Tensegrity is an excellent visual metaphor. Each point on the globe has both tension and attraction to other points. When that balance of forces changes, the order falls apart.
This is how I thought about the collapse of SF. Rubber band tension between two forces, till one of them suddenly went to zero. Tensegrity is an excellent visual generalization of this concept, to multiple forces and multiple points simultaneously.
This was my mental model for what would happen after SF falls, as well, even before the pandemic. Startup cities would rise — like Miami, but also like Prospera and Culdesac.
Actually doing out explicit force diagrams is a useful way to think about the state of the world, and disaggregate mental models into a literal sum of forces.

You can't quite apply Newton's laws, but you can at least isolate points of disagreement.
In the case of SF, repulsive forces were clearly building (crime, filth, prices, etc), but financial appreciation, collective inertia, and lack of Miami/etc held it in place — till COVID just 6 months later.

I think @paulg's thoughts & mine both held up.

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More from @balajis

20 Oct
Just saw The Battle at Lake Changjin. Through-the-looking-glass experience, where the good guys are the plucky underdog Chinese and the bad guys are the powerful Americans.

It’s the #1 movie in the world, and seemingly meant to prepare for conflict.
They want to fight because they think they’ll win.

“Combat was formerly seen as a threat to the Party’s hold on power. China’s military was not in a position to win…Now it is perceived as a way to strengthen the CCP’s position.” thediplomat.com/2021/10/the-ba…
China has truly shifted from peaceful internationalist capitalism under Deng/Jiang/Hu to militarist nationalist socialism under Xi.

Their head is just in a completely different place from the US. Totally asymmetric matchup in terms of civilizational will.
Read 14 tweets
20 Oct
A theory, not strongly held.

India's advantage vs China on web3 may be that it won't ban it. Its advantage vs the US may be that it doesn't have legacy web2 incumbents. And its advantage vs both may be that it has many who are both willing *and* able to emigrate anywhere.
That is, Indians don't have an investment in the web2 past, don't have a ban on the web3 future, aren't restricted from emigrating like the Chinese, and have more of a willingness to emigrate than the Americans.

Could be a recipe to do well.
Why is the ability to emigrate so important? Crypto challenges many premises. It's going to lead not just to new currencies, but to new cities and even new countries. You can't do all of this in India itself. But you can probably do it somewhere abroad.
Read 11 tweets
19 Oct
Long answer, many factors.

It’s not a simple fee-for-service cash transaction between the buyer and seller, where the doctor/seller sets (and knows) the price.

Instead it’s third party payment, fourth party pricing, fifth party regulation.

AMA + CPT + RVU + CPOM + FDA = DMV
I should probably write an essay on this but it’s very difficult to fix the US system from within.

The recent emergency legalization of telemedicine may be the key — build a parallel system abroad, with medical tourism referrals to places like Bumrungrad. bumrungrad.com/en/about-us/bu…
Why have prices gone up so much?

- MDs don’t set or know prices
- CPOM deters hospital startups
- Few pay listed cash price
- Insurance means uncertain payment for vendors and patients alike
- AI automated diagnosis is regulated
- Telemedicine was until recently also inhibited
Read 7 tweets
19 Oct
Yes. Though both are accelerating.

Not inflating $1T this decade, more like $10T.
Not automating servers this decade, more like everything.

Inflation partially drives automation, by funding disruption. And automation partially drives inflation, via demand for redistribution.
The feedback loop goes like this:

Print more money
Some goes to investors, who fund automation
Some goes to workers, who resign
Labor is scarce, tech is abundant
Employers digitize more, automate more
Less need for old forms of labor
Demand for redistribution
Print more money
This feedback loop causes us to eventually exit the 20th century economy towards robotics, but in an extremely messy way.

If we can make it to the other side, because automation deflates prices, many more will be able to live off dividends from investing.
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
Whatever the state props up rises in price. Whatever technology disrupts falls in price.
Baumol's cost disease doesn't happen by accident. Labor productivity can't rise if the state bans innovation, as it does in healthcare, education, and housing.

Try using AI to automate, say, medical imaging — and see how much the state interferes. statnews.com/2020/02/28/ai-…
The cost of medical diagnosis is not simply the cost in cost, but also the cost in time and convenience. In many studies, AI outperforms all but the very best doctors — and does so inexpensively and quickly.

Why isn't it on every phone, then? FDA. auntminnie.com/index.aspx?sec…
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
Web3 is how tech leaves Silicon Valley and puts India — and everyone else — on a truly level playing field. It'll be as central to Indian tech as web2 was to US tech. We can leapfrog legacy players with web3 versions of social, messaging, & fintech apps.
economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technolog…
If web3 works, Silicon Valley becomes to technology what Detroit now is to cars. A deprecated metonym, disrupted just like Madison Avenue and Wall Street.
Deprecate metonyms via decentralizing technology.

- Finance is not Wall Street
- Advertising is not Madison Avenue
- Film is not Hollywood
- Education is not the Ivy League
- Space isn't NASA
- Cars are not Detroit
- And technology is not Silicon Valley

As obsolete as Broadway.
Read 4 tweets

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