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Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

20 Oct

1/ "You sometimes hear an entrepreneur say: ‘Oh, we’ll just make it viral.’ As if virality is something you can choose to add in after the product is baked – like a spell checker. If virality was easy, there would be no advertising industry.” Josh Kopelman.

2/ "Virality is something that has to be engineered from the beginning…and it’s harder to create virality than it is to create a good product. That’s why we often see good products with poor virality, and poor products with good virality." Josh Kopelman.

3/ "Most viral acquisition is built around incentives. Users are incentivized either explicitly (with a clear dangling carrot) or implicitly (through product mechanics) to invite other users.” Sangeet Paul Choudary.

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Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

20 Oct

1/ Question: What can you develop by looking at a lot of financial statements for different companies?

Why does Tren often ask on Twitter:

What company is this?

Answer: Pattern recognition can be developed using an outside view via base rates. research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…

2/ Using the outside view requires finding and applying an appropriate reference class, or base rate. The more businesses you learn about, the more you improve your probability distribution of outcomes.

Goal: Find a gap between what is priced into a stock and likely reality.

3/ Example: Assume SaaS company X reveals only partial data about unit economics. X provides no data to investors on churn or CAC. An investor with the right reference class (data about similar businesses) will be more able to spot a mis-priced opportunity. Pattern recognition!

Read 6 tweets

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

20 Oct

1/ "An orbital bombardment system is essentially "a space shuttle, with a nuclear weapon into the cargo bay, and no landing gear."

It isn't new. The ways to defend against it must be new. But fully defending against it isn't realistic for any nation.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/18/hyp…

2/ Existing existing missile defense systems can’t stop all incoming missiles with nuclear payloads possessed by China, Russia or the US even now.

Low earth orbit satellites with sensors in polar orbit are the new early warning systems for a: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractiona…

3. "Will you be disappointed if the nuclear missiles don’t come from the North Pole, like Santa? The US with more than a thousand nuclear weapons, will avenge your family either way. However, it’s crazy to base U.S. security on the threat of mutual annihilation forever."

Read 4 tweets

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

19 Oct

1/ Simba: "Why isn't the 'sit on you ass' investing style not more popular?"

Mufasa: "Because it is hard for anyone to earn management fees on a portfolio of less then ten stocks that rarely changes. As I said before, if you show me the incentives, I will show you the outcome.

2/ Simba: "Is sit on your ass investing the only way to invest successfully?

Mufasa: "No. My standard prescription for the know-nothing investor with a long-term time horizon is a low fee index fund. Less than 10% of stock market investors can beat an index after fees."

3/ Simba: "Index fund investors seem to have more free time to do things like going on hikes and playing golf."

Mufasa: "Of course they do. But they are not earning investment management fees while they are playing golf, like active managers that closet index their portfolios.

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Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

18 Oct

1/ Trillions is a new book by Robin Wigglesworth. The book's core is a lively telling of the creation story of index funds. The author skillfully uses the contributions of colorful individuals to inform the reader about the investing system's origins. amazon.com/Trillions-Rene…

2/ Wigglesworth’s narrative describes the contributions of the people and organizations who invented, developed and promoted the index fund phenomenon. I found the book's discussion of the motivations and contributions of John Bogle and Vanguard insightful and interesting.

3/ After I read a review copy of a book I inevitably ask myself whether I would have purchased the book. In the case of Zillions, my answer is definitely yes. If you are unsure about this, I encourage you to listen to Wigglesworth describe his book in a podcast. It is worthwhile.

Read 8 tweets

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

17 Oct

1/ A highly maneuverable weapons delivery system (i.e., a missile) moving at hypersonic speed from a polar low earth orbit can be countered by a global system of thousands of sensors also operating a low earth orbit that can direct anti-missile systems. google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.c…

2/ The assertion by FT that hypersonic weapons development is something that US and other nations have not been aware of isn't remotely credible. The people who actually do understand hypersonic weapons can't talk about them, because that is the nature of a security clearance.

3/ That a person is being quoted in a well-known publication doesn't mean they understand what they are talking about. This story about hypersonic weapons is just one example. By thinking independently you have an opportunity to avoid the Murray Gell-Mann amnesia effect.

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