Hey, Queensland-can I have a word?
We've managed to "dodge a bullet" so often when clusters emerge we might be feeling a little bulletproof at this point.
Hospitals, labs, the government-all are preparing for what comes next, but *we* each need to do our part in that preparation
We've had good luck (and the south has had bad luck), we don't have the high rise higher density living, we are outdoors more, we do have a sprawling State (a problem for vaccination). But, we've also worked hard, kept borders tightly controlled, tested, traced, isolated well.
We've also had a great response from our community when specific areas are asked to step forward for testing. Sampling numbers spike. We lockdown quickly, stopping the spread. We open up again.
This pattern has (so far) kept everyone onside. There's been no single thing, though - it's a complex web of many things, with communication at its heart.
But at some point, our luck might run out. We'll possibly see multiple clusters (like Melb did?) which..
..have bubbled along for some time before being found. Numbers could climb & - the pattern everywhere - contact tracing will be overwhelmed. A lockdown might be called. Cases will eventually outpace it because those who must still work will get infected and start new fires.
Households will provide the fuel.
Hospitalisations will rise (just not to the extent we've seen pre-vaccination), then deaths.
*ALL* of that can be better controlled with higher vaccination levels.
But every pocket of unvaccinated people will catch fire and burn brightest.
Those in regional areas who have not seen cases will see them & their effects on loved ones.
Their social media will fill with ~10% of their infected unvaccinated friends becoming very sick, requiring hospitalisation. Some will die there.
It'll all become real very quickly. The media will be singing their song of anxiety loudly.
The unvaccinated will wish they'd started vaccinating 5 weeks ago.
But it will be too late because the best immune response requires both doses of vaccine plus another couple of weeks.
Queensland.
Please make an effort to get vaccinated NOW. Ask your boss for time off to get the shot & walk into a clinic NOW.
Put in the extra effort to seek out a vaccine site. covid19nearme.com.au/state/qld/vacc…
Book with a friend or the whole workplace. qld.gov.au/health/conditi…
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Agree with CHO on how we've managed to "dodge a bullet" so often when clustered emerge. I'd add that having a clearly spoken, straightforward, collaborative CHO, dep. CHO(s), Premier, dep Premier - it makes a big difference.
We've also had good luck (and the south has had its share of bad luck), we don't have the high rise higher density living, we are outdoors more, we do have a sprawling State (problem for vaccination),
If you're baking a cake, maybe one you haven't tried before, do you set the oven at a temperature, cook it for exactly xyz minutes, then turn the oven off, pull the cake out and eat it? Or do you leave the oven on while you check the cake is baked, and if it isn't leave it in?
In PCR'land we don't take our tubes out & test them, but we "set and forget" to a MAX baking time (=total number of cycles; at 40-50). We come back at the end & see the results. Virus positive samples show up *before* the run is completely finished (15-30 cycles, with some later)
In the real-world RT-PCR result below you can see a bunch of positive curves for flu (the negatives are the flat lines underneath the red threshold).
Doesn't matter what the final cycle number is (how long the oven was on), just that it allows all the ingredients to be cooked.
A short thread on blocking to maintain your own mental health from others' aggression, bullying, anger, stupidity, trolling, disingenuity and abuse (of course, you can always log off social media to get a break from its negativity)
You don't have to follow me.
You don't have to read my ramblings.
You don't have to tell me what you think.
If you don't like what I'm writing, stop reading or block me.
I promise I won't mind. I probably won't even notice.
I don't owe you my time. I'm not your punching bag or assistant. I don't have to answer or tolerate your rude, trolling, maliciously deceptive questions or debate you because you want it. I'm here at my own cost for my own reasons.
A reminder of how vaccine development has been speeding up - but scicne and medicine did especially amazingly for this pandemic. A new benchmark?
A nice reminder that while most of COVID-19 is mild and moderate, a sizable portion is not at all - from hospitals through to death.
Polio was a rare outcome from poliovirus infection - but it wasn't something anyone wanted.
Vaccines work in these severe outcomes spaces.
In Australia we are talking about lifting some restrictions once 70% of the eligible population is fully vaccinated ("double-dosed"); more will lift at 80%.
It's important to be fully aware that "70% of" anything often doesn't look like this - one homogenous group all at the same level.
Here the shape might be Australia, or all people, or one jurisdiction (e.g. a State, territory, building) or an age band (e.g. 16-25 year olds).
Overall, these two groups could, as an average of both ("=all of Australia"?), be considered vaccinated to a level of 70%.
And yet one group hasn't even cracked 70% fully vaccinated.