As COP-26 is upon us, it is useful to reiterate the key issue the world faces. The REMAINING CARBON BUDGET for 1.5 deg. C and even for a reasonable chance of 2 deg. C, is severely limited. The reason for this is high HISTORICAL and CONTINUING EMISSIONS in rich countries. Image
2/n ~1.07 deg. C warming that the world is already experiencing is a result of past emissions which are disproportionately from rich countries. Even since 1990 (post UNFCCC), these countries have continued to occupy disproportionately higher carbon space. ImageImage
3/n After glossing over their inaction by diverting attention to what poorer countries should do, developed countries are now asking that we pat them on the back for declaring net-zero targets 30 years into the future. Action that was needed from them, yesterday. Image
4/n Rich countries are being helped in this charade by a multitude of first world agencies. Despite historical inaction, they are let off the hook because of intended action in the future. Developing countries are asked to do more. This, it is claimed, is an "opportunity".
5/n The argument is this: Investments in green technology (and a ban on investments in fossil fuels) in the third world, will help the third world, as it will prevent climate change and reduce impacts that are disproportionately faced by the Global South. And this is not all…
6/n Investors in rich countries will benefit from the profits that unexplored markets in the third world offer - Win-win! So essentially, the poor pay the rich for mitigating a problem caused by the rich and rejoice in the hope that this saves them from that same problem.
7/n If this is such an "opportunity", why has so little changed in the last 3 decades in the richest economies? Why are fossil fuel phase out plans so far into the future? How much of the remaining carbon budget are the rich countries going to consume till they reach net-zero?
8/n Their enhanced NDCs and net-zero declarations imply that US-UK-EU will occupy 31% of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 deg. C (50% probability). China will occupy 89% of the budget. Yes, that adds up to 120%. Is 1.5 deg. Still Alive?
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More from @KanitkarT

7 Jun
India's Vaccine Inequity - A Thread
On vaccination, the GoI has had to repeatedly eat crow. This is just another instance, despite the implied state-blaming in today's speech. The GoI must also withdraw the reservation of 25% doses for the private sector that is still in place
1/n Till 31 May 2021, India had covered only 12% of its population with at least one dose. Even by its own classification of vulnerability, only 43% of the 60+ age group had been partially vaccinated. Most of them in urban areas
2/n Of the 45-60 age group, only 25% have been given at least one dose. This is only 4% for the 18-44 age cohort. The variation across states persists. UP, BR, AS, and TN have covered less than 10% of their eligible populations. See figure for state-wise coverage till 31 May.
Read 14 tweets
12 May
THREAD ON THE ELUSIVE SECOND DOSE
1/n In the months of May and June, India will need to administer at least 125 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines as SECOND DOSES alone. If vaccine supplies are not augmented, many risk missing their second dose.
2/n As of 30th April, about 152 million vaccine doses had been administered, of which 82% were first doses. So from 1 May onwards, at least 125 million doses had to be reserved as second doses, to be administered in the months of May and June assuming a 8-9 week gap between doses
3/n Contrast this with the production capacity - According to the GoI's sworn affidavit to the Supreme Court, SII has a capacity to produce of 65 million doses/month. BBIL's capacity is 10 million doses/month.
Read 12 tweets
21 Apr
Thread On the Supply-Need Vaccination Gap: At the current rate of vaccination, this will happen only by November 2022. If India wishes to cover 60 to 100% of its eligible population by December 2021, the current gap between need and supply is about 70 to 170 million doses/month
1/n: 69% of India’s population is above 18 years of age in 2021, i.e. technically eligible for the COVID-19 Gap (as per estimates of the MoHFW). This varies between 60% in Bihar to 76% in Tamil Nadu.
2/n: To cover 100% of the eligible population India will need a total of 1878 million doses of the vaccine, assuming each person requires two doses. To cover 80% and 60% of the eligible population, this requirement reduces to 1502 million doses and 1127 million doses respectively
Read 19 tweets
9 May 20
Thread: What does "learning to live with COVID-19 mean? What percentages hide.
1/The "herd immunity" (not through vaccination) argument is making a comeback as people either get tired of the lock down or think HI the only way to save the economy.
2/Some may be genuinely worried about people dying of hunger because of the lock-down. But to argue for herd immunity so people don't die of hunger, is akin to cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. Here are some numbers that illustrate why:
3/It isn't yet clear whether immunity to COVID-19 is achieved after being infected, or the degree of that immunity, or it's longevity. But let us put that aside for now. For HI to kick in 60-70% of the population will have to be infected (could be higher also).
Read 12 tweets
6 Apr 20
Thread:
Those who are scoffing that "nothing went wrong with the grid yesterday" should be enormously thankful instead of smug. The POSOCO report on the PM's event yesterday evening shows quite clearly what an "unprecedented challenge" it was (their words not mine).
POSOCO had advised all regions to ensure that the black start units were in good condition. If that does not signal how worried they were, I don't know what will.
posoco.in/wp-content/upl…
The entire system through which supply is dispatched had to be modified.Generators with fast ramping capacities, i.e. hydro units, had to be used at full capacity at that time so their use at times otherwise advised (typically to manage peaks) was curtailed.
Read 5 tweets
3 Apr 20
According to the Saubhagya dashboard there are 21.3 crore households in India of which only 18,734 households are un-electrified. Which means 21.29 crore households use and pay for electricity. Assuming that 50% of all electrified households participate in the PM's call
Assuming 2 LED bulbs (to be conservative) will be shut for 9 mins in each households for this. Assuming average cost of energy to be Rs.2/kWh since many households using electricity for residential use may be paying BPL rates also.
This would mean a loss of Rs. 64 crore for the electricity utilities in just 9 minutes. Since this is only residential lighting demand, grid stability wont be an issue. @naukarshah since you asked. Bhakts of course will say this much money is okay to blind the virus or something
Read 5 tweets

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