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Compound248 Profile picture
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21 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Great long? Or greatest long?

The Trump / $DWAC TAM is…pretty big.

If I’m doing my math right, DWAC is easily a trillion market cap by mid-2022.

I mean, just look. At. That. TAM!

(This is a real slide from the TMTG (Trump Media & Trch Group) deck)
It’s glorious.

It’s huge. The hugest.
Source: tmtgcorp.com/static/tmtg-co…

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More from @compound248

Compound248 Profile picture
21 Oct
Below I pitch a $DWAC / Trump-SPAC bull case.

Getting a social platform off the ground is very doable. Getting a few million users is also very doable.

TRUTH likely needs an ad model + a subscription tier.

So what might the numbers look like if we give TRUTH credit?
🧵👇

1/x Image
If TRUTH is only extreme Trump fans, substantial ad monetization will be hard.

BUT let's assume TRUTH pulls it off reasonably well:

10mm DAUs

Bifurcating a subscription tier is also not easy (see Twitter), but let's assume a *very* strong 10% free-to-pay conversion.

2/x
Bull case on *just* TRUMP Social:

• 10mm DAUs
• Ad ARPU of $3/m
• 1mm paid subs (10% free-to-pay conversion)
• Subs net ARPU of $5/m

(10 x $3 x 12) + (1 x $5 x 12) = $420mm of revenue
40% EBITDA margins = $168mm EBITDA

10x Revenue or 25x EBITDA =
$4.2B EV

Not bad.

3/x
Read 8 tweets
Compound248 Profile picture
21 Oct
Ok - this Trump : $DWAC SPAC is the greatest shit ever.

The DWAC CEO has an address in Wuhan, Hubei 🇨🇳 ! (No joke)

The CFO is a CURRENT congressman in Brazil.🇧🇷

The Trump TRUST Social product doesn’t even exist. Wtf

Can you imagine the insider selling when the lockup expires?
America, 2021. 🇺🇸

The $DWAC CEO’s Wuhan-based SPAC (you can’t make this shit up), Yunhong International, just had a failed merger.

Lol
Read 7 tweets
Compound248 Profile picture
2 Mar
Altice USA ($ATUS) CEO Goei with an extensive @CNBC interview.

Q: Will the cable TV bundle go away?
A: Yes.

Q: Fixed/mobile convergence in US?
A: Yes. Inevitable.

Q: Fiber vs cable?
A: The world will demand fiber.

cnbc.com/video/2021/03/…
TLDR:
$TMUS should merge with a cableco. Dexter can even picture Comcast and $VZ merging.

Altice would love to buy more cable assets, but very little has been for sale. Small purchase this week.

10%+ eq FCF yields & 3% cost of debt: expect us to keep buying back shares.

2/
Cablecos don’t need to bundle video. You end up hating us, because we have to pass through content price increases that $DIS forces on us. That leads to frustration & customer calls.

Let’s give you an awesome connection and easy tools to assemble & search content ala carte.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Compound248 Profile picture
28 Feb
Legend, John Malone 🐐💎, in an hour-long video pod w/ Aryeh Bourkoff (TMT i-banker extraordinaire).

Take a trip through JM’s professional history (including when he & Buffett couldn’t understand how this kid Bill Gates’ little business had a moat).😱

1/
He and Buffett passed on investing in $MSFT’s IPO.

The second 30min talks about our modern times, and the business and technology environment.

He is a man who L❤️VES what he does.

He’s curious, smart, hungry, engaging. He knows his areas of competence.

Some lessons:
👇👇
- The value of surrounding yourself w/ quality people

- Trusting quality people to be great

- Form hypothesis first, then look at the data. Accept that feedback and hone your intuition

- Even if you’re right about the direction of the future, you’ll be wrong about the details
Read 5 tweets
Compound248 Profile picture
27 Feb
Happy last Saturday in Feb!

It’s Warren Buffett’s annual letter - a chance to learn.

An oddly quiet year amidst the chaos, for $BRK. Sometimes it’s your job to simply keep your head when those around you are losing theirs.

I’ll add thoughts below later.
berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020lt…
Let’s get started.

Coffee + Wisdom shared by masters. I will thread highlights below: 👇👇
Berkshire’s resilience shines:
“We did, though, increase Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value by both retaining earnings and repurchasing about 5% of our shares.”

Rare to see a CEO state unequivocally that IVPS grew. Frankly, it’s rare to even mention IVPS.
Read 16 tweets
Compound248 Profile picture
26 Feb
I’m grateful for the great feedback on my first in-depth Revue newsletter.

I wrote about $TWTR’s mic drop 🎤.

Twitter announced a bigger set of feature releases over the next few months than we’ve 👀 in the past few yrs.

Link to the newsletter:
👇💎👇

getrevue.co/profile/compou…
"For years, Twitter investors would complain:

Why are you letting Patreon build a business on Twitter?

Why are you letting Substack build a business on Twitter?

When will you help your Creators get paid?"
"Twitter was a customer acquisition engine for Creators, but that was all.

'Receiving nothing while giving much' may sound magnanimous, but it actually created a suboptimal user experience."
Read 7 tweets

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