Polish PM Mateusz #Morawiecki and EU Commission President Ursula @VonDerLeyen will have a showdown in the European Parliament this morning over the rule of law.

Mateusz insists he's not looking for #Polexit. Other EU leaders say his actions are inevitably leading there.
There's a lot at stake here.

In the short term, Poland could lose €24bn in grants & €12bn in loans in EU pandemic recovery funds.

In the long term, Poland's continued EU membership could become untenable if Warsaw refuses to follow EU law - sparking a political crisis at home
Slovenia's Foreign Minister Anže Logar opens the European Parliament's #RuleOfLaw debate (he's currently chairing EU foreign minister meetings).

"The EU is a union of law, and the primacy of EU law is the foundation of it."
"In EU architecture primacy of EU law is the way to guarantee equality of member states before the treaties, and to ensure that all EU citizens enjoy the same rights," says Slovenia's foreign minsiter. "Without primacy, application of EU law would vary from one member to another"
The primacy of EU law "is, ultimately, the basis for our living together in a common European home," Slovenia's foreign minister says as Polish PM #Morawiecki sits in front of him.

"The presidency is committed to advancing [article 7] proceedings in Council in December"
Commission President @VonDerLeyen speaking now. She starts be evoking the memory of people rising up against the Communist government in Poland in 1981.

"The people if Poland wanted democracy...they wanted independent courts to protect their rights."
"The people of Central and Eastern Europe wanted to join the European family of free people. A strong community of values and democracy," says President @VonDerLeyen.

"The recent ruling of the Polish constitutional court puts much of that into question."
"This ruling calls into question the foundations of the European Union," says President @VonDerLeyen.

"It is a direct challenge to the unity of the European legal order. Only a common legal order provides equal rights, legal certainty, mutual trust & therefor common policies".
"This is the first time ever that the court of a member state finds that the EU treaties are incompatible with the national constitution," says VDL.

"This has serious consequences for the Polish people, because the ruling has a direct impact on the protection of the judiciary."
"Polish people must be able to rely on fair and equal treatment in the judicial system, just like any other EU citizen," says VDL.

"In our union we all enjoy the same rights, and this basic principle fundamentally impacts peoples lives."
"When joining the EU, the Polish people put their trust in the EU" says VDL.

"They expected the EU to defend their rights, & rightly so. The Commission is the guardian of the treaty. It is my Commission's duty to protect the rights of EU citizens wherever they live in our union"
"This is what all 27 member states have signed up to as part of this union, as sovereign countries and free people" says President @VonDerLeyen.

"We cannot and we will not allow our common values to be put at risk. The Commission will act, and the options are all known."
"The Polish constitutional court that cast doubt on the validity of our treaty is the same court that under Article 7 we consider not to be independent and legitimate," says VDL.

"This in many ways comes full circle. I deeply regret that we find ourselves in this situation."
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki responding now at #RuleOfLaw debate in European Parliament.

"I will talk about how diversity and mutual respect are important to all of us," he says.
"EU integration is our choice, this is our destiny," says the Polish prime minister.

"Europe is our place, we do not want to go anywhere else. We want Europe to be strong and courageous. We are not looking at short-term benefits."
"The very foundation of the EU is the principle of democracy. Therefor we will not remain silent when our country is being attacked, also in this room, in an unjust and partial way," the Polish prime minister says, glaring out at the members of the European Parliament.
"I reject the language of threats," says Poland's prime minister. "I will not have EU politicians blackmail Poland."

"We are a proud country, with one of the longest histories of statehood and democracy."
"The EU is a strong political and economic organism - it is the strongest, best-developed international organisation in history," says Poland's prime minister.

"But, the EU is not a state. We have 27 member states in Europe, they remain the masters of treaties."
"There is no doubt that EU law has primacy over national acts of law in those areas that were delegated by the member state," says Poland's prime minister.

"But the court of justice seems to be deriving new competences for the EU."
"Do not spread further lies about #Polexit or Poland leaving the EU," says the prime minister.

"In our national legal system the primacy of EU law does not extend to our constitutional system."
"We will never agree to have instructions or dictats issued to member states. This is not what the EU is about. We have a lot in common, we want more and more in common. But there are differences between us"

"EU will not fall apart only because our legal systems are different"
Polish PM concludes after a very long speech that went *way* over his allocated time.

