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1 Nov, 7 tweets, 3 min read
TESLA REPORT - HOLON INVESTMENT 20211000

Here is the report that we have mentioned previously

This thread includes several charts that we have prepared to show their viewpoint

patreon.com/posts/tesla-re…
This shows Tesla's historical Revenues and Holon Investment's Revenue projection through 2050 ImageImage
Holon is projecting 14.5 million units in 2030 Image
Telsa has repeatedly stated targets of 20 million units and a continuous growth rate of +50% per annum

We are currently projecting 20 million units in 2030 and 25 million units in 2031 ImageImageImageImage
Note in particular the transition in Holon's expected Revenue growth rate around 2026 - 2030 Image
This shows Holon's projection for Tesla's Net Income through 2050

We have converted this to the equivalent of a Market Capitalization using a constant P/E Multiple of 20x

As you can see, this shows Tesla passing $10 trillion in Market Cap around 2040 Image
Note once again the very visible change in assumed growth trajectory between 2026 and 2030 Image

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More from @jpr007

JPR007 Profile picture
3 Nov
INTERESTING CHART

It should serve to remind us that the Enterprise Values that we see in charts like mine are not telling the whole story

Legacy OEMs have outsourced important functionalities to third parties in ways that Tesla has not done Image
This has led to huge amounts of corporate value being sucked out of them

The first and most obvious are their dealerships structures

Legacy OEMs Revenues are smaller than they should be relative to the prices that the retail customers are actually paying

- see Kelley Blue Book
The second are all the value-creating activities that they have outsourced to their Tier 1 and Tier 2 Suppliers ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
3 Nov
"Uber signs Tesla deal to let London drivers access electric vehicles"

Uber customers’ chances of being picked up by a Tesla car have increased after the ride-hailing app secured a partnership with the US manufacturer
The agreement means Uber drivers in London will be able to use clean air funds to buy or lease a Tesla car at discounted rates from Wednesday

Drivers could already use the money to switch to electric vehicles (EVs) made by other manufacturers such as Nissan Hyundai and Kia
Uber has raised more than £135 million through adding a clean air fee for all trips in London since January 2019

Funds have built up for each driver depending on how many miles they have clocked up
Read 9 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
1 Nov
TESLA - CHINA PRODUCTION AND MARKET DATA 20211030

We have prepared an analysis of Tesla's Production and Sales from the Shanghai factory since the start of 2020

- using what we believe to be the best data sources available

patreon.com/posts/tesla-ch…
All the data is on a single worksheet, but we share it here in two parts for simplicity

From left to right it shows :

- Production

- Inventory

- Wholesales

- Exports

- Retail Sales

- New Insured Vehicles

- Tesla Market Share

- China EV Market

- China Auto Market Image
In the second sheet we have analyzed the monthly Production output using our own guesstimates of the production scheduling metrics for each of Model 3 and Model Y

- Calendar days

- Work days

- Number of Shift Crews

- Hours per Shift

- Daily Hours

- Weekly Hours Image
Read 7 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
29 Oct
FT THINKS TESLA IS A "DILEMMA FOR INVESTORS"

The current angst that the FT is reporting in some parts of the "investment community" tells us more about the woefully inadequate state of most investment analysis than it does about the fair value of TSLA shares
Let's examine this a bit more closely :

1. Equity Investment is about buying growth

- and the best growth to buy is that which will continue for a long time

2. To be able to see and buy growth you have to look out out into the future at least 5 years and preferably 10 years
3. When Buying a stock it is largely irrelevant what today's or next year's earnings are or what today's or next year's P/E Multiple is or will be

- and yet that is all you hear most of the time
Read 9 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
29 Oct
Arriva's first hydrogen bus only arrived in the Achterhoek this week

And it has already caught fire

The fire department says it can only extinguish the fire on the bus from the outside

There was also a regular bus in the shed besides the new bus
gld.nl/nieuws/7427452…
"It's not nice that the brand new and first hydrogen bus has burned down," says an Arriva spokesperson

"But we think it's more important that everyone is in safety and no one was injured"

The new bus was to be used in the Achterhoek region

Which line is not known
Arriva cannot yet say whether there will be a new hydrogen bus

At carrier Arriva on Industriestraat in Doetinchem, a large fire raged in a shed on Thursday afternoon

As the hydrogen-powered bus burned down the fire caused the rest of the building to go up in flames as well
Read 7 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
29 Oct
Tesla has booked 45 GWh of Lithium Iron Phosphate LFP batteries from Chinese power cell giant CATL for next year's sales plan, primarily for the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, 36kr reported today
cnevpost.com/2021/10/29/tes…
In addition to booking 45 GWh of batteries from CATL, Tesla plans to add to existing orders, and the two sides are already in talks, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter

CATL would not comment, the report said
Tesla and Panasonic's Nevada battery plant will also expand to produce more than 40 GWh in 2022, and together with supplies from LG Chem, Tesla's 2022 sales will be at least 1.5 million units, the report said, citing industry sources
Read 11 tweets

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