For reference: I'm revisiting the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act, which was supposed to induce corporations to bring back the money they had invested overseas. For a few quarters it looked as if something was happening: 1/
On paper, overseas subsidiaries of U.S. corporations were disinvesting and sending funds back to their parent companies via dividends. But there was no real investment surge here 2/
What was really happening was almost surely just a rejiggering of the accounting. A large part of reported US investment abroad is just an accounting fiction, resulting from profit-shifting into tax havens 3/
A cut in the US tax rate induced corporations to unwind a bit of that profit-shifting, causing a brief dip in reported investment abroad and a brief surge in repatriated profits. 4/
But basically nothing real happened. It was all accounting fictions 5/
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Scott Sumner has an interesting thread about his recent paper on the "Princeton school" of macroeconomics, which includes among others yours truly and a guy named Bernanke (what ever happened to him?) 1/
A bit more on fossil fuels and West Virginia. The thing that always strikes me is that the state stopped being a coal-fueled economy a *long* time ago. Here's the share of coal mining in total compensation (a better measure than share of GDP, as I'll explain) 1/
Joe Manchin began his political career in the state legislature in 1982; at that point coal was responsible for 16 percent of payrolls. But it plunged in the years that followed, thanks to strip-mined coal in Wyoming and automation 2/
So King Coal had been dethroned a generation ago. It's fallen even further since, but the big decline is far in the past 3/
As always, Adam Tooze's latest, this time on coal and the West Virginia economy, is interesting and thought-provoking. But also, unusually, a bit credulous 1/ adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-46…
Tooze's numbers rely a lot on a study I cited for direct coal employment; but a lot of the rest of that study is, well, dubious 2/ wvcoal.com/news-2/latest-…
First of all, the study counts coal-fired electricity generation as part of the coal industry. But think about it: if we phased out coal, WV would still be generating power, just from other energy sources. Including this sector indicates an attempt to inflate the numbers 3/
A few thoughts on today's economics Nobel, which was of course richly deserved (and it's truly tragic that Alan Krueger isn't able to share in it, as he surely would have) 1/ nobelprize.org/prizes/economi…
This was a prize more for methods than for conclusions; the laureates were leaders in the "credibility revolution" in economics, the exploitation of natural experiments to sort out causation and the effects of policy 2/
Since the prize was about methodology — not even about the facts as much as about how to determine those facts — you might think it wouldn't be relevant to current policy debates. However ... 3/
Some idle speculation on platinum coins, 14th amendment, and all that. First of all, using any of these gimmicks would send the signal that we're a troubled country — but of course we are a troubled country, so that's not a deal-killer 1/
Nonetheless, the Biden admin would like to avoid using a gimmicky solution. First best is to shame Rs (and get business pressure to back up the shame) into acting responsibly. 2/
Barring that, which seems unlikely, get Sinemanchin to agree to eliminate filibuster on debt limit by warning of consequences if they don't. If they won't do that, use reconciliation. 3/
OK, the important stuff: I watched the 1st two episodes of Foundation, and ... I'm not sure yet. The show is gorgeous and fun to watch — which may be all that matters. But is it *Foundation*? 1/
FYI: Foundation had a huge influence on my young self. Mathematical social scientists saving civilization? Hey, I got as close as I could. But the novels are aggressively uncinematic 2/
It's not just that there's very little shoot-em-up action, that it's basically guys talking to each other. The whole thrust of the first book and a half is that math rules, and heroes are irrelevant 3/