Good news:
we are doing increasingly better closing in on 2°C
Bad news:
it is still far from meeting the goals of the #ParisAgreement
A short thread (1/n)
The @UNEP#emissionsgap report takes stock of current pledges of countries and compares them to where emissions emissions should be going to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
The difference is called the emissions gap.
(2/n)
The latest @UNEP#EmissionsGap Report finds new and updated Nationally Determined Contributions only take 7.5% off predicted 2030 emissions compared to previous commitments. Reductions of 30% are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55% for 1.5°C. (3/n)
Various countries contribute differently to this reduction in the #EmissionsGap, with Brazil actually counteracting the decrease. (4/n)
For the first time ever, the @UNEP gap report also looks into #NetZero targets.
It finds that a total of 49 countries plus the EU have pledged a net-zero target, covering over half of global greenhouse gas emissions, over half of GDP and a third of the global population. (5/n)
#NetZero targets should not be considered in isolation. Clear near-term plans a targets should accompany them to put countries and the globe on a clear path towards achieving the net zero target. (6/n)
The reports dives deeper into the various aspects by which #NetZero targets are being distinguished, and looks into whether the near-term NDCs of countries already put them on a clear path towards achieving their net zero targets. (7/n)
(Figure 3.3)
What does all this mean for global warming?
If current NDCs and pledges are achieved by 2030, and climate action continues at the same level of ambition thereafter, warming over the course of this century will only with a 2-in-3 chance be kept to 2.7°C (range: 2.2-3.2°C). (8/n)
Achieving, in addition, the announced #NetZero targets are achieved, would reduce this these projections by about half a degree. (9/n)
In the most optimistic case:
If all conditions that are included in NDCs (such as access to finance, technology transfer, capacity building) are met and also #NetZero targets are met, we are projected to en up with a 2-in-3 chance below 2.1°C (range: 1.9-2.4°C).
(10/n)
That is closer, but still not in line with the #ParisAgreement.
Finally, these single number hide some of the variation and risk in the global warming projections. Therefore, the report also shows the full distribution. (11/n)
Under current pledges there is about a 1-in-5 chance that warming still exceeds 3°C, whereas when considering the #NetZero targets in addition, this risk is strongly reduced but still a bit more than a 1-in-8 chance remains that warming would exceed 2.5°C until 2100. (12/n)
Finally, as every year, the @UNEP report also highlights way of reducing the #EmissionsGap and this year it highlights:
- The importance of a green #COVID19 recovery
- The potential additional contributions of #methane cuts
- The role of market mechanisms.
(13/n)
The Paris Agreement sets a global goal of "holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels" /3 unfccc.int/files/meetings…
With every year passing global warming progresses. 🌍🔥
@IPCC_CH reports provide the most authoritative climate assessments but only in 5-7 year intervals.
To fill this gap over 50 scientist annually update key indicators of global climate change.
Latest update out now, a🧵
In 2021, the @IPCC_CH climate report assessed the state of the climate system and the “unequivocal” role of humans in changing it.
Since then, CO2 emissions and global warming have continued and up-to-date and trustworthy climate information is more important than ever
50 international scientists are filling this gap and have now published their second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report, providing updates on how human activity is impacting the climate system.
Breaking news on #CO2 📢🔥🌍
The new @gcarbonproject emissions numbers are out with an analysis by @CarbonBrief
What do the numbers tell us?
Spoiler alert: they are quite the party pooper for prospects of global peaking 🥳💩😢 (1)
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and the production of cement increased yet another 1.1% since 2022, reaching their highest level yet. 36.8 billion tons of CO2 in 2023!
Total CO2 emissions that include land use increased by ca. 0.5%, a tie with the 2019 record (2)
Any positive news here?
Land-use CO2 emissions have been declining slightly, but not at a pace that would be consistent with pathways meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5C ambition.
And their estimates are still accompanied by large scientific uncertainty. (3)
The latest @IPCC_CH mitigation report shows different ways in which warming can be kept to (close to) 1.5°C.
See the light-blue range in the figure below which shows global GHG emissions. (2)
Emissions also decline for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) individually, but to different levels. Only CO2 reaches net zero and goes net negative. (3)
Hot off the press - new climate research 🚨🌍🔥
Will warming stop once we reach net zero CO2 emissions?
Open-access publication @FrontiersIn assessing what we know and don't know about whether warming will stop once net zero CO2 emissions are reached. /1 frontiersin.org/journals/scien…
With #NetZero targets established as key components of international and national climate policy, it becomes ever more pertinent to closely understand what reaching net-zero emissions will deliver and what it doesn't. /2
That's why we, with an international team of scientists, take a deep look at the 'zero emissions commitment' or ZEC. In other words, how much warming (or cooling) can be expected once global emissions are brought down to zero.
For various reasons, we focus our effort on CO2. /3
The Advisory Board recommends the EU to take up a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90–95% compared to 1990 to keep the EU’s GHG budget to within 11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050. #2040ClimateTarget#GreenhouseGasEmissionsBudget
Where do these numbers come from?
2/n
To arrive at this #2040ClimateTarget advice, the @esabcc_eu implemented its earlier recommendation to the @EU_Commission to follow an approach that is systematic, transparent and guided by EU values, when preparing its EU 2040 climate target proposal. 4/n