1. Very proud to have coauthored this report on the legal case for activating the rule of law conditionality Regulation against Hungary with Kim Scheppele and @JMorijn, at the request of @daniel_freund & @GreensEFA. Quick 🧵below & here is the report 👉 danielfreund.eu/wp-content/upl…
2. Essentially, we did the @EU_Commission's work for it. We drafted a model "notification" under Article 6(1) of the Rule of Law Conditionality regulation, which is the first step the Commission must take to trigger the regulation with respect to a member state
3. The @EU_Commission is supposed to send such a notification to a member state when it determines that breaches of rule of law principles affect or seriously risk affecting the management of the EU budget or the financial interests of the Union
4. We present the legal case that this serious risk already exists in Hungary because Hungary has already engaged in grave breaches of the rule of law as defined in the Regulation. So the @EU_Commission should trigger it immediately.
5. This graphic in the report summarizes the case. The key violations in Hungary concern lack of transparent management of EU funds, lack of effective national prosecution service to prosecute fraud, & lack of guarantee of independent courts to ensure EU law is enforced
6. In addition to the model notification, the report also contains a background discussion with illustrations of ongoing corruption of EU funds in Hungary & a legal appendix with an extensive analysis of the Regulation & how it relates to other EU instruments
7. @EU_Commission doesn't need to draft any "guidelines" before it can apply the Reg & it doesn't need to await @EUCourtPress rulings in HU & PL's ridiculous annulment actions. The Regulation can be applied today. @EU_Commission is free to copy our model & email it to Orban
8. Glad to see lots of press coverage of the report already such as here... ft.com/content/4d7958…
15. Finally & most importantly deep thanks to the many Hungarian legal experts & NGOs who kindly provided advice to us in writing this report. 🙏 Not sure I should mention them by name w/o permission - as they might then be targeted by the Orban autocracy. END
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A momentous day as Orbán leaves the @EPPGroup that has defended & empowered him for a decade as he built the EU’s first autocracy. Having written articles & given interviews on the topic for years, I’m feeling a bit like this 👇 today. 🧵to follow shortly on the whole saga. 1/n
2. First of all we must appreciate what a huge step this is. @EPP / @EPPGroup political protection was crucial in enabling Orban to build an autocracy within the EU. His departure won't instantly free the EU from its autocracy trap, but it is a huge step and cause to celebrate!
3. Europarties providing political protection to pet autocrats is a key pillar of the "EU's Authoritarian Equilibrium." @EPP isn't the only Europarty to have a pet autocrat/aspiring autocrat, but it has been the worst offender. See my article & 🧵here 👇
I agree 100% with @dreynders’ sentiments here & hope EU will finally act, but so far EU & @EU_Commission specifically have in fact tolerated the destruction of press freedom In Hungary for years - first the closing of independent newspapers, then news websites, now radio
18. #BrexitReality 🧵: "On 4 January billions of euros of business left the UK for the EU"... "Britain is now losing its very strong position in trading of European equities in London” independent.co.uk/news/business/…
1. So many stories coming out revealing that Brexiteers sold Brexit on lies and that reality of Brexit is turning out - just as experts had warned - to be a fiasco and an enormous act of economic self-harm for UK. I’ll keep track of some in this Brexit reality thread🧵 👇
Lots of smoke & mirrors in fight over rule of law. Here's my take in @POLITICOEurope on what's really going on: "If European leaders want to escape this autocracy trap, they must begin by standing up forcefully to regimes that try to hold the EU hostage"🧵 politico.eu/article/time-t…
2. First, on how we got here, it all goes back to @EPP appeasement of their pet autocrat Orbán over past decade. "The EPP has protected Orbán for political gain... But this week its pet autocrat turned against his long-time protectors" They are now reaping what they sowed.
3. As those who follow me know, I've been writing about this for years - most recently in my Article on "The European Union's Authoritarian Equilibrium" - summarized here:
A quick, depressing 🧵 on what to expect in next steps toward autocracy in Poland. I hope @fromTGA is right and Poles will defend their democracy. However, I think things will get much worse and Poland will become an autocracy like Hungary 1/n
So far Kaczyński’s PiS government has been following the standard elected autocrat’s playbook very closely, following Orbán’s example of how to get away with building an autocracy inside the EU. Here are the steps: 2/n
As @fromTGA said, so far PiS focused on capturing the courts, turning state media into propaganda arm, & demonizing opposition. Next key steps will be to suppress vestiges of independence in lower ranks of judiciary & to establish PiS control over private media 3/n