I am no expert on China, but I know a thing or two about economics, communism & transition. It looks as if china is approaching a sudden stop for many reasons.
1. With a GDP per capita of about $11,000 it is approaching a typical middle-income trap as Russia since 2009.
1. With a GDP per capita of about $11,000 it is approaching a typical middle-income trap as Russia since 2009.
2. China is highly corrupt from the top down as Desmond Shum shows wo well in his wonderful new book "Red Roulette." Minxin Pei did so in his 2016 book "China's Crony Capitalism." Bad governance can deliver high growth for several years, but only in poor countries.
3. The ultimate blow to China's economy is Xi Jinping, who appears a combination of Putin & Erich Honecker, all about voluntarist absolute power and nothing about sensible economics. Each week he makes another mad decision. He is the greatest threat to China.
4. Xi's attack on Alibaba looks like Putin's devastation of Yukos oil company. He seems to follow Putin also in his devastation of private education. With a leader such as Xi, China needs no enemies.
5. By prohibiting imports of coal from Australia as Australia sensibly asked for an investigation of the origin of the coronavirus, Xi has unleashed a major energy crisis in China, which is now impeding production & causing supply problems, reducing GDP growth to 4.9% yoy in Q3.
6. China's old underlying twin crisis is excessive indebtedness (covered with excessive private savings) and the biggest real estate bubble the world ever saw. Sooner or later it will explode & Xi is likely to blow it up.
7. Possibly realizing that he is causing severe damage to the Chinese economy & nation, alleged multi-billionaire Xi is increasingly turning to foreign aggression just like his soul mate Putin. What a mess!
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