1. Why would Erdoğan prepare for the meeting @POTUS @JoeBiden by attacking near US forces in Syria? IMO it's because he's terrified. One week ago the US Court of Appeals ruled that the Turkish state-owned #Halkbank had no sovereign immunity because conduct in violation of US
2. law was done as part of commercial rather than official conduct, and thus, under US law, not subject to sovereign immunity. My reporting on the Zarrab case since 2015 left me with the district impression that there were connections between the crimes & top Turkish officials.
3. Now that the issue of whether there is any immunity for the commercial criminal conduct, those Turkish officials may soon be named as defendants in a superseding indictment. For an autocrat like Erdoğan, manipulating the court system is just business as usual.
4. He likely thinks that if he threatens to attack US partners fighting #Daesh and puts forces on the border to show he means it, Biden will shun the fight, will cave like #45 did. Killing of an al-Qaeda and #Daesh fighters recently, both of whom were
5. were part of the Turkish occupation force in Syria, should have put Erdoğan on notice that the US is not about to back down. But Erdoğan is a bully, and until you bloody a bully's nose, they seldom back down. Joe Biden from Scranton knows that.
6. I don't think the 2nd Cir has vacated the stay to permit the criminal case to proceed, but I expect that may be coming. #Halkbank can appeal to SCOTUS. If I'm correct, Erdoğan is desperate and, like all desperate people, potentially dangerous. @WHNSC @WHCOS @SDNYnews

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More from @TimInHonolulu

29 Oct
Not sure, but it looks like something blew up at SpaceX or nearby.
Looks like the cam panned away from the launch site so not at SpaceX but in the same area.
Here is the live cam.
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
1. The manner in which the two contrarian @SenateDems @SenatorSinema and @Sen_JoeManchin have behaved is unprecedented. I have stated that IMO they exhibit behavior that would be consistent with having been bribed likely by the Koch Network. Today I watched House @GOPLeader in
2. his presser and it left me with another similar, but different, conclusion. What if the payments were simply to act as secret proxies for the entire @SenateGOP? TFG ongoing plot to overthrow the government
3. makes it impossible for the GQP to negotiate with @TheDemocrats. What if the money behind the GQP, just bribed the two “mavericks” to play the role of @LeaderMcConnell, Charles Koch’s puppet? It would explain why the Mavericks could never explain their positions, because
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
1. I haven't previously looked at the critical New Hampshire Senate race between incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Chris Sununu. Base on a NORML report on polling and Sununu's strident anti-marijuana stand, @Maggie_Hassan just needs to support recreational use
2. and I think she can pick up a solid lead and hold it through the finish line. Joining in on @SenSchumer's messaging would be a clear winner.

Here's the recent polling:
New Hampshire: UNH Granite State Poll (May 2021) Seventy-five percent of New Hampshire
3. residents (86 percent of Democrats, 83 percent of Independents, and 62 percent of Republicans) strongly or somewhat support legalizing marijuana for recreational use. norml.org/marijuana/libr…

Sununu's position is contrary to his claimed libertarian credentials and could
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
1. I fully realize that the coming dystopian electoral nightmare being predicted on @MSNBC in coming elections is a real danger. But I have to fall back to basic political science that says it will depress traditional GOP turnout. If @TheDemocrats & @harrisonjaime are smart it
2. could result in a #GQP rout. Let’s suppose that the crazies do dominate the GQP primaries. They will be getting the support of #45’s hate centered ideologues but that group is a very loud minority. What will traditional suburban #GOP do? Will they join the army
3. of anti-Democratic zombies? The traditional view says they just won’t vote. And as the #GQP has generally taken away the mail-in voting that was largely responsible for the GOP turning out a majority on Election Day these older conservatives are being told they must join
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
1. @SenWhitehouse was US Attorney during the same time my late brother worked with AG Garland as Janet Reno's man Friday. My brother handled all top-level #FISA related matters. It's an educated guess, but a program that is new since then is 702. That is what I reported the
2. other day as would likely be producing intercepts of the members of the House, Senate and White House conspiring to overthrow. If I'm right, it means, as I have suspected, that foreign adversaries were involved at least in the collection of signals intelligence on 9/6. We
3. then sucked that data into the eye of Sauron. That is then used to obtain @FBIWFO warrants and wire taps to surveil the ongoing criminal activity. We may never hear the first tranche of intercepts due to the secrecy surrounding their collection. But, like a mobster sitting
Read 5 tweets
26 Oct
1. Watching the attack unfold on Jan 6, my first thought was that every foreign intelligence officer in one of the most surveilled cities on earth would be going out of their minds scooping up comms of members of Congress and the Executive branch who had joined the conspiracy.
2. Though unwarranted intercepts are illegal and can't be used in court when first obtained illegally by government actors, I know of few ways for keeping them out when we grab them from our adversaries who scooped them up in the first instance.
3. Knowing who our adversaries can blackmail was an urgent matter that had to be completed prior to directing law enforcement at the bad actors. My belief at the time why TFG tried to position one of his conspirators as NSA General Counsel was because that position is the
Read 7 tweets

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