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Kelly Brown

28 Jun, 12 tweets, 7 min read

1/ Grab some coffee

The “3rd wave” of C19 was LESS DEADLY than the “2nd wave”..

In-hospital fatality rates for Toronto patients:
2nd wave: 27%
3rd wave: 14%

The 3rd wave produced ~the same # of hospitalizations as the 2nd wave (~4,000), but just ~HALF the deaths (602 vs 1,054)

2/

The stark wave-to-wave in-hospital fatality rate differences is most pronounced when assessing only NON-INTUBATED patients (90% of all hospitalizations, ICU+ward):

2nd wave: 23%
3rd wave: 11%

(less than HALF!)

3/

Looking at the data another way, for NON-INTUBATED patients, the daily # of admissions in the 3rd wave was 55% HIGHER than the 2nd wave, yet the daily fatalities was 28% LOWER… (see bottom two charts)

4/

So, to be crystal clear:

In Toronto, if you entered the hospital with/for C-19 in the 3rd wave, your chances of surviving and leaving the hospital were…

~DOUBLE

…vs. the 2nd wave.

5/

Side note: peculiarly, despite the stark differences in NON-INTUBATED patient fatality rates, there was MINIMAL DIFFERENCE in the in-hospital fatality rate for INTUBATED patients in the 3rd wave vs. the 2nd wave..

2nd wave: 56%
3rd wave: 50%

6/

In any case, 90% of hospitalized C19 cases among Toronto patients were NON-INTUBATED (roughly the same ratio as the 2nd wave), and in the 3rd wave their survival rate was DOUBLE vs. 2nd wave.

@COVIDSciOntario

7/

This data appears to be inconsistent with the below table from the Ontario Science Table (@COVIDSciOntario), presented on April 1st, 2021, indicating the 3rd wave variants were more deadly…?

8/

The above empirical data also seems to contradict the fear narrative around the UK variant-driven 3rd wave…

@anthonyfurey

9/

Could the # of hospitalizations in the 3rd wv have been inflated by increased surveillance testing for SARS-CoV-2 among all hospitalized patients? @anthonyfurey writes that just 36% of kids admitted with C19 were there FOR C19. What about other ages?

https://twitter.com/anthonyfurey/status/1397353408739295232?s=20

@DrKaliBarrett

10/

At the very least, @DrKaliBarrett, @SteiniBrown , @BeateSander , @dfisman, @anthonydale, @IrfanDhalla, @isaacbogoch, @drmwarner, can you please explain why hospital outcomes in the 3rd wave among Toronto patients are orders-of-magnitude BETTER in the 3rd wave vs the 2nd?

11/

Would any other physicians care to comment on this data?

Why does the 3rd wave pathogen appear to have double the in-hospital survival rate vs. the 2nd wave pathogen?

End/

Thank you.

Sources: open.toronto.ca/dataset/covid-…

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Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

27 Apr

@DonaldWelsh16

This past weekend, @DonaldWelsh16 was targeted by his local community newspaper for expressing on Twitter his anxieties about the actions and tendencies of our public health advisors. Donald is a concerned citizen, and was undeserving of a smear. 🧵
lfpress.com/news/local-new…

https://twitter.com/DonaldWelsh16/status/1386127851192258564?s=20

The newspaper zeroed in on Donald recalling the early origins of the holocaust. That is of course a sensitive point of comparison (extremely mildly put) and he has since apologized and deleted the tweets in question. Here is his follow-up thread:

https://twitter.com/DonaldWelsh16/status/1386127851192258564?s=20

@LFPRess

Apart from this parallel, the @LFPRess appears to have had no interest Donald’s message. Donald is, quite simply, a concerned citizen (& experienced scientist), who like so many see a devolution & regression in public health’s abandonment of western procedures for something else.

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Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

7 Apr

@CriticalCareON

1/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE
*This is not a tangential issue*
It directly impacts ICU narrative:

CCSO (live ICU) vs. CCM (gov’t patient database) continue to *DIVERGE MATERIALLY*
CCSO vs. CCM differ 3-fold!

