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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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21 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Just a few small excerpts from todays Real Vision Pro (like a cut down Global Macro Investor created with my partner @JulianMI2of @MI2Partners - different perspectives add huge value, just ask our members).

BTC continues to follow 2013 very well.
I think there is a decent chance (not a certainty) that this BTC cycle extends longer in time and higher in price...
Here is the chart using the uptrend from 2015 low... same outcome.
And ETH...bigger move...$40k by March/June would only be 1 standard deviation overbought versus trend.
This is not a certainty. It is a probabilistic outcome. For me, $20k ETH and $200k BTC is a shoe in (70% + chance)

What outperforms and how this plays out is anyones guess...

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
16 Oct
Final thought for a Friday night:

You can be angry at central banks, government, debt, demographics or politics and how it affects us all or you can be optimistic and migrate to the new world of digital assets. The choice is yours.
If it’s of any help to those that feel like they don’t trust this new world, I am blessed to have as friends many of the worlds most famous and successful investors and a huge percentage have moved to a hybrid of traditional strategies plus Exponential Age tech plus crypto.
You can bet with them or you can write them off as fools. But do you want to get against; Soros, Tiger, Moore Capital, Tudor, Brevan Howard, Balyasni, Etc. They are all involved as are many more from the Gov of Singapore to Abu Dhabi.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
16 Oct
If you don’t see by now that the tokenization of everything is the biggest thing we have ever seen and will ever see, I cant help you as much. It dwarfs all other opportunities for risk reward over time. Web 3.0 is something few yet understand but will change business forever. 1/
I’m working on getting RV into that world over time. So much cool shit in our plans!

But I’m working on setting up some other projects too.

Hedge funds in crypto produce amazing alpha but are capital starved. I’m going to solve that with a crypto fund of funds.
Sadly that is currently only for HNW and institutions as laws make it hard for normal people.

That launches very soon and solves some big issues for crypto hedge funds, family offices, investors and institutions.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
3 Oct
Things are happening so fast, and with such quantum leaps in NFT world, that I am struggling to get to grips with it, let alone all of the projects and breakthroughs.

1/
I totally get it at a relatively superficial conceptual level but the cultural depths and societal implications are something Im trying to catch up with but I know its bigger than Im imagining.

The issue for me is that is all feels like a closed group of those in the know
And the rest of us feel like we have our nose pressed up again the windows, looking it at everyone having a great time.

If you are not on Discord, and in the "in" crowd you literally have no idea how to approach this. Im not on Discord.
Read 10 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
2 Oct
Im finding it very hard to not get extremely bullish about the next few months. Almost every crypto chart looks coiled and ready for a big move after months of consolidation. Here are the two charts that matter to me right now:
This is total market cap. It is likely ready to move from 2 standard deviation oversold vs trend to overbought. That looks to me that the entire space can 3x into year end and 6x into next year ( I think the cycle extends).
The outright chart of market cap is ludicrously bullish once it crossed $900m in market cap and will be an acceleration point. Wave 3 in technical analysis term ushered in by this giant cup and handle/wedge.
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
26 Sep
Im watching with fascination the Hive Mind @RealVisionBot crypto portfolio based on community-only weightings. It has consistently outperformed the market. My view is that community is smarter than any individual as we all have access to quality information. 1/
We see the same in the @RealVisionBot Macro portfolio. The Hive Mind tends to outperform...This is the community survey. The Bot portfolio is a quant model based on the Experts on Real Vision.
I have a strongly held view that the traditional view of markets - "give your money to experts" has now changed into "Together, we are the experts" as the movement towards Web 3.0 and communities with open access to information has super-empowered community decision making.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
25 Sep
Just because perspective is useful for everyone... this is ETH 2021 vs BTC 2017
And here is BTC 2021 vs BTC 2013
Solana is also following ETH in 2017 (haven't got the chart to hand - if anyone has it pls add it).

These are all priced according to Metcalfe's Law hence why they are so similar to previous periods. The super high correlation is just spooky however... but a useful framework.
Read 4 tweets

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