Thread by @NateBrownNews

I’ve been going through the proposed legislative maps approved yesterday and matching Senate incumbents to their new districts. Mute this thread if you don’t care, it’s going to get long. 1/? #AZLeg

Many thanks to @AndyfromTucson, who mapped the districts on Google Maps, making my job easy. I used the addresses in our legislative directory (the “green book”) and on financial disclosure statements to determine which districts incumbents are in.

https://twitter.com/AndyfromTucson/status/1453880734641360902?s=20

@AndyfromTucson The map starts with 14 D and 16 R districts, same as now. But some incumbents – mostly Democrats in Tucson and Republicans in the Phoenix suburbs – will have choices to make as to who runs where.

@AndyfromTucson Alston will live in what’s being called LD1 now, it’s very blue and has a lot of overlap with her current district northeast of downtown Phoenix.

@AndyfromTucson Barto will live in LD3. It’s a Republican district, but it also includes Fountain Hills, where Kavanagh lives and presumably will be running for Senate.

@AndyfromTucson Barto could run against Kavanagh or try the adjoining LD4. Marsh lives in LD4; it’s close but Democratic-leaning, voted Biden and Kelly by a few points. The next closest red district to her is LD28, which will be open. (Livingston lives there but he’s running for treasurer.)

@AndyfromTucson Borrelli gets D30, the reddest district in the state, basically everything from north of Yuma to south of St. George. Looks a lot like his current one. No big changes for him.

@AndyfromTucson Bowie (who isn’t running again) gets D12, which is pretty blue. And Boyer lives in LD27, which is pretty red.

Espinoza, who is running for Contreras’ Senate seat, lives in LD22, which looks different from their current district but is still safely Democratic.

@AndyfromTucson Stahl Hamilton lives in D21 on this map, as does Gabaldon. It’s a blue district that goes from east Tucson to Nogales. However Stahl Hamilton is also close to the line with D20, a Tucson-centric district that doesn’t have an incumbent.

@AndyfromTucson Fann gets D5, a Prescott-centered district not that different from her current one. Gonzales and Otondo are both in D23, which goes from the western edge of Tucson to Yuma. Gowan gets D19, a red district in the southeastern corner of the state similar to his current one.

@AndyfromTucson Gray (who isn’t running for re-election), lives in LD29, although Payne, who is running to succeed him, lives over the line in LD25. Both are pretty safe red districts.

@AndyfromTucson Kerr is getting moved into a very blue LD22, although she isn’t far from either LD16 -- very red but centered on Casa Grande/Coolidge and where Shope lives – or LD25, where Payne lives.

@AndyfromTucson Leach would be in LD17, the Marana/Oro Valley/Tanque Verde district. Mendez is in LD8 -- Tempe, part of Scottsdale and the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community.

@AndyfromTucson Mesnard gets a very purple LD13 – Trump and Kelly both narrowly carried it. Petersen lives in it too, but he’s close to the line with LD14, a safe red district that includes Queen Creek and doesn’t have a Senate incumbent.

@AndyfromTucson Teran is in D26, a very blue district that takes in much of Glendale and the Alhambra neighborhood. Pace would probably run in D10, which is safe Republican. (I have two addresses for him; one is in D10, the other is in neighboring Democratic D9 but it’s literally on the line.)

@AndyfromTucson Peshlakai lives in D6, which includes Flagstaff and the reservations in northern and eastern Arizona. So does Rogers, although her Flagstaff address is a five-minute walk from D7, a very red district that looks a lot like her current one.

@AndyfromTucson Quezada is running for treasurer anyway, but on the new map he would live in LD25, a red West Valley district. The new map would put most of Glendale in LD26 and Maryvale in LD24, both of which would be safely Democratic.

Chavez and Andrade have filed to run for Quezada's seat. Chavez is in the new LD24; Andrade is in the new LD25, but close to either 24 or 26.

Rios gets LD11, a very blue district that includes Laveen, South Phoenix and downtown. Steele gets LD18, a blue district that includes parts of Tucson and Casas Adodes.

Townsend has a few possibilities. Her Apache Junction address is in LD7 (i.e. the successor to Rogers’ current district), but right by where 7, 3, and 15 meet. But if she wants to run in a more Mesa or Gilbert-centered district, 10 and 14 could be options.

The map creates two new, light blue districts – LD 2 in North Phoenix and LD9 in Mesa – that don’t appear to have incumbent senators.

That’s what I got for now. I might go through later to see where the House incumbents live. We’ll see over the course of the next month how these maps change and how these affect where people run and who runs.

Also, a note about the district partisanship ratings -- the overall rating of 14 Democratic, 16 Republican is based on the last two presidential and U.S. Senate races and 2018 governor, attorney general and secretary of state.

Those elections had different results. Ducey won 20/30 districts, but Kelly won 16/30. Biden and Sinema won 15/30. Trump won 17/30 in 2016. Four districts (4, 13, 16, 23) were within 5 points in the 2020 presidential and four (4, 13, 16, 25) within 5 for 2020 U.S. Senate.