Print more money
Some goes to investors, who fund automation
Some goes to workers, who resign
Labor is scarce, tech is abundant
Employers digitize more, automate more
Less need for old forms of labor
Demand for redistribution
Print more money
This feedback loop causes us to eventually exit the 20th century economy towards robotics, but in an extremely messy way.
If we can make it to the other side, because automation deflates prices, many more will be able to live off dividends from investing.
Add to this the BTC/USD dynamic, and we are in for an even more intense combo of tech-driven deflation and state-driven inflation than the 2010s. Btw, buy Bitcoin.
India's advantage vs China on web3 may be that it won't ban it. Its advantage vs the US may be that it doesn't have legacy web2 incumbents. And its advantage vs both may be that it has many who are both willing *and* able to emigrate anywhere.
That is, Indians don't have an investment in the web2 past, don't have a ban on the web3 future, aren't restricted from emigrating like the Chinese, and have more of a willingness to emigrate than the Americans.
Why is the ability to emigrate so important? Crypto challenges many premises. It's going to lead not just to new currencies, but to new cities and even new countries. You can't do all of this in India itself. But you can probably do it somewhere abroad.
Tensegrity is an excellent visual metaphor. Each point on the globe has both tension and attraction to other points. When that balance of forces changes, the order falls apart.
This is how I thought about the collapse of SF. Rubber band tension between two forces, till one of them suddenly went to zero. Tensegrity is an excellent visual generalization of this concept, to multiple forces and multiple points simultaneously.
This was my mental model for what would happen after SF falls, as well, even before the pandemic. Startup cities would rise — like Miami, but also like Prospera and Culdesac.
I should probably write an essay on this but it’s very difficult to fix the US system from within.
The recent emergency legalization of telemedicine may be the key — build a parallel system abroad, with medical tourism referrals to places like Bumrungrad. bumrungrad.com/en/about-us/bu…
Why have prices gone up so much?
- MDs don’t set or know prices
- CPOM deters hospital startups
- Few pay listed cash price
- Insurance means uncertain payment for vendors and patients alike
- AI automated diagnosis is regulated
- Telemedicine was until recently also inhibited
Baumol's cost disease doesn't happen by accident. Labor productivity can't rise if the state bans innovation, as it does in healthcare, education, and housing.
Try using AI to automate, say, medical imaging — and see how much the state interferes. statnews.com/2020/02/28/ai-…
The cost of medical diagnosis is not simply the cost in cost, but also the cost in time and convenience. In many studies, AI outperforms all but the very best doctors — and does so inexpensively and quickly.
Web3 is how tech leaves Silicon Valley and puts India — and everyone else — on a truly level playing field. It'll be as central to Indian tech as web2 was to US tech. We can leapfrog legacy players with web3 versions of social, messaging, & fintech apps. economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technolog…
If web3 works, Silicon Valley becomes to technology what Detroit now is to cars. A deprecated metonym, disrupted just like Madison Avenue and Wall Street.
- Finance is not Wall Street
- Advertising is not Madison Avenue
- Film is not Hollywood
- Education is not the Ivy League
- Space isn't NASA
- Cars are not Detroit
- And technology is not Silicon Valley
Many iterations of this strategy. As British colonialism plus Christianization of the heathens. As evangelical democracy. As neoconservatism. And, most recently, as wokeness.
All of them share this general pattern. Invade, then mentally subjugate the locals for their own good.
It’s not so much that this was a conscious thing. But the priestly remonstrations seemed to mainly target the colonized, not the invaders.
Until recently. Wokeness may be the end of the line for this model, as Western priests are now really going after their own warriors.