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29 Oct, 7 tweets, 2 min read
X : What is going to happen with serverless? Is it a fad?
Me : Does this help?
X : I'm not sure I follow.
Me : You can't read the table or you don't want to?
X : Be helpful.
Me : Hmmm. Ok, serverless started in 2014, so today is +7 years. Let us pick a time in the future, say 2035 which is +21 years.
X : And?
Me : Now, let us look at cloud ...
Me : For cloud, +7 years was 2013, +21 years would be 2027 since cloud started in 2006. If you ask people today will cloud dominate in 2027, everyone will pretty much say "yes" except the hard core laggards. It already exceeds data centre spend and is growing faster ...
Me : ... but if you go back to 2013, it was a different picture. Lots of CxOs / analysts claiming it was niche, future was still virtual data centre for the enterprise, build your own cloud, security, lock-in blah blah blah etc etc.
X : And?
Me : Same today with serverless.
X : What about Kubernetes?
Me : See OpenStack, VCE, virtual data centres etc ... it all has a role in managing legacy but it's not the future.
X : It has lots of support.
Me : So did OpenStack, VCE, virtual data centres etc. What can I say? They are wrong but time will decide.
X : Have you seen the trillion dollar paradox - a16z.com/2021/05/27/cos…
Me : Yep. If you happen to be the scale of dropbox with a specialised niche there might be a transient case for this.
X : Transient?
Me : No different from Zynga.
X : Who?
Me : Really? I feel very old.
Me : Farmville?
X : Oh, I don't play games.
Me : Pity. There are plenty of useful lessons in that industry.

• • •

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More from @swardley

Simon Wardley Profile picture
28 Oct
Consuming 15kWh to 22kWh per day but generating around 9 to 14kWh ... so, my worst day this week was actually 9kWh from the grid but all overnight (econ 7). Need to get that consumption down. If I double the array over the next two years, I should get self generation into Nov.
Need to do some more work on insulation and change out the electric boiler for a more efficient form. Also, my new vegetable garden should be up and running soon for planting. I did look at buying some local farmland which came up for auction ... alas 14.3 acres was a bit much.
When I say a bit much, the rest of the family was not convinced by my argument ... stilll, there is so much to be done - roof extension, externsion at the back of the home, new more efficient bathrooms, kitchen refit (to be worked out), boiler with air heat exchanger etc.
Read 5 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
26 Oct
A useful reminder that COP26 is happening soon ->
X : What do you think will happen at COP 26?
Me : We will probably move from stage 2 to stage 3 -
X : Why so pessimistic?
Me : Have you seen the state of the media in Britain today?
Read 8 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
26 Oct
Fairly dated practice (i.e. common knowledge in some circles for 15 years) but still a good article by @HarvardBiz (cough, am I really saying that?) on use of Agile -

NB. There is a world of difference between using Agile Methods (see Map) and ... Image
@HarvardBiz ... "being Agile" which requires the use of appropriate methods. This was explained in Salamon and Storey's innovation paradox (2002) but still ... nice to see HBR consistently catching up.

The maps are from 2012. I could dig up earlier ones but, I like these. Image
It is really important to understand that as things evolve their characteristics change and how you manage them also has to change ... Image
Read 16 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
26 Oct
This is the sound of a thousand home grown kubernetes or other private clouds for reasons of "security" and protecting critical data such as the executive scores on the last golf round or the new recipe for "Mr Tasty's Cheese and Onion Crisps" going pop ->
X : Alternative headline: "GCHQ bow to the inevitable."
Me : Yes, it was inevitable and it's all three agencies -
X : Will there be a reaction?
Me : Do you mean from legacy vendors? Inevitable. Expect lots of lobbying of politicians etc to try and change this. It's going to be hard to continue to spread the FUD of cloud and sell yesterday's tech to corporate laggards if this stands.
Read 13 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
25 Oct
Hmmm ... saved up, bought a piano for my partner's birthday ... doesn't sound quite right. Need to return it. Oh god, I didn't buy from Amazon. Already anticipating lots of weasel words, deceptive behaviour and attempts by slippery retailers to avoid refunding ...
... when am I going to learn, never buy from anyone other than Amazon. It just works with Amazon, no fuss, they always come out fighting on your side etc. Every other retailer I've ever dealt with always seems to be trying to shiv you ... so here goes ...
... 5 minutes into the call, I'm already having to argue the case, now pointing to their own T&C's on the website, now they want to call me back ... tomorrow. Prepare for another round. FFS why oh why did I not buy from Amazon? It's always the same crap when I don't.
Read 9 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
23 Oct
X : When are you going to write some papers on strategy?
Me : No rush. People are still learning to map and most have never seen a map. More than enough value in communication, challenge, basic anticipation and applying doctrine (principles) for most for a decade or two.
X : But we need a strategy.
Me : Ok. The strategy is to stop punching yourself in the face as a company. For that most will need communication, challenge, situational awareness, applying doctrine etc ... for a decade or two.
X : I need more.
Me : I'm in no rush. Never have been.
X : I don't get you.
Me : Hmmm. Did you ever see my map of mapping?
X : Yes
Me : You understand where I am in conflict, where I am co-operating / collaborating with others and building an "army" of mappers?
X : Sort of, but ...
Read 10 tweets

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