Maritimes 596.7, Haute-Corse 571.2, Var 546.1 Vaucluse 472.7. Pyrénées-Orientales 451.1, Gard 450.8, Aude 427.4. 8/12
This week’s vax figures
The daily av.of 1st jabs has slipped to 242,303, as Doctolib predicted that it would. The pace is expected to pick up next week. Fr has 1st-jabbed 46,109,683 people – 10m up in a month since Macron announced the pass. Full vaxxes have almost hit 39m.
9/12
To put the number in context (with graph by @nicolasberrod ).
Fr. has 1st vaxxed 68.4 of its population and fully vaxxed 57.4%. Leaving aside 12-17 yr olds (now 51% vaxxed) the adult population is 82% 1st vaxxed and 70.6% fully vaxxed.
10/12
The boom in 1st jabs since Macron announced the pass has been especially strong in 18-24 year olds (now 76.6% 1st vaxxed compared to 49% on 12 July) and 25-29 yr olds (74.3% compared to 48.9%). But coverage of over 80s- 83.4% 1st vaxxed - remains poor. 11/12
At the present rate France (240,000 1st jabs a a day) should overtake the UK (36,000 a day) in total 1st shots by the end of next week. I originally projected 15/16 Aug. I will be out by 3 -4 days.
Going on a holiday trip myself from Sun. No threads for a while. Keep safe.
12/12

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11 Aug
Weekly French Covid thread

The flattening of the Delta wave of Covid in France (earlier than expected) is confirmed this week – in all but the overseas départements, especially Guadeloupe and Martinique in the Caribbean, where it’s raging out of control. 1/8
Guadeloupe and Martinique – largely because of deep, cultural resistance – are much, much less vaccinated than Metropolitan France (21% first-jabbed, compared to 81%). The one (low vax) helps to explains the other (high cases) – except in the closed minds of anti-vaxxers.
2/8
Here are 2 maps of European France published in recent days which make (it seems to me) the same point. The one, from Covidtracker, shows, in dark, the départements with highest C19 incidence rate. The other, a study for the state insurance system, shows high/low vax rates. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
7 Aug
Weekly French vaccination thread.

A reasonably good week for the Fr. vaccination programme – an average of 330,022 first jabs a day, down on last week but excellent for August and still nearly double the rate before Macron announced the “health pass” on 12 July. 1/8
Protests against the health pass will continue across France today. It will be a test of the staying power for the disparate protesters. Will they be able to maintain or increase last week’s 200,000 (all Fr) turnout? Or will a) the holiday and b) the rain dampen their ardour? 2/8
The Conseil Constitutionnel has approved, with small tweaks, the health pass and legal compulsion on health workers to be vaxxed by 15 Sept. From Mon access to bars/restos/long-haul transport etc is limited to those with a recent neg test/recovery from C19/or full-vaccination
3/8
Read 8 tweets
4 Aug
Weekly French Covid thread

The upward curve of new cases – almost all Delta variant now - has flattened for the 1st time since late June. Hospital admissions, acute cases and deaths are surging but that reflects the boom in infections in previous weeks.
1/12
Overall, it’s good news. Imagine you’re on a beach on a calm day. Breakers are coming ashore because of a gale yesterday. If new cases have truly peaked (still unclear), the 4th wave in Fr. may be less dramatic than feared. This seems to match the pattern in UK, NL, P, Sp.
2/12
New cases in the last 7 days averaged 21,788, after 19,436 last week. Cases had previously been doubling weekly. The incidence rate (IR) nationwide is stable at 225 (cases per 100,000 people in 7 days). The IR in 20-somethings – previously calamitous – has fallen sharply. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
31 Jul
Weekly French vaccination thread.

A good week for the Fr. vax programme – an av. of 381,131 first jabs a day, back to the heady levels of May. In the last 4 days, the figure has been 400,000+. 1st shots have more than doubled since Macron wielded his big stick on 12 July.
1/12 Image
Protests by a minority also continue. Over 150,000 people are predicted to take part in 100 marches or demos against the health pass today. Will the numbers exceed last week’s 160,000 across Fr.? Or will protests be blunted by the start of Fr’s peak holiday month tomorrow? 2/12
The 4th (Delta) wave of the Covid pandemic is gaining ground (over 21,000 cases a day) but the increase is slightly less rapid than last week. Deaths/acute cases are starting to rise from a low base. Over 1,000 people are in acute care (up from the high 800’s 10 days ago). 3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
21 Jul
Weekly French Covid thread
The 4th wave of Covid, the Delta wave, is here - ahead of schedule. Cases have more than doubled - up 129% - in 7 days. Four fifths of Fr cases are now Delta. The government is alarmed. New restrictive rules re likely in the worst-hit areas. 1/12
The health defence council is meeting under President Macron’s chairmanship this morning. PM Jean Castex will make a statement later. The government feels that it can no longer wait for the effect of accelerated vaccinations/the widened health pass from 1 August. 2/12
Likely measures are a return to outdoor masks and 11pm resto/bar closures in worst-afflicted départements (clustered around the coast). This has already happened in Pyrénées Orientales (Perpignan), where the incidence rate has leaped to 372.7 (4X the national rate of 83.9) 3/12
Read 13 tweets
17 Jul
Weekly vax thread.
Usually this Saturday thread is about the French vax programme. I’ll come to that; lots of news on that.
But I’ll start with the biggest news of the day – the bizarre UK govt U-turn forcing quarantine on travellers returning to England from France. 1/12
This weird decision was supposedly taken because the Beta (South African) virus is exploding in France. It’s not. It’s rising slightly in European France and heavily present in the Indian Ocean island of Réunion, which is part of France and counts in the French figures. 2/12
In sum: the Johnson govt is abandoning social restrictions in England on Monday although Covid cases in UK are booming BUT imposing restrictions on travellers from Fr because of a problem which the French govt doesn’t think is a problem. Diverting attention? Looking tough? 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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