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Raoul Pal

25 Oct, 18 tweets, 4 min read

So, you are mad at the Fed for inflation?

They should raise rates? Get back to something more reasonable according to past history, right?

But debts are too high vs GDP and higher rates will kill EVERYTHING... 1/

And this is why the Chart of Truth works...yields peak out at lower and lower levels...due to debt.

But Im a saver and nearing retirement and I want my yield! Tough shit. You aren't getting it. You simply cant. Im sorry. Its all your faults for taking on too much debt. If you didn't, then it's everyone else's fault.

The Fed didn't create this, demographics did.

But inflation is high!! Yes, but it is driven by supply issues. Raise rates on that and you get high prices due to supply constraints and you get a consumer that is killed. You can see this by the fear in the UM Consumer Indices...

With a fiscal cliff coming... a drag of 3.5% of GDP next year

Central Bank balance sheets slowing...

Credit impulse slowing..

Labor force Participation rate net offsetting any wage rises...

And commodity prices hitting margins and consumption..

And the data slowing globally...

Then the odds are that things slow down fast. Even if supply shortages keep prices high, growth will slow.

So, what can the Fed do? Taper and see. And that will slow things further.

But with a weekly DeMark 9 at the top of the wedge...

And a monthly in place...(perfect signal since 1980)...

I don't see a quality bet on rate rises.
I see the quality bet on rates falling.

If you did get your "The Fed are bastards for creating inflation - raise rates now!", you will just destroy the economy. That ship sailed in 1997. too late lamenting over past times.

I don't have the bond bet on meaningful because I see crypto right now as a win/win. If inflation = win, if economy slows and Fed print = win.

Later, there will be Goldilocks for a bit and crypt0 will underperform but it's too early for that.

If I am wrong and bonds go up, the Fed will impose Yield Curve Control (see Japan, EU (sort of) and Aus for details, which bizarrely is a form of money printing into an inflation cycle. Crypto wins.

To my mind, monetary condition are tightening too as the dollar slowly rises.

2022 is going to be a very different year and my bet is more QE and fiscal into an economic slowdown.

Shout inflation all you want. But see the demand side too. It ain't pretty.

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

23 Oct

I've a big obsession about music. It's friday night and its time to give a thread about songs that shouldn't have been written. Things that are musically odd but are pure magic. Original masterpieces.

This is not exhaustive but songs I just shake my head and ask how?

This is the story of creative genius and songs that are near impossible to write as they follow no normal structure. This is something I admire MASSIVELY. Song that I don't understand how someone thought of them because they are so damned unique.

Starting back in 1959 is Miles Davis Kind of Blue - an entire masterpiece album . The album is top 3 of all time The tempo was creatively bravely neither fast nor slow. It didn't fit in. It was all wrong but so right...

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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

22 Oct

So many people get emotional about $ARKK, same way they do about BTC or $TSLA. I think they are positioned for the Exponential Age and the chart are looks like a consolidation to me.

Most people would suggest that in an inflation trend, hyper long duration growth doesn't work. But the bond market suggests that inflation is not the problem. The monthly DeMark in yields has worked 100% of the time. sometimes there is a re-test.

The weekly is in place too...

Read 5 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

21 Oct

@MI2Partners

Just a few small excerpts from todays Real Vision Pro (like a cut down Global Macro Investor created with my partner @JulianMI2of @MI2Partners - different perspectives add huge value, just ask our members).

BTC continues to follow 2013 very well.

I think there is a decent chance (not a certainty) that this BTC cycle extends longer in time and higher in price...

Here is the chart using the uptrend from 2015 low... same outcome.

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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

16 Oct

Final thought for a Friday night:

You can be angry at central banks, government, debt, demographics or politics and how it affects us all or you can be optimistic and migrate to the new world of digital assets. The choice is yours.

If it’s of any help to those that feel like they don’t trust this new world, I am blessed to have as friends many of the worlds most famous and successful investors and a huge percentage have moved to a hybrid of traditional strategies plus Exponential Age tech plus crypto.

You can bet with them or you can write them off as fools. But do you want to get against; Soros, Tiger, Moore Capital, Tudor, Brevan Howard, Balyasni, Etc. They are all involved as are many more from the Gov of Singapore to Abu Dhabi.

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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

16 Oct

If you don’t see by now that the tokenization of everything is the biggest thing we have ever seen and will ever see, I cant help you as much. It dwarfs all other opportunities for risk reward over time. Web 3.0 is something few yet understand but will change business forever. 1/

I’m working on getting RV into that world over time. So much cool shit in our plans!

But I’m working on setting up some other projects too.

Hedge funds in crypto produce amazing alpha but are capital starved. I’m going to solve that with a crypto fund of funds.

Sadly that is currently only for HNW and institutions as laws make it hard for normal people.

That launches very soon and solves some big issues for crypto hedge funds, family offices, investors and institutions.

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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

3 Oct

Things are happening so fast, and with such quantum leaps in NFT world, that I am struggling to get to grips with it, let alone all of the projects and breakthroughs.

1/

I totally get it at a relatively superficial conceptual level but the cultural depths and societal implications are something Im trying to catch up with but I know its bigger than Im imagining.

The issue for me is that is all feels like a closed group of those in the know

And the rest of us feel like we have our nose pressed up again the windows, looking it at everyone having a great time.

If you are not on Discord, and in the "in" crowd you literally have no idea how to approach this. Im not on Discord.

Read 10 tweets

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