Clip 1/3: My remarks at today’s @TorontoCouncil Board of Health meeting.
"Post-vaccine myocarditis risk increases as the age category decreases, and considering only 12 to 17-year-old males, the risk is closer to 1 in 5,000 males (from PHO). These boys are receiving Pfizer."
Clip 2/3:
"As a reminder, Pfizer’s global trials included less than 2,000 children [non-placebo] aged 12-17. Ontario’s young boys and men should not be treated as involuntary trial participants and deserve better protection from their [Ontario] Chief Medical Officer of Health."
Clip 3/3:
"In my line of work, if I miscalculate, misjudge, or inadequately balance risk and reward, I stand to lose only money. However, in public health, if miscalculations are made, members of the public can suffer real, unnecessary harm to their person."
The link to the full Board of Health meeting can be found here. The great @DonaldWelsh16 also spoke, and I will provide timestamps when they are available.
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Select highlights from Friday’s @TorontoCouncil meeting discussing Covid-19 response, w/important implications for Ontario at large.
Thank you @kristynwongtam for asking @epdevilla fair questions regarding myocarditis in young men and recent vaccine guidance changes:
2/6
In response to a question from the Speaker asking about differences between the vaccines, @epdevilla, insists they’re safe and effective, and does not publicly state the ~7-fold difference between Moderna and Pfizer in 18 to 24 males after their 2nd dose.👇🏼
3/6
@PublicHealthON, and by extension Toronto Public Health, were aware of this material difference in the Moderna/Pfizer safety profiles > 5 weeks ago. Did @epdevilla make the Board of Health or Councilors aware of this troubling difference in outcomes? What took so long?
12 to 17 Year Old Males
2nd dose myo risk is now just 1 in 8,500 doses
(avg of both Pfizer/Moderna)
This increasing rate is now approaching the 1 in 5,000 threshold cited in this week's Pfizer v Moderna change
Detail (1/3)👇
Detail (2/3)
Detail (3/3)
Chart showing the increasing rate of myocarditis in young males aged 12 - 17. Rate now approaching provinces cited incidence rate in 18 -24 yo males of 1 in 5,000 2nd Moderna doses.
I joined today's @TorontoCouncil's Board of Health meeting as a pubic speaker.
An abrupt motion reduced speaking time for participants from 5 mins to 3. My prepared remarks on myocarditis would go overtime, so I respectfully ceded my slot.
#3. Looking deeper, calculating a 2nd dose “take-up rate” (2nd doses divided by 1st doses) for each neighbourhood we see that neighbourhoods with a HIGHER proportion of non-Asian visible minorities are strongly correlated with LOWER 2nd dose take-up rates.
According to Ontario data, for those 50+, unvax’d cases, partially vax’d cases and breakthrough cases *all have ~THE SAME hospitalization/death rates*
This seems inconsistent with the notion that breakthrough cases have less severe outcomes.
2/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:
While unvax'd cases/hosps/deaths appear more prevalent (both total & per 100k), Ontario doesn’t publish *testing data* or *testing protocol* by vax'd/unvax'd.
Its unknown if C19 surveillance protocol is affecting case/hosp/death prevalence!
3/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:
Example: in the last 6 wks, 50+ unvax'd case hospitalization rates have *more than doubled* vs. the consistent ~12% for the whole pandemic.
Could the sudden jump from 12% to 27% be due to relatively more hospital testing of unvax'd patients?
The “3rd wave” of C19 was LESS DEADLY than the “2nd wave”..
In-hospital fatality rates for Toronto patients:
2nd wave: 27%
3rd wave: 14%
The 3rd wave produced ~the same # of hospitalizations as the 2nd wave (~4,000), but just ~HALF the deaths (602 vs 1,054)
2/
The stark wave-to-wave in-hospital fatality rate differences is most pronounced when assessing only NON-INTUBATED patients (90% of all hospitalizations, ICU+ward):
2nd wave: 23%
3rd wave: 11%
(less than HALF!)
3/
Looking at the data another way, for NON-INTUBATED patients, the daily # of admissions in the 3rd wave was 55% HIGHER than the 2nd wave, yet the daily fatalities was 28% LOWER… (see bottom two charts)