Every one one of these highly-publicized BTC ripper events has been a short-term buy the rumor / sell the fact (e.g., launch of BTC futures 2017, Coinbase IPO, Elon on SNL 2021, BTC day in El Salvador…)

I don’t see why this one should be different.

Three charts + more...

There is a massive wall of leveraged spec money front-running the ETF launch and the product is likely to meet limp demand. This ETF is a distraction for anyone that really cares about bitcoin and it’s a trap for any short-term trader expecting huge inflows.

The bitcoin futures ETF is a solution looking for a problem. Most traders and investors finally understand: futures ETFs are bad. The flow will not be big enough to take out the late spec longs and I assume we see a zippy buy rumor / sell fact style correction back to 50k.

51k before 67k kinda thing.

I'm writing way more about this and also about other (better) US-listed bitcoin proxies in tomorrow's AM/FX. DM me if you wanna read it.

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More from @donnelly_brent

14 Oct

AUDJPY and BTC still both risky assets and somewhat joined at the hip with BTC leading more often and AUDJPY lagging.

Blue line is bitcoin, black is AUDJPY. Hourly since late August...

Hourly back to late 2020
Why? Both pairs are risky assets that loosely (but not perfectly) reflect the current level of money sloshing around in the system. When money gets sucked out, AUDJPY and BTC go down. When money comes back in, they go up. There are always leads and lags.
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep

Today's AM/FX non sequitur triggered some excitement and many smart people offered good explanations. Here is the best one:

Most of the U.S. airports (roughly 12,900 of the 13,513 that you mention) are class E or uncontrolled airspace airports usable by small craft ...

... (think Cessna 172). Of the ones usable by jet traffic, there are:

40 Class B airports (e.g. JFK, BOS, SFC)
116 Class C airports (Albany)
474 Class D airports (Westchester County)

My hunch (from having flown over various parts of the world piloting a large size PJ) ...

is that the likes of China and Russia have almost no uncontrolled airspace airports for reasons related the military deployment, history (very skinny pickings in private flight schools outside of major cities), weather, etc....
Read 4 tweets
24 Jul
1 of 4

Could be a good week for AUDJPY. Ozzie CPI odds favor a beat based on recent correlated data from TDMI + NZ + USA.

Another reason AU CPI could beat is the tendency for economists to anchor on prior (unrealistically low) data. Meanwhile, stonks and crypto show the way...

Note AUDJPY struggled after BTC peaked the night of
@elonmusk on SNL (see chart, BTC orange, AUDJPY blue) then dumped a few weeks after BTC dumped.

Now crypto looks bottomy. Commodities V-shaped and blowoff bottom in many altcoins. See chart of MATIC, for example.

Lockdown and Delta are obvious concerns (priced in?) but much as market was long AUD at .77 on the global reflation story, it feels like the market now getting short AUD on a 73 handle (+ the market is mostly out of large CAD longs, which helps .. see pic of CFTC CAD longs)
Read 5 tweets
19 Jul
New, interesting and relevant: Fed / Yale paper on stablecoins and wildcat banking.

"Taming wildcat stablecoins"

Love this in the opening paragraph... Passive/aggressive choice of terminology... "The first category of cryptocurrencies includes those not backed by anything, like Bitcoin. We call these “fiat cryptocurrencies.” Their defining feature is that they have no intrinsic value."
"Finally, we note the urgency of this project. Some policymakers may view stablecoins as an up-and-coming financial innovation that does not currently pose any systemic risk and therefore believe that the best strategy is to wait to see how things play out....
Read 6 tweets
4 Jun
The demise of the dollar has been a popular media story throughout my entire life. Consume such stories with the understanding they have been around for 50 years. A few examples...
Same thing with US debt and deficits. Fear sells.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun
Survey result 1. Economist estimates are much more clustered toward the mean than my survey respondents’ guesses because anonymous survey participants are not worried about looking stupid, unlike economists making public forecasts.

This is a known bias in economic forecasts.
Survey result 2. Question asked for your 80 percent confidence range for NFP this Friday.

Median range bottom 300
Median range top 900

A true surprise needs to be outside that range IMO
Survey result 3. #BTC
Read 5 tweets

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