RBI's Economic Activity Index (EIA) indicates that real GDP grew by 9.6 per cent in July-Sep 2021.

Q1FY22 was at 20.1%. So ~7.5% is already baked in cake; two quarters to go. Many estimates will be revised upwards. They overcorrected for second wave - and are conceptually wrong.
In fact, the second wave has all but guaranteed (along with other factors) that FY23 is also likely to see ~double digit real growth. Ultimately growth is both path dependent *and* based on factors of production. COVID is a unique (and tragic) macro-econ experiment in that sense.
“In the next fiscal year (FY2022-23), consensus expects output to be 8% higher than in FY2019-20, whereas output today might already be 13% higher” by @neelkanthmishra

tessellatum.in/?p=384
This echoes my substack post about how to think of growth with Covid year/quarter as a base.

longindia.substack.com/p/how-to-think…

“…there is nothing wrong with India’s factors of production compared to our past, if anything they are improving like clockwork…”

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More from @harshmadhusudan

20 Oct
No of airports, metros, dedicated freight corridors, semi high speed lines, expressways, highways, roads, ports, sanitation/sewage systems, electricity/drinking water last mile networks on top of “soft” infra, digital public goods is incredible. More to come #LongIndia #NewIndia
2015-2025 will be the decade when we connected the last billion Indians to national and global economy. It wouldn’t be something that only the rich or the middle classes can do anymore. The deluge of human productivity and aspirations that this is releasing is just mind boggling.
Imagine a now rural or ‘rurban’ household which within the next 3-5 years can afford a made-in-India AC, washing machine, microwave, EV 2W etc, can order for goods/food online. Imagine change in women’s lives especially- and if more of them are educated, decide to join workforce.
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Apartheid South Africa, Jim Crow America - these labels are being used to defame India, Sangh Parivar, PM Modi, BJP CMs, Hindutva, Dharma etc.

But nearly everyday actual killings happen in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and within India - Kashmir.
A peaceful boycott of a company - a right of all consumers - is termed terrorism, but actual physical-real, flesh-blood, life-death terrorism is not called so.

Words have no meaning, like they have not had under Gandhian-Nehruvian secularism for some time.

Truly it is all maya.
There is zero empathy to even try to understand another's point of view. Consider Bangladesh (originally East Bengal) where Hindus have been consistently driven out for decades. But in West Bengal the party which the majority of Hindus vote for doesn't get to form the government.
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
It is important to understand that China gets India's economic potential in another decade precisely because they did it themselves; they know when India gets the playbook on growth as it has under PM Modi. Corollary is that sabotage attempts are inevitable. Do keep that context.
Pakistan is but a manifestation of its highest ideal: the Jihadi. It is a small economy that has chosen self-harm to get parity with Kafir India and Kafir China is happy to play along. But threat is from China and an open society/polity like India is vulnerable to disinformation.
Whatever great humanist and universalist ideals India has, and we can continue to discuss that, can only be achieved if India itself becomes great. There should be an unapologetic aim to become a great power, a superpower. And greatness never comes cheap. It never has-never will.
Read 4 tweets
18 Sep
Apastamba Dharma-sutra (in English)
wisdomlib.org/hinduism/book/…

"The Dharmasutra of Āpastamba forms a part of the larger Kalpasūtra of Āpastamba. It contains thirty praśnas, which literally means questions or books. The subjects of this Dharmasūtra are well organized and preserved."
Praśṇa I, Paṭala 1, Khaṇḍa 1

...
4. four castes--Brāhmaṇas, Kṣatriyas, Vaiśyas, and Śūdras.

5. Amongst these, each preceding is superior by birth to the one following.

6. excepting Śūdras and those who have committed bad actions, the initiation, the study of the Veda
...
Praśna I, Paṭala 1, Khaṇḍa 3

25. Bringing all he obtains to his teacher, he shall go begging with a vessel in the morning and in the evening, (and he may) beg (from everybody) except low-caste people unfit for association (with Āryas) and Abhiśastas.
Read 9 tweets
18 Sep
In Rajasthan, the Congress government is trying to register child marriages and the BJP is vociferously opposed. When people ask what is Hindu modernity, well, this is Hindu modernity.
Bal Gangadhar Tilak opposed the increase of marriage age consent to 12 during colonial times. One can understand both sides of the argument there since we didn’t rule ourselves. But to pretend - as many do that we are not free anymore, however imperfectly - is to fool oneself.
How should we approach such an issue? For some groups, making forcing girls to get married before they turn women maybe optimal from their point of view - as defined by some men. What about the individual women/girls? What about their rights? Or are their views of no consequence?
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
On the 100th birth anniversary of George Washington, the US Congress commissioned a marble sculpture of him.

Who was he made to look like?
Like the God Zeus at Olympia.
What about the Lincoln Memorial in DC? It was inspired by the Parthenon - a temple in Athens, Greece. It was forcibly converted into a church and then a mosque. Only in 2017, did Greece recognise Hellenism as a religion.

There are many answers out there if you connect the dots.
What about the Mission that took Man to Moon? It was called Apollo, another Greek God.

In fact the planets have been named after the Gods and some of the months as well.
Read 4 tweets

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