So NCRP data highlights what I have long feared is a ticking time bomb in current reform efforts: even though over half the ppl in US prisons are there for violence, there has been almost NO change in the numbers in for violence... in fact, all are UP, except for robbery.
The NCRP has data on 20 states whose prison pops dropped from 2009-19; they drove 85% of the national decline.
These are the changes over those states for violent crimes. Homicide, sex, and assault-other all up. There's a net decline, but ONLY due to robbery.
These are the changes over those states for violent crimes. Homicide, sex, and assault-other all up. There's a net decline, but ONLY due to robbery.
Note that the data only goes to 2019, so can't see what happened during Covid.
But these are the declines in those states for non-violent crimes. The non-violent crimes explain over 98% of the net decline in the states that saw overall declines.
But these are the declines in those states for non-violent crimes. The non-violent crimes explain over 98% of the net decline in the states that saw overall declines.
To many, I'm sure this seems like a feature, not a bug. But prison is an ineffective response to most violence as well.
And what these numbers show is that, a decade into the reform push--even before Covid and 2020 homicide spike--there was little to no movement on violence.
And what these numbers show is that, a decade into the reform push--even before Covid and 2020 homicide spike--there was little to no movement on violence.
The 2020 homicide spike, of course, makes any sort of discussion along these lines even harder.
But there was a decade to try to reshape the way we talk and think about violence, and it feels like a lot of it was squandered.
But there was a decade to try to reshape the way we talk and think about violence, and it feels like a lot of it was squandered.
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