Ok - this Trump : $DWAC SPAC is the greatest shit ever.

The DWAC CEO has an address in Wuhan, Hubei 🇨🇳 ! (No joke)

The CFO is a CURRENT congressman in Brazil.🇧🇷

The Trump TRUST Social product doesn’t even exist. Wtf

Can you imagine the insider selling when the lockup expires?
The $DWAC CEO’s Wuhan-based SPAC (you can’t make this shit up), Yunhong International, just had a failed merger.

Lol
$DWAC is not the SPAC we asked for, but it is the SPAC we needed.
Let's invert and give TRUTH credit for execution. What might that look like?
Always remember: great service makes a difference.
Trump's $DWAC pro forma net worth well over $20 billion at the current $130+ share price.

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More from @compound248

21 Oct
Below I pitch a $DWAC / Trump-SPAC bull case.

Getting a social platform off the ground is very doable. Getting a few million users is also very doable.

TRUTH likely needs an ad model + a subscription tier.

So what might the numbers look like if we give TRUTH credit?
🧵👇

1/x Image
If TRUTH is only extreme Trump fans, substantial ad monetization will be hard.

BUT let's assume TRUTH pulls it off reasonably well:

10mm DAUs

Bifurcating a subscription tier is also not easy (see Twitter), but let's assume a *very* strong 10% free-to-pay conversion.

2/x
Bull case on *just* TRUMP Social:

• 10mm DAUs
• Ad ARPU of $3/m
• 1mm paid subs (10% free-to-pay conversion)
• Subs net ARPU of $5/m

(10 x $3 x 12) + (1 x $5 x 12) = $420mm of revenue
40% EBITDA margins = $168mm EBITDA

10x Revenue or 25x EBITDA =
$4.2B EV

Not bad.

3/x
Read 8 tweets
21 Oct
Great long? Or greatest long?

The Trump / $DWAC TAM is…pretty big.

If I’m doing my math right, DWAC is easily a trillion market cap by mid-2022.

I mean, just look. At. That. TAM!

(This is a real slide from the TMTG (Trump Media & Trch Group) deck)
It’s huge. The hugest.
Read 4 tweets
2 Mar
Altice USA ($ATUS) CEO Goei with an extensive @CNBC interview.

Q: Will the cable TV bundle go away?
A: Yes.

Q: Fixed/mobile convergence in US?
A: Yes. Inevitable.

Q: Fiber vs cable?
A: The world will demand fiber.

cnbc.com/video/2021/03/…
TLDR:
$TMUS should merge with a cableco. Dexter can even picture Comcast and $VZ merging.

Altice would love to buy more cable assets, but very little has been for sale. Small purchase this week.

10%+ eq FCF yields & 3% cost of debt: expect us to keep buying back shares.

2/
Cablecos don’t need to bundle video. You end up hating us, because we have to pass through content price increases that $DIS forces on us. That leads to frustration & customer calls.

Let’s give you an awesome connection and easy tools to assemble & search content ala carte.

3/
Read 6 tweets
28 Feb
Legend, John Malone 🐐💎, in an hour-long video pod w/ Aryeh Bourkoff (TMT i-banker extraordinaire).

Take a trip through JM’s professional history (including when he & Buffett couldn’t understand how this kid Bill Gates’ little business had a moat).😱

1/
He and Buffett passed on investing in $MSFT’s IPO.

The second 30min talks about our modern times, and the business and technology environment.

He is a man who L❤️VES what he does.

He’s curious, smart, hungry, engaging. He knows his areas of competence.

Some lessons:
👇👇
- The value of surrounding yourself w/ quality people

- Trusting quality people to be great

- Form hypothesis first, then look at the data. Accept that feedback and hone your intuition

- Even if you’re right about the direction of the future, you’ll be wrong about the details
Read 5 tweets
27 Feb
Happy last Saturday in Feb!

It’s Warren Buffett’s annual letter - a chance to learn.

An oddly quiet year amidst the chaos, for $BRK. Sometimes it’s your job to simply keep your head when those around you are losing theirs.

I’ll add thoughts below later.
berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020lt…
Let’s get started.

Coffee + Wisdom shared by masters. I will thread highlights below: 👇👇
Berkshire’s resilience shines:
“We did, though, increase Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value by both retaining earnings and repurchasing about 5% of our shares.”

Rare to see a CEO state unequivocally that IVPS grew. Frankly, it’s rare to even mention IVPS.
Read 16 tweets
26 Feb
I’m grateful for the great feedback on my first in-depth Revue newsletter.

I wrote about $TWTR’s mic drop 🎤.

Twitter announced a bigger set of feature releases over the next few months than we’ve 👀 in the past few yrs.

Link to the newsletter:
👇💎👇

getrevue.co/profile/compou…
"For years, Twitter investors would complain:

Why are you letting Patreon build a business on Twitter?

Why are you letting Substack build a business on Twitter?

When will you help your Creators get paid?"
"Twitter was a customer acquisition engine for Creators, but that was all.

'Receiving nothing while giving much' may sound magnanimous, but it actually created a suboptimal user experience."
Read 7 tweets

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