RBI's Economic Activity Index (EIA) indicates that real GDP grew by 9.6 per cent in July-Sep 2021.
Q1FY22 was at 20.1%. So ~7.5% is already baked in cake; two quarters to go. Many estimates will be revised upwards. They overcorrected for second wave - and are conceptually wrong.
Q1FY22 was at 20.1%. So ~7.5% is already baked in cake; two quarters to go. Many estimates will be revised upwards. They overcorrected for second wave - and are conceptually wrong.
In fact, the second wave has all but guaranteed (along with other factors) that FY23 is also likely to see ~double digit real growth. Ultimately growth is both path dependent *and* based on factors of production. COVID is a unique (and tragic) macro-econ experiment in that sense.
“In the next fiscal year (FY2022-23), consensus expects output to be 8% higher than in FY2019-20, whereas output today might already be 13% higher” by @neelkanthmishra
tessellatum.in/?p=384
tessellatum.in/?p=384
This echoes my substack post about how to think of growth with Covid year/quarter as a base.
longindia.substack.com/p/how-to-think…
“…there is nothing wrong with India’s factors of production compared to our past, if anything they are improving like clockwork…”
longindia.substack.com/p/how-to-think…
“…there is nothing wrong with India’s factors of production compared to our past, if anything they are improving like clockwork…”
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
