A theory, not strongly held.
India's advantage vs China on web3 may be that it won't ban it. Its advantage vs the US may be that it doesn't have legacy web2 incumbents. And its advantage vs both may be that it has many who are both willing *and* able to emigrate anywhere.
India's advantage vs China on web3 may be that it won't ban it. Its advantage vs the US may be that it doesn't have legacy web2 incumbents. And its advantage vs both may be that it has many who are both willing *and* able to emigrate anywhere.
https://twitter.com/mindaoyang/status/1450370794513592324
That is, Indians don't have an investment in the web2 past, don't have a ban on the web3 future, aren't restricted from emigrating like the Chinese, and have more of a willingness to emigrate than the Americans.
Could be a recipe to do well.
Could be a recipe to do well.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1446422668153012225
Why is the ability to emigrate so important? Crypto challenges many premises. It's going to lead not just to new currencies, but to new cities and even new countries. You can't do all of this in India itself. But you can probably do it somewhere abroad.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1446418096890138638
India's advantage in the era to come may be its Goldilocks status.
A high enough state capacity to maintain rule of law & not descend into anarchy, but not so high a state capacity that it threatens the rest of the world & catalyzes reverse bandwagoning.
A high enough state capacity to maintain rule of law & not descend into anarchy, but not so high a state capacity that it threatens the rest of the world & catalyzes reverse bandwagoning.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1450271675941941249
One way of seeing this is to contrast the recent American & Chinese military recruitment videos with the Indian one. Yes, it's propaganda, but it shows what leadership is thinking about.
US:
China:
India:
US:
China:
India:
The US ad is woke narcissism, minimal realism. Conversely, the Chinese ad is nationalist socialism, scary collectivism. And both the US & Chinese ads are humorless.
The Indian one has...a sense of humor?!? More Top Gun than self-absorption or bellicosity.
The Indian one has...a sense of humor?!? More Top Gun than self-absorption or bellicosity.
This is just one example, but on other dimensions as well India is settling into an intermediate between the US & China. It's neither the coming American anarchy nor the Sinic surveillance state. An imperfect but functional base for global operations, especially via the diaspora.
Now, you might say that America isn't in anarchy — yet. But just as the crazy bailouts of 2008-2009 became the boring policy of 2021, the violent chaos of 2020-2021 may become the new normal of 2030.
Think about SF decay. Fast, but not overnight, not all at once. For riots too?
Think about SF decay. Fast, but not overnight, not all at once. For riots too?
With BTC, prices surge & then crash, but a new normal is established.
I'd been thinking about how to quantify this intuition for American anarchy. And one answer may simply be to plot reports of unrest.
While stochastic, it's generally up & to the right. visualcapitalist.com/mapping-civil-…
I'd been thinking about how to quantify this intuition for American anarchy. And one answer may simply be to plot reports of unrest.
While stochastic, it's generally up & to the right. visualcapitalist.com/mapping-civil-…
Parts of this thesis are by no means unique to me. Turchin (@Peter_Turchin) predicted serious domestic US conflict 10 years ago, and has a rough model. Read his work, look at his graphs.
1: nature.com/articles/48802…
2: thesciencesurvey.com/spotlight/2021…
3: wired.com/2013/04/cliody…
1: nature.com/articles/48802…
2: thesciencesurvey.com/spotlight/2021…
3: wired.com/2013/04/cliody…
But my emerging thinking is: between American anarchy and Chinese control, India could be an intermediate.
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