Thread by @redistrictAZ

Countdown to #FairDistricts for All of #Arizona: 59!
With just a bit of time before the @ArizonaIRC makes changes, here are the top takes and a district-by-district summary: 1) #PoorPinal County looks like road kill. It is divided into five districts and

its communities are connected with neighboring MarCo & Pima counties, but also Yuma and Sedona; and as far north as Coconino Co. Adding insult to injury, two of the splits are to accommodate changes integrated into the plan from the @SALCLeaders to achieve their very grand plan

for a S AZ "economic driver." Clearly, they did not consider Pinal Co. As a partner in that plan.

2) The very, very, very worst district is LD 7. This district is just a mess. Not even pictures of cats could fix this. And it creates messes all over the place.

And it is caused in great measure because Commissioner Mehl doesn't want to hear about a district that runs along the eastern border N to S as the current district does. Really hard to understand why he thinks this is better .. Oh wait - there might be a reason...

3)There is 1-Am. Indian VRA district -BUT as it includes Flagstaff it is quite likely to deliver Flagstaff-based reps to the state capitol. THIS would be a really GOOD time for the Navajo Nation and the 21 other federally recognized tribes to submit their vision for unity.

4) There are 6 - Latino VRA districts - one less that what currently exists. And given the increase in Latino population in the last decade it is hard to understand how this will sustain legal challenge. And 100% certain if these districts stand IT WILL BE challenged.

This will be the lawsuit Chair Neuberg does not want. And if any of the lawyers in the room tell her different: get a second opinion. Don't have to goto law school to KNOW this.

5) My apologies to all Tucsonans - no ego - edit away and add detail and context to the districts in the comments. I really do not know the lay of the land - but am a quick study. Same is true for all the districts really. AND remember, we will get to do this again. Real soon.

6) Greenlee, La Paz, Santa Cruz, and Yavapai are the only counties that remain intact. Mohave is split once to include the Am. Indian populations in Mohave into LD 6. Similarly, for Yuma; the county split is to help meet VRA objectives & to honor COI testimony from the district.

7) The one district that looks most like consistent COI testimony is LD 30 - it is a rural, Colorado River district. Just like the folks from Mohave to Yuma and points in between asked for.

8) Partisan splits - 12 safe Democratic districts; 4 toss-up districts; 3 lean Republican districts; and, 11 safe R publican districts.

LD 1 in Maricopa Co.
This district runs N/S along both sides of Hwy51 from I-10 in the south north to Shea roughly; stays east of I-17. It has a 35.7% vote spread. Safe Democrat.

LD2 in Maricopa Co.
This district hugs I-17 south of the 101 between 35 Ave on the west and Cave Creek Rd on the east. Includes Moon Valley neighborhood. 0.4% spread. Toss-up.

LD 3 in MarCo
This dist. includes Cave Creek & Carefree; hugs the MarCo borders between Yavapai north; Gila Co east; and Pinal Co south. Includes Fountain Hills and Ft. McDowell Yavapai Nation. Vote Spread is 20.4%. Safe Republican.

LD 4 -MarCo
LD 4 is a N/S district roughly between Hwy 51 and the 101 loop. It includes Scottsdale and Paradise Valley in the south; and goes north of Bell Rd. Looks like Frank Lloyd Wright Blvd is the northern border. It has a 1.8% vote spread. Toss-up.

LD5 - This district takes in all of Yavapai disrespecting mountains of COI testimony asking that the county be split roughly N/S using Mingus Mountain as a logical break between Prescott, P Valley, Chino Valley etc.

and connecting Sedona, Cottonwood, and Verde Valley with Flagstaff. It takes a small bit of Maricopa County at I-17 - almost certainly for pop. balance. Spread is 28.5%. Safe Republican.

LD6 - This district combines the Navajo Nation, Hopi, Kaibab, Havasupai, Hualapai Am. Indian communities in the north w/ Fort Apache and San Carlos Am. Indian communities in the south. It includes the city of Flagstaff.

The district splits the following seven counties: Apache, Navajo, Mohave, Coconino, Gila, Graham and Pinal Counties. Vote spread is 42.4%. Safe Democrat
NOTE: Although this is a safe Dem seat, the inclusion of all of Flagstaff means representation

will almost certainly come from the urban area; not the Indian communities. I believe this is a problem especially since the Navajo Nation has clearly articulated alternative preferences. Just saying.

LD7 - (My Favorite) This district takes the remainders from LD 6 in Coconino, Navajo, Apache, Gila, and Pinal counties to combine Williams and Sedona in Coconino County with Florence and Superior in Pinal County. Vote spread is 30.3%. Safe Republican.

LD8 - This Maricopa County district unites the Gila Rive IC with Tempe. Vote spread is 28.4%. Safe Democrat.

