There are movies where the powerful are good (Superman), where the powerful are bad (Erin Brockovich), and where the weak are good (Revenge of the Nerds), but relatively few where the weak are bad (Ephialtes in 300?).
Thinking about this in the context of Changjin.

The instant cue you have for who the good guys & bad guys are is their relative power levels.

The Chinese are portrayed as scrappy, fighting only in self defense, eating frozen potatoes.

The Americans as powerful, rich, and mean.
It is possible for an underdog to win. They just have a low probability of winning.

But it’s not really possible for the truly weak to win against the powerful. If they win they must have had more power.
Interesting to combine this with “winners write history”.

Winners write history…to portray themselves as the weak underdogs, the almost losers, who just barely toppled the empire?

Though I suppose that actually was true in many circumstances: victory was not assured.
Related concept: initial condition vs observable action. If you see someone who burns money on foolish things, and becomes poor via observable actions — less sympathy. But if their initial condition was poor through no fault of their own — more sympathy. tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.…

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More from @balajis

21 Oct
The ledger of record gives us an auditable information supply chain.

“election results, sports outcomes…quarterly financials…all of that will now be cryptographically signed to verify the data comes from the Associated Press”
decrypt.co/83867/associat…
See my talk from August on the ledger of record.
Here’s a summary of my talk on the ledger of record. Briefly, it’s a way to develop a cryptographically auditable information supply chain. chainlinktoday.com/balaji-sriniva…
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
Just saw The Battle at Lake Changjin. Through-the-looking-glass experience, where the good guys are the plucky underdog Chinese and the bad guys are the powerful Americans.

It’s the #1 movie in the world, and seemingly meant to prepare for conflict.
They want to fight because they think they’ll win.

“Combat was formerly seen as a threat to the Party’s hold on power. China’s military was not in a position to win…Now it is perceived as a way to strengthen the CCP’s position.” thediplomat.com/2021/10/the-ba…
China has truly shifted from peaceful internationalist capitalism under Deng/Jiang/Hu to militarist nationalist socialism under Xi.

Their head is just in a completely different place from the US. Totally asymmetric matchup in terms of civilizational will.
Read 14 tweets
20 Oct
A theory, not strongly held.

India's advantage vs China on web3 may be that it won't ban it. Its advantage vs the US may be that it doesn't have legacy web2 incumbents. And its advantage vs both may be that it has many who are both willing *and* able to emigrate anywhere.
That is, Indians don't have an investment in the web2 past, don't have a ban on the web3 future, aren't restricted from emigrating like the Chinese, and have more of a willingness to emigrate than the Americans.

Could be a recipe to do well.
Why is the ability to emigrate so important? Crypto challenges many premises. It's going to lead not just to new currencies, but to new cities and even new countries. You can't do all of this in India itself. But you can probably do it somewhere abroad.
Read 11 tweets
19 Oct
Tensegrity is an excellent visual metaphor. Each point on the globe has both tension and attraction to other points. When that balance of forces changes, the order falls apart.
This is how I thought about the collapse of SF. Rubber band tension between two forces, till one of them suddenly went to zero. Tensegrity is an excellent visual generalization of this concept, to multiple forces and multiple points simultaneously.
This was my mental model for what would happen after SF falls, as well, even before the pandemic. Startup cities would rise — like Miami, but also like Prospera and Culdesac.
Read 5 tweets
19 Oct
Long answer, many factors.

It’s not a simple fee-for-service cash transaction between the buyer and seller, where the doctor/seller sets (and knows) the price.

Instead it’s third party payment, fourth party pricing, fifth party regulation.

AMA + CPT + RVU + CPOM + FDA = DMV
I should probably write an essay on this but it’s very difficult to fix the US system from within.

The recent emergency legalization of telemedicine may be the key — build a parallel system abroad, with medical tourism referrals to places like Bumrungrad. bumrungrad.com/en/about-us/bu…
Why have prices gone up so much?

- MDs don’t set or know prices
- CPOM deters hospital startups
- Few pay listed cash price
- Insurance means uncertain payment for vendors and patients alike
- AI automated diagnosis is regulated
- Telemedicine was until recently also inhibited
Read 7 tweets
19 Oct
Yes. Though both are accelerating.

Not inflating $1T this decade, more like $10T.
Not automating servers this decade, more like everything.

Inflation partially drives automation, by funding disruption. And automation partially drives inflation, via demand for redistribution.
The feedback loop goes like this:

Print more money
Some goes to investors, who fund automation
Some goes to workers, who resign
Labor is scarce, tech is abundant
Employers digitize more, automate more
Less need for old forms of labor
Demand for redistribution
Print more money
This feedback loop causes us to eventually exit the 20th century economy towards robotics, but in an extremely messy way.

If we can make it to the other side, because automation deflates prices, many more will be able to live off dividends from investing.
Read 4 tweets

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