According to Ontario data, for those 50+, unvax’d cases, partially vax’d cases and breakthrough cases *all have ~THE SAME hospitalization/death rates*
This seems inconsistent with the notion that breakthrough cases have less severe outcomes.
2/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:
While unvax'd cases/hosps/deaths appear more prevalent (both total & per 100k), Ontario doesn’t publish *testing data* or *testing protocol* by vax'd/unvax'd.
Its unknown if C19 surveillance protocol is affecting case/hosp/death prevalence!
3/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:
Example: in the last 6 wks, 50+ unvax'd case hospitalization rates have *more than doubled* vs. the consistent ~12% for the whole pandemic.
Could the sudden jump from 12% to 27% be due to relatively more hospital testing of unvax'd patients?
4/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:
If the province and C19 pundits continue to refer to the current C19 situation as a pandemic of the unvaccinated, more transparency is needed regarding vax'd/unvax'd testing surveillance/protocol, and testing data by vax status.
(note: previous weeks reports are overwritten, and the data above contains data from previously saved reports that are no longer available on the PubHealth Ontario website).
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#3. Looking deeper, calculating a 2nd dose “take-up rate” (2nd doses divided by 1st doses) for each neighbourhood we see that neighbourhoods with a HIGHER proportion of non-Asian visible minorities are strongly correlated with LOWER 2nd dose take-up rates.
The “3rd wave” of C19 was LESS DEADLY than the “2nd wave”..
In-hospital fatality rates for Toronto patients:
2nd wave: 27%
3rd wave: 14%
The 3rd wave produced ~the same # of hospitalizations as the 2nd wave (~4,000), but just ~HALF the deaths (602 vs 1,054)
2/
The stark wave-to-wave in-hospital fatality rate differences is most pronounced when assessing only NON-INTUBATED patients (90% of all hospitalizations, ICU+ward):
2nd wave: 23%
3rd wave: 11%
(less than HALF!)
3/
Looking at the data another way, for NON-INTUBATED patients, the daily # of admissions in the 3rd wave was 55% HIGHER than the 2nd wave, yet the daily fatalities was 28% LOWER… (see bottom two charts)
This past weekend, @DonaldWelsh16 was targeted by his local community newspaper for expressing on Twitter his anxieties about the actions and tendencies of our public health advisors. Donald is a concerned citizen, and was undeserving of a smear. 🧵 lfpress.com/news/local-new…
The newspaper zeroed in on Donald recalling the early origins of the holocaust. That is of course a sensitive point of comparison (extremely mildly put) and he has since apologized and deleted the tweets in question. Here is his follow-up thread:
Apart from this parallel, the @LFPRess appears to have had no interest Donald’s message. Donald is, quite simply, a concerned citizen (& experienced scientist), who like so many see a devolution & regression in public health’s abandonment of western procedures for something else.
There appears wide divergence in ICU admits between (i) PubHealth Ontario’s Case & Contact Management (CCM) database and (ii) the CCSO data. (The Toronto data cited above is from the CCM).