Thread by @andrewflood

Looking in details at 63 #Covid19Ireland deaths added week shows a larger proportion of younger ages, larger proportion at home and all but one in recent months from comparison with last weeks
Under 25 +2
25-34 +1
35-44 +1
45-54 NC
55-64 +4
65-74 +16
75-84 +15
85plus +24
/1

1 January 2021, 25 added to months covered by July NPHET scenarios - some commentators prematurely thought we had come further under deaths scn than was likely because they were not allowing for report lag
Jan+1
July+1
Aug+4
Sep+19
Oct+37 (Of which 21 were prior to this week)/2

The 10 occurring at home is 4 times the rate of the pandemic overall which along with the younger ages might indicate C19 triggered heart attacks?

Settings
Hospital +25
Res Institution +20
Home +10
Unknown +8

Outbreak linked
Nursing home +22
Hospital +4
Community Hos +1
/3

Dublin with c1/3 of cases only saw c1/6 of deaths. Cork, Kerry & Kildare all high in population terms which may indicate outbreak locations. Cork has been high for weeks /4

Of 63 notifications in this report
Women +27
Men +36
No underlying conditions +21 (v. high proportion)
Admitted to ICU +9
Two comments follow but for full report at hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator…
/5

Comment 1 - The 155 Sept deaths with it likely more will be added hints at the actual cost of 'living with Covid' as vaccination was already high by August. Over a year that would be about 2,000 deaths even before allowing for continued case rise. /6

Comment 2 - the significant rise in the proportion in younger age groups suggests the impact of vaccine protection on older groups who are almost all vaccinated, as does the high proportion with no underlying conditions (also less likely to be vaccinated). /7

Comment 3 - Given the age of our population if we had no vaccine & everyone was infected slowly we could have expected c40,000 deaths. So 2k deaths is compatible with a vaccine 95% effective against death in a situation where everyone gets exposed (ie living with Covid) /8

Large peaks as we are about to experience will push up excess deaths due to the delay & denial of other care - this has been very clear from the north of Ireland where excess death peaks match Covid peaks. If you have a heart attack while ambulances are busy you odds are worse/9

I'll add there are no easy solutions to this & NPHET seem to have gone with the 'hopefully get it over with in a controlled manner' by accepting the infection of the unvaccinated giving the vast majority who survive some immunity as well. But .. /10

There are multiple risks & unknowns. Data from Iran suggest 2/3/4 infections happens at short intervals & there may not be much reduction in severity. Iran has been hit hard repeatedly but still a lot of hospitalisations & deaths in later waves. UK also not encouraging /11

There is evidence that when what is probably now one of our common cold Coronavirus crossed the species barrier in Asia 20,000 years ago it took hundreds of years to stop having a major impact on the human population /12
indiatoday.in/science/story/…

The burden of longcovid is still unknown, coupled with the above will that mean a growing section of the population left with long terms or even permanent disabilities and perhaps dying much sooner than they would otherwise? The range of opinion on this is very wide /13

NPHETs gamble is that the reassuring opinion on these questions will prove to be closer to the truth over time than the more alarming opinion. In which case taking a hit in the short term that is unavoidable in the long term gives us some sort of healthcare normal from Spring /14

the equivalent gamble in the UK is not working out - they have had high cases, hospital & deaths for months but still have only reached 20% anti-N seroprevalence (it indicates anti bodies via infection rather than vaccination)

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1451216022883741697