@CriticalCareON & @publicHealthON must clarify:

https://twitter.com/covid19mc/status/1377778480448995331?s=20

2/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE

CCSO daily new C-19 admissions are now almost FORTY-FIVE PERCENT (~45%) of new C-19 hospitalizations

A rising trend since Feb 1st, up from a range in the mid-20%s thru the winter wave

And 3X higher than CCM data (still in a consistent 10-20% band).

3/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE

Note that for the entire pandemic, the national average of ICU admissions to total hospitalizations has been ~17.5%, according to PHAC weekly updates.

45% of new hospital admits being ICU admits is a massive statistical divergence!

Read 8 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

30 Mar

https://twitter.com/COVIDSciOntario/status/1376664575014273027

A cherry-picked stat is creating a media frenzy.

- A 50% ⬆️ in % of ICU admits in "younger people" vs. Dec is driven MOSTLY by admits in the 50-59 cohort!

- Yes, some ⬆️ in # of 49&U admits. BUT, the Ontario Science Table should know:

TWO data points DO NOT make a trend👇

https://twitter.com/COVIDSciOntario/status/1376664575014273027

2/

The data in the Toronto Database (as of Mar 22) are abundantly clear:

There were just FIVE (5) Toronto residents 49 & Under in ICU (1 39 & U), down from 12 as of Dec 21/’20

The next weekly Toronto database update is tomorrow, and I will update if there is a material change.

@criticalcareON

3a/

Related: an Important data note/inquiry for CCSO (@criticalcareON) & @PublicHealthON:

There appears wide divergence in ICU admits between (i) PubHealth Ontario’s Case & Contact Management (CCM) database and (ii) the CCSO data. (The Toronto data cited above is from the CCM).

Read 7 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

25 Mar

1/4

The Ontario Science Table on March 23, published this report essentially recommending AGAINST asymptomatic testing of LTC staff, citing:

-Consistent low %pos of staff in screening
-Vaccination protection of LTC residents

Key observations follow...
covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/r…

2/4

Observation 1

54% of Ontario C19 deaths were among ~80k LTC residents. OST is essentially confirming this population is protected.

Ex-LTC, Ontario C19 deaths =~23 per 100,000 (in line with flu/pneumonia deaths in 🇨🇦).
C19 Survival rate excluding outbreak deaths 70+ =99.2%

@drbobbell

3/4

Observation 2

OST indicates/quantifies the extremely low test % positivity of LTC staff in screen testing.

This seems contradictory to the OST conclusion that community incidence of C19 is the key predictor of LTC outbreaks.

Perhaps there is an explanation? cc:@drbobbell

Read 4 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

15 Mar

@fordnation

Ontario Science Table lockdown policy, backed by @fordnation, @JohnTory & @epdevilla, appears to have dramatically shifted C-19 disease burden onto the low income, high visible minority, high household density, high service worker areas of Toronto.

Shocking #’s & visuals follow.

First, a message to vulnerable communities:

In my opinion, health/govt officials put you in harms way. They⬆️your mobility *relative to the population*, shifting community disease burden onto you. They did not care about you. They cared about themselves and their failed policy.

We know there were relative disease burden differences. But to what degree?

Read 18 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

5 Mar

1/ Mass Vaccination – Why Do We Need it in Ontario (or anywhere?)

- LTC residents nearly vaccinated (55% of C-19 mortality)
- Progress in the most vulnerable (70+, 87% of mortality, 12% of pop)

A short thread with clips & charts, based on my recent video

2/ The public health messaging is clear—everybody needs a vaccine.

Dr. DeVilla of Toronto: “the sooner we have needles in arms and the more needles in arms we have, the better off we all are.”

(all clips from March 1, 2021 pressers)

3/ Dr. Williams, the Chief Doctor in Ontario:

“Wait for your vaccine, it's coming, we want everybody vaccinated, not just some, we want everybody done in a timely pattern.”