LD9 in MarCo combines Mesa and Gilbert. It uses the 101 as its west border up to the 202 loop, and Gilbert Rd as its east boundary. The district goes south past US 60 south of Guadalupe Rd. Mesa and Gilbert East of 101 Vote spread is 6.9 %. Safe Democrat

LD 10 in MarCo sits just east of LD 9 mostly inside 202 North of US 60, South of Salt River IC between Lindsay on the west and Power to the east. Vote spread is 21.3% Safe Republican.

LD 11 - In central Phx- sits just north of S. Mountain and goes north toVan Buren & Jefferson/Washington. It spread E/W from 51st Ave. and maybe 32nd St. - roughly... It is one of only six Latino-VRA districts in this plan. Vote spread 54.2%. Safe Democrat.

LD 12in MarCo sits SE of South Mountain. The district crossroads are 2020 and I-10 and includes the Maricopa County portion of the Gila River IC. The spread is 9.7%. Safe Democrat.

LD 13 in MarCo district is bordered by Pinal County on the south and includes Chandler and Queen Creek. Vote spread is 4.4%. Toss-up

LD 14 - This Maricopa Co district takes in Queen Creek, ASU Polytechnic Campus and sits north and west of the Pinal County Border. Vote spread is 24.5% Safe Republican.

LD 15 bridges Maricopa and Pinal Counties at the border north of Queen Creek and then wraps south of Queen Creek to include San Tan Valley in Pinal County. Vote spread is 26.3%. Safe Republican.

LD 16 - This district includes portions of Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima Counties. It keeps the Gila River and Ak-Chin IC together. Casa Grande and Eloy are included but picks up a section of Pima County west of I-10; it bypasses Marana and Oro Valley.

Vote spread is 4.6% which puts it in the competitive range; but it doesn’t flip in any of the nine measured elections. Lean Republican.

LD 17 - This district is comprised of the SE corner of Pinal and eastern Pima County and takes in both Oro Valley and Marana. Point spread is 8.9%. Leans Republican in 8 of 9 measured elections.

LD 18 - This "Golden Peanut" district nestles into the Catalina Foothills and is of note because this is where Commissioner Mehl lives. Tucson city proper is south; Oro Valley and Marana are in the district north. Vote spread is 17.1%. Safe Democrat

LD 19 - Greenlee and Cochise Counties are kept whole in this district and connected to southern Graham County and part of Pima County south of US 191 and west of I-19; excluding Sahuarita. Vote spread is 18.1%. Safe Republican.

LD 20 - This district and LD18 to its north are the only LDs comprised of areas only in Pima County. Most of the district is west of I-19. It does not touch Tucson city proper. It is one of only six Latino-VRA districts in this plan. Vote spread is 52.3%. Safe Democrat.

LD 21 - This district includes all of Santa Cruz County and a ribbon of Pima County to include Sahuarita and Tucson. This is one of the six Latino-VRA districts in this plan. Vote spread is 31.7%. Safe Democratic district.

LD 22 - This is a west valley/ Maricopa County district including Buckeye, Avondale, and Goodyear as well as rural Maricopa County north of I-8 and south of US 60. It is one of the six Latino-VRA districts in this plan. Vote spread is 17.6%. It is a safe Democratic district.

LD 23 - This is one of three southern border districts running west from the Tohono O'Odham Nation to Yuma. This too is one of the six Latino-VRA districts in this plan. Vote spread 5.4%. By vote spread and election behavior it is a Toss-up/ swing district.

LD 24 - This district is possibly one of the most compact districts on the map. It starts roughly at the I-17 and Grand Ave/US 60 intersection and heads west just past 99th Ave. between McDowell and Camelback. This is one of the six Latino-VRA districts in this plan.

Vote spread 53.9%. It is a safe democratic seat.

LD 25 - This district stays within Maricopa County and includes Litchfield Park; excludes Luke Air Force Base and goes west to include White Tank Mountain Regional Park. The vote spread is 8.0% and leans Republican in 8/9 measured elections.

LD 26 - Another compact Maricopa County district in Glendale bordered by I-17, Missouri Ave., 83rd Ave. and Olive. The vote spread is 28% and it is a safe Democratic district.

LD 27 - This is a NW valley solidly suburban area from Olive to Happy Valley between 47th Ave and 91st. Vote spread is 13.9% and will be a safe Republican district.

LD 28 - This northern Maricopa County district runs from the I--17 along the northern county border w. Yavapai to the border with La Paz County. It includes Wickenburg. The vote spread is 30.1% and it will be a very safe Republican district.

LD 29 - The center of this Maricopa Co. district is the intersection of Grand Ave and Bell Road. It includes Surprise, El Mirage, and Youngtown. It splits the Sun Cities. The vote spread is 17.2% and is safely Republican.

LD 30 - This is the Colorado River district. This matches the CO testimony to create a rural Colorado River district in each plan. This takes in the remainder of the population from Mohave and Yuma Counties and all La Paz Co. Vote spread is 48.5% and will be reliably Republican.