First time I’ve seen this very useful table from near the start of the pandemic which assigns a score to what’s essentially the housing crisis contribution to the pandemic - note Swedens position at the bottom of the table while we are 3rd worst at top
And breaking down some of the factors that make up that housing crisis score. Given the huge role of household transmission the advantage to having a lot of single occupier households where there is nobody else to infect is self evident in making it easier to control
Going back to this table people have been asking why Denmark, Finland, Germany & Sweden have lower cases with much open. Those are the four least effected by ‘housing crisis’ overcrowding conditions as measured here. Norway not listed but also would be low on scale
So our difficulty exiting the pandemic is in part due not only to under resourcing health but also due to under resourcing housing. And fixing both these is the work of years, not weeks but also something of immense value beyond the pandemic. We also score badly on sick pay
With all those disadvantages it’s remarkable we have one of the lowest mortalities in Europe - entirely the collective work of the population & despite the policies imposed by decades of governments of landlords & bosses

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More from @andrewflood

21 Oct
Looking in details at 63 #Covid19Ireland deaths added week shows a larger proportion of younger ages, larger proportion at home and all but one in recent months from comparison with last weeks
Under 25 +2
25-34 +1
35-44 +1
45-54 NC
55-64 +4
65-74 +16
75-84 +15
85plus +24
/1 Image
1 January 2021, 25 added to months covered by July NPHET scenarios - some commentators prematurely thought we had come further under deaths scn than was likely because they were not allowing for report lag
Jan+1
July+1
Aug+4
Sep+19
Oct+37 (Of which 21 were prior to this week)/2 ImageImage
The 10 occurring at home is 4 times the rate of the pandemic overall which along with the younger ages might indicate C19 triggered heart attacks?

Settings
Hospital +25
Res Institution +20
Home +10
Unknown +8

Outbreak linked
Nursing home +22
Hospital +4
Community Hos +1
/3 Image
Read 14 tweets
20 Oct
Big surge in #Covid19Ireland ICU admissions today which TBH already throughs the push ahead with reopening into doubt. Highest occupancy since 19th March
86 ICU is 125% last Weds
49 ICU admissions this week is 153% previous
ICU admissions are 13% NHC, 0.5% cases /1
There was a lot of (strange) commentary that treated the August NPHET scenarios as missed targets & so is now wondering why healthcare can't cope now. Better to understand them as avoided fears that would have caused enormous disruption - which we are now heading towards /2
There appear to have been two deaths as only 12 additional occupancy but that would have filled all the available ICU beds yesterday which presumably means surge capacity will be activated by taking operating theatres out of use - so a lot of cancelled other healthcare /3
Read 5 tweets
19 Oct
Alarming #Covid19Ireland 2399 cases tonight, 167% last Tues but partially because the swab backlog caught up today rather than tomorrow. Swabs are still 131% same days last week though so still unsustainable /1
2399 cases is 167% last Tues 13144 cases this week is 127% previous - both those are the highest figures since January so just as well vaccination is greatly reducing hospitalisations & deaths as otherwise things would be very grim rather than somewhat grim /2
So far New Hospital cases rising more slowly but there is also very very little capacity
472 hospital is 117% last Tues
472 New Hospital Cases this week is 117% previous
NHC are 3.6% of cases
/3
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
There is an anti-vaxx conspiracy claim that most of ICU being unvaccinated is only because stats are calculated as one lump all the way back to April. In fact a 1/3 or less ICU admissions being vaccinated ratio holds for August & September - I tracked ICU admission numbers /1 ImageImage
Given the massively higher mortality risk for over 70s & 99% plus of the population fully vaccinated it surprised me that only 1/3 of deaths were not fully vaccinated in August - 10% would not have surprised me /2 ImageImage
With both deaths & ICU status there is the question of how many of vaccinated recorded happened to be infected rather than were in ICU or had died because of Covid. Presumably hard to have certainty around either but likely there were some raising vaccine effectiveness but../3
Read 11 tweets
13 Oct
My hmmm I fear this might be the 5th wave of last week has solidified strongly in last days with todays 2,066 cases being 210% of last Weds & the 11,423 cases this week 143% of previous week. On the cases plot we are visibly rising fast & non longer on Reduced Transmission /1
Post vaccination if it was just cases my concern would be qualified but its clearer from hospital situation - this lags cases so next week will be worse
408 hospital cases is 118% last Weds
341 new hospital cases in week 128% previous
NHC are 4.3% of cases in week to Oct6 /2
ICU is more complex, in part because of 6 deaths in the last 3 days leading to a dip. It lags but there might be a glimmer of hope in terms of post-vaxx severity
69 ICU is 98.6% last Weds
32 ICU admissions this week is 89% previous
ICU admissions are 10% NHCs /3
Read 20 tweets
11 Oct
Le Sigh - an early update of the NPHETs Exit #Covid19Ireland cases plot confirms what looks like the start of the 5th wave with
1358 cases 152% last Monday
9999 cases this week at 113% previous
With the end of contact tracing in schools we should have seen a missed case drop /1
The potential emerging 5th wave is also clear on the New Hospital Cases Plot - the doubling of case severity in the last 2-3 weeks is an unexplained concern
400 hospital is 120% last Monday
308 new hospital cases this week is 116% last week
NHC were 3.65% cases in previous week/2
Likewise ICU shows a rise when NPHETs Exit expected a fall - we did well for 2 months, now its at least doubtful
75 ICU is 117% last Monday
36 ICU admissions is 109% previous week
ICU admissions are 12.5% NHC
/3
Read 5 tweets

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