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Kelly Brown Profile picture
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21 Aug, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Toronto Ontario
Neighbourhood Vax Rates vs. Socio-Demographic Factors

- 1st doses consistent across city
- 2nd doses; different story

Ex. #1. Neighbourhoods with more non-Asian "visible minorities" have less 2nd dose take-up.

Vax passports disproportionately affect minorities!
#2. Neighbourhoods with more services industry workers (foodservice/accommodation/retail/other services) also have less 2nd dose take-up.

Quite counter-intuitive!

Why would @epdevilla think that employer vax-mandates would be welcomed ??
#3. Looking deeper, calculating a 2nd dose “take-up rate” (2nd doses divided by 1st doses) for each neighbourhood we see that neighbourhoods with a HIGHER proportion of non-Asian visible minorities are strongly correlated with LOWER 2nd dose take-up rates.
#4. Same dynamic in neighbourhoods with services industries worker concentrations (with slightly less strong negative correlation).
5. Whatever your thoughts are on vaccines or your status, public health and politicians in Toronto (and elsewhere) obviously got their vaccine messaging very, very wrong. Just embarrassing for @epdevilla and @JohnTory.
Sources:

Vax data: toronto.ca/home/covid-19/…
Hood profiles: open.toronto.ca/dataset/neighb…
Industry classifications:

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More from @rubiconcapital_

Kelly Brown Profile picture
18 Aug
1/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:

According to Ontario data, for those 50+, unvax’d cases, partially vax’d cases and breakthrough cases *all have ~THE SAME hospitalization/death rates*

This seems inconsistent with the notion that breakthrough cases have less severe outcomes.
2/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:

While unvax'd cases/hosps/deaths appear more prevalent (both total & per 100k), Ontario doesn’t publish *testing data* or *testing protocol* by vax'd/unvax'd.

Its unknown if C19 surveillance protocol is affecting case/hosp/death prevalence!
3/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:

Example: in the last 6 wks, 50+ unvax'd case hospitalization rates have *more than doubled* vs. the consistent ~12% for the whole pandemic.

Could the sudden jump from 12% to 27% be due to relatively more hospital testing of unvax'd patients?
Read 5 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
28 Jun
1/ Grab some coffee

The “3rd wave” of C19 was LESS DEADLY than the “2nd wave”..

In-hospital fatality rates for Toronto patients:
2nd wave: 27%
3rd wave: 14%

The 3rd wave produced ~the same # of hospitalizations as the 2nd wave (~4,000), but just ~HALF the deaths (602 vs 1,054)
2/
The stark wave-to-wave in-hospital fatality rate differences is most pronounced when assessing only NON-INTUBATED patients (90% of all hospitalizations, ICU+ward):

2nd wave: 23%
3rd wave: 11%

(less than HALF!)
3/
Looking at the data another way, for NON-INTUBATED patients, the daily # of admissions in the 3rd wave was 55% HIGHER than the 2nd wave, yet the daily fatalities was 28% LOWER… (see bottom two charts)
Read 12 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
27 Apr
This past weekend, @DonaldWelsh16 was targeted by his local community newspaper for expressing on Twitter his anxieties about the actions and tendencies of our public health advisors. Donald is a concerned citizen, and was undeserving of a smear. 🧵
lfpress.com/news/local-new…
The newspaper zeroed in on Donald recalling the early origins of the holocaust. That is of course a sensitive point of comparison (extremely mildly put) and he has since apologized and deleted the tweets in question. Here is his follow-up thread:
Apart from this parallel, the @LFPRess appears to have had no interest Donald’s message. Donald is, quite simply, a concerned citizen (& experienced scientist), who like so many see a devolution & regression in public health’s abandonment of western procedures for something else.
Read 12 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
7 Apr
1/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE
*This is not a tangential issue*
It directly impacts ICU narrative:

CCSO (live ICU) vs. CCM (gov’t patient database) continue to *DIVERGE MATERIALLY*
CCSO vs. CCM differ 3-fold!

@CriticalCareON & @publicHealthON must clarify:
2/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE

CCSO daily new C-19 admissions are now almost FORTY-FIVE PERCENT (~45%) of new C-19 hospitalizations

A rising trend since Feb 1st, up from a range in the mid-20%s thru the winter wave

And 3X higher than CCM data (still in a consistent 10-20% band).
3/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE

Note that for the entire pandemic, the national average of ICU admissions to total hospitalizations has been ~17.5%, according to PHAC weekly updates.

45% of new hospital admits being ICU admits is a massive statistical divergence!
Read 8 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
30 Mar
A cherry-picked stat is creating a media frenzy.

- A 50% ⬆️ in % of ICU admits in "younger people" vs. Dec is driven MOSTLY by admits in the 50-59 cohort!

- Yes, some ⬆️ in # of 49&U admits. BUT, the Ontario Science Table should know:

TWO data points DO NOT make a trend👇
2/
The data in the Toronto Database (as of Mar 22) are abundantly clear:

There were just FIVE (5) Toronto residents 49 & Under in ICU (1 39 & U), down from 12 as of Dec 21/’20

The next weekly Toronto database update is tomorrow, and I will update if there is a material change.
3a/

Related: an Important data note/inquiry for CCSO (@criticalcareON) & @PublicHealthON:

There appears wide divergence in ICU admits between (i) PubHealth Ontario’s Case & Contact Management (CCM) database and (ii) the CCSO data. (The Toronto data cited above is from the CCM).
Read 7 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
25 Mar
1/4
The Ontario Science Table on March 23, published this report essentially recommending AGAINST asymptomatic testing of LTC staff, citing:

-Consistent low %pos of staff in screening
-Vaccination protection of LTC residents

Key observations follow...
covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/r…
2/4
Observation 1

54% of Ontario C19 deaths were among ~80k LTC residents. OST is essentially confirming this population is protected.

Ex-LTC, Ontario C19 deaths =~23 per 100,000 (in line with flu/pneumonia deaths in 🇨🇦).
C19 Survival rate excluding outbreak deaths 70+ =99.2%
3/4
Observation 2

OST indicates/quantifies the extremely low test % positivity of LTC staff in screen testing.

This seems contradictory to the OST conclusion that community incidence of C19 is the key predictor of LTC outbreaks.

Perhaps there is an explanation? cc:@drbobbell
Read 4 tweets

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