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Anders Åslund Profile picture
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20 Oct, 9 tweets, 2 min read
Europe & East Asia are going through a major gas crisis. Astoundingly, the EU & the US do nothing. They could & should do so much if they were responsible policymakers.
1. EU should reinforce its energy policy. It has let its reserve requirements slip & suppliers (Gazprom!) should not be allowed to own European storage against the spirit of the 3rd energy package of 2009. Storage & converters are needed for a free gas market.
2. The US & EU should call out Russia for its gas squeeze of Europe. Suddenly, Gazprom stops selling to the European gas spot market & incorrectly claims that is not market manipulation. Have the EU & US lost their voices?
3. The Putin idea of Nord Stream 2 is to cut Ukraine out. The gas pipeline through Ukraine has a capacity of at least 120 bcm/year, while Russia's exports to the EU is about 130 bcm/year (maximum 165 bcm in 2019), but Russia has cut its Ukraine transit to 40 bcm this year.
4. At his energy conference on October 13, Putin presented all kinds of nonsense (as usual) about the Ukrainian pipeline not being able to deliver more. Why don't the US & the EU call him out on obvious lies?
5. The least one could expect in this gas crisis is that the US & EU cooperated. Instead, today's news is that China has signed with Washington-based Venture Global a big LNG deal to double China's annual LNG import volumes from U.S.
Is the US supporting China against the EU?
6. This is happening after US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm went to Ukraine on September 24 & rightly expressed great solidarity with Ukraine.
Does the US have an energy policy?
If so, what is it? Russia and China first?!
7. On July 21, the US & Germany made a statement as unrealistic as unfortunate to allow Nord Stream 2.
Since Russia has clarified that it is pursuing an energy war against Europe, why is not @POTUS implementing the legislated sanctions against NS2?
8. The monumental mistakes by Germany, the EU & the US on European gas policy will have big costs. All the three parties involved had better correct them before they are being steamrolled by reality.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
20 Oct
I am no expert on China, but I know a thing or two about economics, communism & transition. It looks as if china is approaching a sudden stop for many reasons.
1. With a GDP per capita of about $11,000 it is approaching a typical middle-income trap as Russia since 2009.
2. China is highly corrupt from the top down as Desmond Shum shows wo well in his wonderful new book "Red Roulette." Minxin Pei did so in his 2016 book "China's Crony Capitalism." Bad governance can deliver high growth for several years, but only in poor countries.
3. The ultimate blow to China's economy is Xi Jinping, who appears a combination of Putin & Erich Honecker, all about voluntarist absolute power and nothing about sensible economics. Each week he makes another mad decision. He is the greatest threat to China.
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
15 Oct
Absurdly, Servant of the People faction leader David Arakhamia has proposed a law to “temporarily” prohibit private companies to sell gas at commercial market prices restoring the old disastrous post-Soviet policy of subsidization that reforms ended in 2015-16.
2. Arakhamia claims that this gas can be used to the benefit of budget organizations, just as in the old Soviet days. He motivates this policy in a populist fashion as hitting against three oligarchs who produce gas in Ukraine.
3. But who would it benefit? Ukraine’s leading gas trader Dmytro Firtash, who knows how to make money on distorted gas markets. Incidentally, Ukrainska Pravda revealed that Arakhamia traveled on Firtash’s private jet to Vienna in January and February.
kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi…
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
12 Oct
Can anybody explain what US Treasury Secretary Yellen means? "Yellen spoke with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to discuss the serious issues raised by the investigation into the World Bank’s Doing Business 2018 report."
"Secretary Yellen expressed that her priority is to preserve the integrity and credibility of the World Bank and the IMF, and for that reason, it was essential that the IMF Board conducted a thorough, fair, and timely review of the findings by WilmerHale."
"Secretary Yellen...noted it is Treasury’s view, in line with other IMF Board members, that absent further direct evidence with regard to the role of the Managing Director there is not a basis for a change in IMF leadership."
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
6 Oct
Putin today: "gas reserves in many European countries’ underground storage facilities dwindled as a result of the harsh winter in early 2021."
Because much belongs to Gazprom & are filled to only 10-15%.
Gazprom should not be allowed to own EU storage.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Putin: "the practices of our European partners [are to blame]. These practices have reaffirmed that, properly speaking, they have made mistakes. We were talking with the former European Commission"
How can the EU be blamed for Russian extortion?!
Putin's forecast: "the gas price has broken all historical records. Today it is approaching $2,000 per thousand cubic metres of gas, which is over ten times last year’s average price."
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
29 Sep
Revisiting the Joint Statement of the United States and Germany on Support for Ukraine, European Energy Security, and our Climate Goals: "We recommit ourselves today to push back against Russian aggression and malign activities in Ukraine and beyond."
state.gov/joint-statemen…
2. The US & "Germany are united in their determination to hold Russia to account for its aggression and malign activities by imposing costs via sanctions ... to respond together to Russian aggression and malign activities, including Russian efforts to use energy as a weapon."
3. "Should Russia attempt to use energy as a weapon...Germany will take action at the national level and press for effective measures at the European level, including sanctions, to limit Russian export capabilities to Europe in the energy sector, including gas..."
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
4 Sep
Excellent article by David Kramer: "U.S. policymakers have consistently failed to see Putin as a true threat who will only stop when faced with serious pushback."
politico.com/news/magazine/…
"“playing nice” with Putin plays right into his playbook. While Biden may seek “predictability and stability” in the U.S.-Russia relationship, Putin’s end goal is precisely to stir up as much instability as possible."
David Kramer: "Every time the West responds weakly or not at all, he pushes even further with his destabilization efforts."
Conclusion: "Time to take the gloves off and go after the assets of Putin and his inner circle. Time to back up our warnings with actions."
Read 4 tweets

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