Liqian Ren Profile picture
Oct 22, 2021 7 tweets 5 min read Read on X
A thread: What is China’s energy import/export makeup? Have they historically been net importers? Starting in 2000s, as the economy grows, China becomes less energy dependent. 1/5
Coal dominates as the 2/3 source of energy supply in China. 2/5
The most dramatic domestic production/import mix change over time for China crude. 3/5
For total energy supply, both domestic and imports increased. China obviously likes to have some self-reliance, but it exports a lot, and imports a lot. It needs the world in many areas. The narrative of complete self-reliance is just narrative. 4/5
When push comes to shuffle, Coal imports <10% of Coal supply, is one energy resource China has most control, in production and domestic coal futures trading. Last few days it restricted financial speculation in onshore coal futures market which lead to coal price decline. 5/5
China becomes less energy independent over time, in 2019 with 1/4 energy supply imported. @Twitter when will you allow a word edit in a tweet?

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More from @liqian_ren

Oct 12
Live Press Conference Link "Strengthen countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promote high-quality economic development"

Min. of Finance Minister Lan and 3 heads of departments (General, Budget, Treasury 綜合司,預算司,國庫司) will do Q/A
live.baidu.com/m/media/pclive…
Ideally the press conference set expectation and deliver expectation, with slightly positive side.

The Minister of Finance worked from bottom to the top so professional ability is high.

(最好的結果是不要太超預期。

政策太好和太壞對中國這種散戶居多的市場都沒有好處。市場預期之内,稍稍好,讓大家忘記發改委的表現,就夠了。)baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%93%9D…
This article (in Chinese but google translate good enough) reviewed minister Lan’s career path.

Moved up from the lowest level since college within the ministry. The kind who has high professionalism and loyalty to move up.

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OIXYrXskI7EX…Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 4
I got asked several similar questions all the time. Might just answer it here.

Q: Does the Party care about the economy?

A: The Party cares about stability and staying in power. If economy helps it stay in power, then it’s important. 1/7 Image
For example, this case of a 37 year old migrant worker randomly attacked 18 people in Shanghai and killed three.

(From social media, unverified )He was owed money and tried to get his wages.

When he was at the ends of his means he had sold his cellphone and killed randomly.
Coupled this with several recent crimes where main criminals are unemployed, the Party also has urgency to do something.

But that doesn’t mean the economy is the priority. Economy is a tool for the Party.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 21
🧵The Communique, the press conference, the Decision, "the Trinity" 😀 (決定裏有12個探索值得一看)

Overall just released "Decision" follows similar points, no big and bold initiatives, but 12 "explores" that's positive and explained below.
1/
politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0721/c…
Image
First Explore: Explore setting up personal bankruptcy system. (探索建立个人破产制度)

Probably a surprise to outsiders that China actually didn't have an easy personal bankruptcy system. So if one has a mortgage underwater, no easy way out. 2/
Second explore: Gradually increase mandatory/free educ from 9 years and beyond. (探索逐步扩大免费教育范围)
Background: ~45% Chinese students don't get to go to high school by standardized test and ended up vocational school or becoming a low skill worker.
/3
Read 15 tweets
May 5, 2023
Govt ignoring economic advice 🧵

China's domestic think tanks are mostly defining the current high unemployment of youth (~18%) as structural (结构性失业), showing charts the new labor supply mostly come from those w. higher education /1 Image
New labor supply coming from education, public management, manufacturing, health and social work. (图3 中国新增劳动力结构变化情况(单位:%) Image
It's suggesting China to deregulate service sector like education, entertainment to increase employment. cssn.cn/jjx/202304/t20… Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 23, 2023
Those who love Wuxia writer Jim Yong and live close to Hangzhou, the library he donated to Jiaxing (close to Hangzhou) faces demolition.

If you are interested, might worth a weekend visit before torn down.(位于嘉兴的金庸图书馆,即将面临被推平、拆除。)

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_pZNmZGjD4MX… Image
Friend 六神 wrote that article trying to convince authorities whether there’s any possibility to reverse the demolition orders. ImageImage
Now the Jiaxing city said it won’t demote the@library any more and said it has always wanted to preserve it.

Then it acknowledged the social media uproar against demolition is a factor😂 Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 22, 2023
Local govt Changshu will start paying digital Yuan for all civil servants, a few other city government paying partial wage in digital currency. Image
Digital Yuan will become more widespread domestically and likely other close countries but it has little to do with separate efforts to allow more Yuan adoption in trade settlement.

I was told in many Thailand or Vietnam one can currently pay directly in Yuan for many services.
As long as PBOC continues cracking down on companies that don't accept paper cash as a form of payment, which it does continuously so far, digital Yuan is just another form of Yuan currency. Image
Read 4 tweets

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