The EP speaker notes he was flexible in not cutting him off so nobody can say PM didn't have his say in the EP.

"But respect of allocated time is also a way of showing respect for this house"

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More from @DaveKeating

20 Oct
Really alarming.

The contrast with countries next door which have come out of lockdown more gradually (nightclubs only reopened here in Belgium 2 weeks ago) is striking. edition.cnn.com/2021/10/20/uk/…
Even more startling in graph form.

The UK health minister is expected to make an announcement shortly. ImageImage
Secretary Javid says UK gov will *not* at this time activate plan B to tighten restrictions in response to the rapidly rises cases.

He says UK can learn to live with the virus even through the anticipated difficult winter. Image
Read 4 tweets
13 Oct
Commission VP @MarosSefcovic emphasising in his press conference the advantages of the protocol for Northern Ireland, whose "unique position" in both UK and EU customs area is attracting interest from investors worldwide, he says.
Sefcovic is asked what EU will do if UK triggers Article 16.

He says he wants to stay "on a positive note, on the benefits this package and EU market access is offering to Northern Ireland".
Sefcovic notes it was already unprecedented for EU to have "delegated the control of our external borders to our UK partners" but preserving peace on the island of Ireland was worth making this unusual arrangement.

He says proposals for a laxer implementation also unprecedented.
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
EU Commission now unveiling a toolbox of measures to to respond to rapidly rising energy prices as demand upticks post-pandemic.

They’re under intense pressure from national governments to do something. But most of this toolbox is just reminding countries what *they* can do.
EU Energy Commissioner @KadriSimson reminds governments that #EUETS revenues are way up.

“We call on member states to use that additional income to address the social impact of the energy price surge where needed.”
Immediate measures include:

👩‍👧‍👧Emergency income support for the energy-poor through vouchers

💶Deferred bill payments;

🏦Temporary, targeted reductions in taxation rates

🏬Aid to companies ion line with EU state aid rules
Read 7 tweets
7 Oct
The centre-right European Peoples Party, to which President von der Leyen and Chancellor Merkel belong, has responded to this by putting out a statement saying the Polish government "is pushing Poland on the road to #Polexit" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“By declaring that the EU Treaties are not compatible with Polish law, the illegitimate Constitutional Tribunal in #Poland has put the country on the path to Polexit," says EPP MEP Jeroen Lenaers, EPP spokesman for Justice and Home Affairs. eppgroup.eu/newsroom/news/…
The EPP says Prime Minister #Morawiecki, who requested this ruling from the PiS-created tribunal, "has not only legitimised an illegal system of the judiciary in Poland, but he has also questioned the very basis of the European Union," says MEP Lenaers.
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
Looks like Laschet's CSU rival Markus Söder was waiting to see if CDU/CDU could overtake or tie SPD before taking the knives out.

Now that it's clear SPD 'won', he says the Union has no compelling claim to government formation.
zeit.de/amp/news/2021-…
I think it's becoming clear that if we end up with another grand coalition (🟥⬛️) or jamaica coalition (⬛️🟨🟩) it will only be because the logical coalition of the election result, the traffic light (🟥🟨🟩) talks somehow failed.

Which is still a very real possibility.
Scholz agrees with Söder.

“CDU and CSU have not only lost a considerable amount of votes, but they also received the message from citizens that they should no longer be in government but should go into the opposition,” the SPD leader said at a press conference earlier.
Read 4 tweets
26 Sep
First exit poll out as voting ends in #GermanElection2021, from Infratest-Dimap

⬛️CDU/CSU: 25%
🟥SPD: 25%
🟩Greens: 15%
🟦FDP: 11%
🟫AFD: 11%
🟪Linke: 5%

If these are accurate, it's disappointing for centre-left and encouraging for centre-right. But it's only an exit poll.
This is effectively too close to call, and leaves open the crucial question of who will come first and have the 1st mandate to try to form a government.

It's going to be a long night.
Not just a long night, but potentially a long several months.

This exit poll suggests that the result will be even more unclear than people expected. A tie or near-tie gives no clear mandate for government formation.

Means #Merkel may remain chancellor as caretaker till 2022.
Read 5 tweets

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