For reference: I'm revisiting the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act, which was supposed to induce corporations to bring back the money they had invested overseas. For a few quarters it looked as if something was happening: 1/
On paper, overseas subsidiaries of U.S. corporations were disinvesting and sending funds back to their parent companies via dividends. But there was no real investment surge here 2/
What was really happening was almost surely just a rejiggering of the accounting. A large part of reported US investment abroad is just an accounting fiction, resulting from profit-shifting into tax havens 3/
A cut in the US tax rate induced corporations to unwind a bit of that profit-shifting, causing a brief dip in reported investment abroad and a brief surge in repatriated profits. 4/
But basically nothing real happened. It was all accounting fictions 5/

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @paulkrugman

19 Oct
Scott Sumner has an interesting thread about his recent paper on the "Princeton school" of macroeconomics, which includes among others yours truly and a guy named Bernanke (what ever happened to him?) 1/
I mean, I have to like this thread and the paper ... 2/
Indeed, I think that 98 paper may be the best thing I've done. And it offers an occasion to maunder on a bit about doing economics 3/
Read 10 tweets
18 Oct
A bit more on fossil fuels and West Virginia. The thing that always strikes me is that the state stopped being a coal-fueled economy a *long* time ago. Here's the share of coal mining in total compensation (a better measure than share of GDP, as I'll explain) 1/
Joe Manchin began his political career in the state legislature in 1982; at that point coal was responsible for 16 percent of payrolls. But it plunged in the years that followed, thanks to strip-mined coal in Wyoming and automation 2/
So King Coal had been dethroned a generation ago. It's fallen even further since, but the big decline is far in the past 3/
Read 6 tweets
17 Oct
As always, Adam Tooze's latest, this time on coal and the West Virginia economy, is interesting and thought-provoking. But also, unusually, a bit credulous 1/ adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-46…
Tooze's numbers rely a lot on a study I cited for direct coal employment; but a lot of the rest of that study is, well, dubious 2/ wvcoal.com/news-2/latest-…
First of all, the study counts coal-fired electricity generation as part of the coal industry. But think about it: if we phased out coal, WV would still be generating power, just from other energy sources. Including this sector indicates an attempt to inflate the numbers 3/
Read 7 tweets
11 Oct
A few thoughts on today's economics Nobel, which was of course richly deserved (and it's truly tragic that Alan Krueger isn't able to share in it, as he surely would have) 1/ nobelprize.org/prizes/economi…
This was a prize more for methods than for conclusions; the laureates were leaders in the "credibility revolution" in economics, the exploitation of natural experiments to sort out causation and the effects of policy 2/
Since the prize was about methodology — not even about the facts as much as about how to determine those facts — you might think it wouldn't be relevant to current policy debates. However ... 3/
Read 13 tweets
5 Oct
Some idle speculation on platinum coins, 14th amendment, and all that. First of all, using any of these gimmicks would send the signal that we're a troubled country — but of course we are a troubled country, so that's not a deal-killer 1/
Nonetheless, the Biden admin would like to avoid using a gimmicky solution. First best is to shame Rs (and get business pressure to back up the shame) into acting responsibly. 2/
Barring that, which seems unlikely, get Sinemanchin to agree to eliminate filibuster on debt limit by warning of consequences if they don't. If they won't do that, use reconciliation. 3/
Read 5 tweets
26 Sep
OK, the important stuff: I watched the 1st two episodes of Foundation, and ... I'm not sure yet. The show is gorgeous and fun to watch — which may be all that matters. But is it *Foundation*? 1/
FYI: Foundation had a huge influence on my young self. Mathematical social scientists saving civilization? Hey, I got as close as I could. But the novels are aggressively uncinematic 2/
It's not just that there's very little shoot-em-up action, that it's basically guys talking to each other. The whole thrust of the first book and a half is that math rules, and heroes are irrelevant 3/
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(