Five things you need to know about today's Budget/SR. Do read my full analysis if/when you have time. It's in this link. But if you're pressed here's the quick 1,2,3,4,5: news.sky.com/story/sunaks-b…
1. The forecast contained some BIG changes: much higher growth. Look how much higher the dark blue line here is than the yellow line (last forecast). Also much higher inflation forecasts. This has a bearing on the fiscal numbers, so... 
2. The Chancellor got a MASSIVE windfall thanks to these forecast changes. Higher growth/inflation both push up net tax receipts. Roughy £35bn a year each year, thanks to higher tax receipts (even after the extra cost of benefits/debt interest). That is a LOT of money.
Here's another way of looking at it.
Light blue bars = impact of OBR forecast changes, bringing LOTS of money into govt.
Dark blue = policy decisions (mostly spending review).
Look how much bigger the light blue bits (money in) are than the dark blue bits (money out), meaning...
Light blue bars = impact of OBR forecast changes, bringing LOTS of money into govt.
Dark blue = policy decisions (mostly spending review).
Look how much bigger the light blue bits (money in) are than the dark blue bits (money out), meaning...
3. @RishiSunak pocketed the majority of the windfall.
Let's add a line showing the net impact on borrowing of this windfall vs Budget decisions equation.
Look at the black line. Borrowing down in every year, a lot. Is Sunak saving this money for a rainy (election) day?
Let's add a line showing the net impact on borrowing of this windfall vs Budget decisions equation.
Look at the black line. Borrowing down in every year, a lot. Is Sunak saving this money for a rainy (election) day?
4. In terms of new fiscal decisions TODAY, this Budget was a bit of a damp squib. This graphic breaks down ALL next year's Budget decisions for you. The striking thing: most of this was announced last month.
Really only a few billion of these policies were new.
Really only a few billion of these policies were new.
This is not to suggest the policies today were insignificant. The decision to change the UC taper rate in particular feels like a big move. But it's tiny, fiscally, compared with the announcement on health last month.
Again, this won't come as a surprise, but worth noting the size of the UK tax burden, now def heading for the highest sustained level in most of the post-war period:
Anyway, the number 5 thing you need to know about today? It was not a green budget. If anything it was an anti-green Budget. The net impact of freezing fuel duty and cutting Air Passenger Duty will almost certainly be to raise emissions, not lower them, ceteris paribus.
One can entirely understand why the Chancellor has done this. Why penalise motorists when they're facing the highest prices on record? But coming the very week ahead of COP29, a summit all about turning environmental promises into actions, it is jarring, to say the least.
Anyway, as I say, do read my full analysis, which you can find on the @SkyNews website, or watch our coverage tonight. Lots from me, @BethRigby and the whole team on everything Budget related. If you can stomach any more... news.sky.com/story/sunaks-b…
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