A thread: What is China’s energy import/export makeup? Have they historically been net importers? Starting in 2000s, as the economy grows, China becomes less energy dependent. 1/5
Coal dominates as the 2/3 source of energy supply in China. 2/5
The most dramatic domestic production/import mix change over time for China crude. 3/5
For total energy supply, both domestic and imports increased. China obviously likes to have some self-reliance, but it exports a lot, and imports a lot. It needs the world in many areas. The narrative of complete self-reliance is just narrative. 4/5
When push comes to shuffle, Coal imports <10% of Coal supply, is one energy resource China has most control, in production and domestic coal futures trading. Last few days it restricted financial speculation in onshore coal futures market which lead to coal price decline. 5/5
China becomes less energy independent over time, in 2019 with 1/4 energy supply imported. @Twitter when will you allow a word edit in a tweet?
🧵I agree w. the poll and think that US & China are likely to reach a deal by year end.
By not yielding, China showed its leverage. US's original plan of everyone just shut up and pay is not feasible. Both sides now are feeling the pain. /1
🧵The Communique, the press conference, the Decision, "the Trinity" 😀 (決定裏有12個探索值得一看)
Overall just released "Decision" follows similar points, no big and bold initiatives, but 12 "explores" that's positive and explained below. 1/ politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0721/c…
First Explore: Explore setting up personal bankruptcy system. (探索建立个人破产制度)
Probably a surprise to outsiders that China actually didn't have an easy personal bankruptcy system. So if one has a mortgage underwater, no easy way out. 2/
Second explore: Gradually increase mandatory/free educ from 9 years and beyond. (探索逐步扩大免费教育范围)
Background: ~45% Chinese students don't get to go to high school by standardized test and ended up vocational school or becoming a low skill worker.
/3
China's domestic think tanks are mostly defining the current high unemployment of youth (~18%) as structural (结构性失业), showing charts the new labor supply mostly come from those w. higher education /1
New labor supply coming from education, public management, manufacturing, health and social work. (图3 中国新增劳动力结构变化情况(单位:%)
It's suggesting China to deregulate service sector like education, entertainment to increase employment. cssn.cn/jjx/202304/t20…