Thread by @jpr007

TESLA - CHINA PRODUCTION AND MARKET DATA 20211030

We have prepared an analysis of Tesla's Production and Sales from the Shanghai factory since the start of 2020

- using what we believe to be the best data sources available

patreon.com/posts/tesla-ch…

All the data is on a single worksheet, but we share it here in two parts for simplicity

From left to right it shows :

- Production

- Inventory

- Wholesales

- Exports

- Retail Sales

- New Insured Vehicles

- Tesla Market Share

- China EV Market

- China Auto Market

In the second sheet we have analyzed the monthly Production output using our own guesstimates of the production scheduling metrics for each of Model 3 and Model Y

- Calendar days

- Work days

- Number of Shift Crews

- Hours per Shift

- Daily Hours

- Weekly Hours

From these metrics we have derived an average Hourly Production Rate for each line in each month

We have then used this to estimate Production in 2021 Q4

We have assumed that :

- Line 1 Model 3 is now running at an average rate of 34.0 vehicles per hour

- Line 2 Model Y is now running at an average rate of 36.0 vehicles per hour

Line 1 is running higher than we had expected

Line 2 is running lower than we had expected

We shall recalibrate these estimates once we see the actual numbers for October 2021

At present these estimates suggest a total Production of 144,480 units for 2021 Q4

- 70,176 units of Model 3

- 74,304 units of Model Y

FOOTNOTE :

There is an obvious error in the November estimates, as November should only have 30 days and not 31 days

This will be corrected in the recalibration, and will lead to a reduction of -816 units of Model 3 and -864 units of Model Y for a total of -1,680 units